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What messages are propagandist Telegram channels spreading ahead of the U.S. presidential elections, and how do propagandists link the election outcomes to peace in Ukraine?
On November 5, 2024, the United States is set to hold its presidential elections. In some parts of the country, voting is already underway, as absentee mail-in voting is allowed in Washington, D.C., and eight states. According to CBS News, incumbent President Joe Biden has already cast his early vote by mail.
The main contenders for the presidency are Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump. Predicting a winner is currently impossible, as the polling gap between the two is within the margin of error. A Reuters poll conducted between October 25 and 27 found the difference to be just 1%, smaller than the survey’s 3% margin of error.
The election results will directly impact the course of the war in Ukraine, given the candidates’ differing stances on U.S. foreign policy.
Kamala Harris has pledged to continue supporting Ukraine in her campaign platform, while Donald Trump dodged a debate question on whether he wants Ukraine to win the war against Russia. In October 2024, national U.S. media outlets published a collection of Trump’s past conversations with Putin from 2021. Meanwhile, global media, including The Guardian, reported on frequent communications between Trump ally Elon Musk and the Russian president. However, Trump’s stance cannot be deemed unequivocally pro-Russian, as he has stated that Ukraine’s survival is crucial not only for Europe but also for the U.S.
Daily dynamics of publications in 161 propaganda Telegram channels from October 22 to 2:00 PM on October 31, 2024. Data provided by LetsData.
The intensification of propaganda related to the U.S. elections is also linked to the BRICS Summit held in Kazan from October 22 to 24, during which Putin delivered a speech. Notably, he stated that Russia is ostensibly open to cooperation with the U.S. after the elections but added, “If they don’t want it, then so be it.” This quote was disseminated in 607 messages across eight propaganda Telegram channels between October 22 and October 31, two weeks before the elections. The highest number of daily messages in the sample occurred on weekdays. There were also spikes in activity on October 23 and 24, coinciding with the BRICS Summit. Messages in the sample featured keywords such as “elections,” “U.S. president,” “Trump,” and “Harris.” The data was provided by LetsData.
Gently Overshadowing Kamala Harris
Most authors of posts in propaganda Telegram channels focused on Trump’s positive traits, portraying him as having a “certain advantage” over his opponent. One channel with 117,000 subscribers wrote:
“Overall, Trump is the quintessential American. What will happen if he wins? Let’s see: a stronger dollar; lower corporate taxes; reduced government spending; lower inflation; and, finally, he’ll finish building the wall on the Mexican border.”
Messages about Trump also sought to emphasize his “generosity” toward his opponent, presenting him as willing to do anything to “Make America Great Again.”
For example, The New York Times journalists reported on Trump’s plans if he were to regain the presidency, which included a crackdown on illegal immigration, using the Justice Department to prosecute his adversaries to consolidate presidential power, and potentially reducing military aid to Ukraine. According to the journalists, the U.S. might attempt to “pull back” militarily, cutting aid volumes.
The same channel had this to say about Harris:
“Kamala: she’ll tear down the wall Trump built, raise corporate taxes from 21% to 28%, and hand out helicopter money to the poor.”
Some posts revolved around Trump’s campaign efforts, including his half-hour stint working at a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, where he fried potatoes, prepared meals, and handed orders to drivers. Over 40 of the 607 analyzed posts referenced the keyword “McDonald’s” in various forms — accounting for nearly 7% of the sample. Russian propagandists portrayed Trump as significantly “closer” to the people than his opponent. A Telegram channel with 500,000 subscribers, describing itself as a “political news hub,” wrote:
“During his campaign rally in Pennsylvania, the presidential candidate personally manned the grill and fried fries for customers. Then, he served the guests. He worked there for half an hour, but it was enough to capture the smiling faces of people receiving orders from the former U.S. president. This was Trump’s way of demonstrating his connection to the working class.”
Pro-Kremlin journalist Yulia Vityazeva (Lozanova), found guilty in 2023 by the Halytskyi District Court of Lviv for collaborationism and crimes against Ukraine’s national security, criticized both candidates. On her Telegram channel, she described the U.S. elections as a “never-ending circus sideshow,” condemned Trump for the number of sanctions imposed on Russia during his presidency, and characterized Kamala Harris as a politician who “amounts to nothing and can’t even string two coherent words together.”
Among the analyzed information, there were also news-style posts about Kamala Harris. For instance, a Telegram channel with 139,000 subscribers shared news that “Kamala Harris’s campaign has appeared in the video game Fortnite. Players can visit Freedom Town island, filled with posters supporting Harris and her running mate.”
In the analyzed posts, propagandists, even when resorting to obscene language, attributed such remarks to “authorities.” For example, a channel with 33,000 subscribers shared information that “a former Vatican ambassador to the U.S. calls Harris ‘a hellish monster who obeys Satan.’” While the quote was accurate, propagandists omitted that the archbishop had been excommunicated and no longer represented the Catholic Church.
Telegram channels from the sample with fewer than 100,000 subscribers primarily concentrated on Trump, calling him the absolute “leader” in the presidential race. One channel with over 70,000 subscribers wrote:
“Trump, leading the race, promises to quickly end the conflict in Ukraine. And how Kyiv will feel about the terms of the war’s end doesn’t concern Trump at all.”
Some channels that echo pro-Kremlin rhetoric accused the U.S. authorities of voter fraud more than a week before the voting date. For instance, an occupation-linked Telegram channel with 40,000 subscribers wrote:
“The country of fake democracy — that’s what the upcoming U.S. elections are about. Millions of citizens have already voted early, but the legitimacy of their choice is highly questionable. From past election campaigns in the U.S., it’s clear that fairness and justice are not in play.”
