Українською читайте тут.
In this article, we analyze one of the main messages spread by pro-Russian telegram channels this week - the devaluation of the first successful use of American ATACMS ballistic missiles by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. We wrote in detail about the telegram channels that poison the Ukrainian information space here.
On October 17, 2023, Ukraine launched its first strike with the newly delivered American ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles. These missiles have a longer range than previously supplied missiles. Also, due to their ballistic trajectory, they are more difficult to track and intercept by Russian air defense systems than the previously supplied by the French and British Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles. According to US officials, Ukraine has received ATACMS with a range of up to 165 km and a cluster warhead; Defense Express, a military affairs portal, reported that it is a version of the MGM-140. This range allows the missiles to hit almost the entire occupied territory, except for the southern part of Crimea.
Operation Dragonfly, an attack on airfields in the temporarily occupied Berdiansk and Luhansk, resulted in the destruction of enemy equipment and manpower. According to the telegram channel of the Special Operations Forces, as of 13:12 on October 17, up to nine helicopters were hit at once (according to the General Staff, which was cited by Ukrayinska Pravda on the morning of October 18, six), an air defense launcher, special equipment located at airfields, runways were damaged, and enemy manpower was lost. President Zelenskyy confirmed the use of missiles. "Today, I am especially grateful to the United States," he said in his address to the nation, "Our agreements with President Biden are being implemented. And they are being implemented very carefully - ATACMS has proven itself."
There have been discussions about supplying Ukraine with American long-range ATACMS missiles. Back in January 2023, the Pentagon said that these weapons were "not the right time" because the United States did not want to escalate the situation in this way. In the summer, both parties in the US Congress supported sending long-range missiles to Ukraine, CNN reported. On September 22, 2023, it was reported that the issue of supplying ATACMS missiles to Ukraine had been resolved. Journalists of the US edition of NBC News, citing informed US officials and a congressional representative, reported that Joe Biden had promised him a certain number of ATACMS missiles for the Armed Forces of Ukraine during talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. On October 9, 2023, The New Yorker wrote that the US president had allegedly approved the transfer of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in early fall, before meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart. However, there have been no official reports of ATACMS missiles in service with the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The Biden administration has given the green light to supply Kyiv with long-range missiles as the Ukrainian military conducts offensives in the Zaporizhzhia sector and the vicinity of Bakhmut, while holding back Russian attempts to break through the defenses in the Kupiansk and Avdiivka areas. A few days earlier, Putin had said that the Ukrainian counteroffensive had allegedly failed and that Russian troops were improving their position along the entire front line. Let's look at the shades of despair in Russian propaganda in response to Ukraine's use of ATACMS.
Russia's official reaction: A bad mine for a bad game
The Russian Ministry of Defense has not officially commented on the attack on its positions with ATACMS missiles. This is a typical tactic of ignoring a topic - after an event unfavorable to propagandists occurs, official sources silence it or selectively highlight certain aspects. In this way, they hope to downplay or minimize the negative aspects of the situation. However, it would be foolish to completely ignore a topic that is being reported on by numerous media outlets. Therefore, Putin, who was in Beijing at the time for the third Belt and Road Forum, had to react to the situation in some way. He resorted to all sorts of sophisms, saying that if Moscow is losing this war, why is the West supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles and expensive weapons, and since such supplies are there, it allegedly means that Russia is... winning! "Why then supply ATACMS? If it (the battle - "DM") is lost, let them take the weapons away," Putin said.
However, the main point of Putin's comments, as in the case of his comments on the supply of other types of weapons to Ukraine from the allies, was the assertion that such supplies are useless for the frontline. "Most importantly, it is fundamentally, completely unable to change the situation on the contact line. It is impossible. We can say that for sure," Putin said. Without recognizing the significant threat posed by the missiles themselves, Putin suddenly tautologously recognized the very fact of war through ATACMS. "This creates additional threats, but we will certainly be able to repel these attacks. War is war," Putin said, words for which people are imprisoned in Russia. At the same time, the Russian president turned to intimidation, claiming that the supplies would only "prolong the agony" of Ukraine and dangerously "draw the United States into the conflict."
Therefore, the Russian leader's reaction is an attempt to downplay the importance of American missiles in the war. The Russian dictator's interpretation was echoed by anonymous pro-Russian telegram channels. The propagandists' main hope is that the number of missiles supplied to the Ukrainian Armed Forces is insignificant: "Storm Shadow missiles were also sent, apparently, not many. And they were used to strike pointwise, not en masse. There was no question of daily use, and sometimes there were breaks of a week or more. Accordingly, they had a limited impact on the frontline... So, once again, the issue of the number of missiles delivered is key."
"Red lines are only on panties" - the reaction of anonymous telegram channels
Russian agitprop responded to Operation Dragonfly with a wider range of reactions, from more restrained reactions to outright fear and hatred. Some propagandists called it "one of the strongest blows to Russian troops in Ukraine." The telegram channel of one of the enemy bloggers said: "It's pointless to write about 'we need to draw conclusions so that this does not happen again. This will happen again as long as the war continues. We must be prepared for this."
Otherwise, we record complaints about the inaction of the Russian military leadership: "There was enough time to prepare. It was known that the f*ckers were handed over ATACMS with cassette tapes several months ago. Instead of preparing, what did they do? I'll keep silent about mowing the grass and journaling...". Another group "envisages" the resale of this type of missile on the black market, in particular to the Middle East, as it happened with other Western weapons - Ukraine allegedly "resold" RPGs to Hamas terrorists.
Others are worried about the Kremlin's lack of reaction to another violation of the "red lines." "we are afraid to supply SU-35 and S-400 to Iran because of Israel's opinion (and we should sign a contract for the maximum number of them), we also have no guts to start fighting normally (as Israel is doing now), and the red lines run through the panties of