Russian propagandists seem to avoid overtly favoring either U.S. presidential candidate. By embracing ambiguity, they likely aim to avoid misjudging the winner. This strategy of “bombarding with versions” increases their chances of not being proven wrong while maintaining their image as pseudo-news media and gradually discrediting Kamala Harris.
U.S. Elections and Peace in Ukraine
Propaganda Telegram channels linked posts about the U.S. elections to Ukraine, predicting far-reaching consequences for the course of the war with Russia and its impact on peace in Europe.
A Russian propaganda Telegram channel with 280,000 subscribers claimed that the Kremlin is preparing two alternative scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine, depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Both plans supposedly involve presenting Ukraine with an “ultimatum to begin negotiations.” According to the propagandist, if Trump wins, Putin will offer a “relatively soft option” that includes creating a “buffer zone and demilitarizing Ukraine.” The second plan, tied to Kamala Harris’s potential victory, is described as “tough,” with Russia allegedly demanding a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from partially occupied regions and the establishment of a 200-kilometer buffer zone on Ukrainian territory.
This message was later shared by three pro-Russian Ukrainian Telegram channels with a combined audience of 1.2 million subscribers. These propagandists expanded on the original claim, speculating about the possibility of Iran signing a pact to support Russia, akin to its relationship with North Korea, implying Iran’s entry into the war against Ukraine. Such publications aim to spread fear and hopelessness within Ukrainian society to demoralize it.
Some messages suggested potential territorial changes in Ukraine in exchange for peace following the U.S. elections. A propaganda Telegram channel with 280,000 subscribers alleged that “Russia supports the China-Brazil initiative on Ukraine, which envisions ending the war along the current front line.” Propagandists claimed that Russia plans to leverage the support of the Global South to push this plan after the U.S. elections.
Another propagandist, with 73,000 Telegram subscribers, reported that Europe intends to admit Ukraine into NATO after hostilities end, allegedly considering “Moscow’s territorial demands on the ground” and that this would happen “immediately after the U.S. elections.” They referred to Putin’s comments at the BRICS Summit, claiming Russia is “ready to consider any peace plans that reflect realities on the ground.” This effectively constitutes an ultimatum, demanding acceptance of Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and the UN Charter rather than a “peace plan.”
Propaganda Telegram channels frequently quoted Putin’s BRICS Summit statements, including claims about “attempts of the Kyiv regime to interfere in the U.S. election process.” They alleged that Ukraine’s military operation in the Kursk region was intended to demonstrate to American voters that their contributions to Ukraine were justified and that Kyiv sought to produce such a narrative “at any cost, even at the expense of its soldiers’ lives.” These messages aligned with earlier propaganda themes portraying the Kursk operation as futile and doomed, narratives used since the first days of Ukraine’s offensive in the region.
A pro-Russian Ukrainian Telegram channel with 434,000 subscribers linked Putin’s recent decision to conduct strategic nuclear deterrence drills to the U.S. elections. Propagandists argued that Moscow was sending a warning, as Democrats might “abandon their pacifist role” and “leave unfavorable conditions for negotiations between Russia and the U.S.,” presumably referring to the potential delivery of new long-range missiles to Ukraine.
In the same channel, propagandists suggested that due to U.S. election distractions, “now is the ideal moment for Russia to deploy Koreans into combat.” They claimed that neither Biden nor Trump would react to such actions because “Americans want their leaders to focus on them, not Ukraine.” The propagandist wrote that under these circumstances, the U.S. would not intervene, and after the elections, “the opportunity for a response would be obsolete.”
In addition to spreading hopelessness and helplessness, propagandists sought to portray Ukraine’s leadership as “insane.” For instance, a pro-Russian Telegram channel with a million-strong audience claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is supposedly preparing for Trump’s victory by “raising the stakes to derail his plan for a quick resolution of the war.” This “raising of stakes,” according to the propagandist, involves alleged plans by Kyiv to provoke Russia into a nuclear strike on Ukraine. They speculated that Zelenskyy could achieve this “desired outcome” through three means: “massive strikes on industrial facilities and the Kremlin,” “starting a war against Transnistria to drag Moldova into the conflict,” or “creating a major tragedy or catastrophe.”
Russia is unlikely to cease its attempts to interfere in the U.S. electoral process. The Associated Press published a report detailing a Russian disinformation campaign targeting the U.S. federal government. This operation involved discrediting the government’s response to Hurricanes Helen and Milton, which struck in early October. According to AP, Russian state media and social media users circulated false statements from government officials and fabricated photos of storm damage. The article’s authors state that this disinformation effort is part of a broader campaign aimed at manipulating political discourse ahead of the presidential election.
Another case of Russian interference in the U.S. election process was reported by The Guardian on October 26. The article revealed that Russian users disseminated a fake video showing the destruction of mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania, a critical swing state. In the U.S., swing states are those where voters do not consistently favor either Democratic or Republican candidates. They are a decisive factor in American elections, as the candidate who gains more support in swing states wins the election. According to The Guardian, the fake video shared on the social platform X (formerly Twitter) depicted a man inspecting mail-in ballots and tearing up those cast for Donald Trump.
As the U.S. presidential election draws near, Russian agitprop continues to rely on propaganda and disinformation. Russia seeks to strengthen its negotiating position with Ukraine and the West by deepening military cooperation with North Korea and Iran, expanding alternative international frameworks like BRICS, and waging an information war. The goal of Russian propaganda is to project the image of a powerful state capable of responding to potential threats, including through the use of nuclear weapons. At the same time, propagandists portray Russia as peace-loving and open to negotiations while claiming that Ukraine and Western countries “refuse to listen.” Messages about Russia as a “peaceful state” are spread both in anonymous Telegram channels and by Russian officials, including President Putin, during the BRICS Summit.
Main page illustration: Natalia Lobach
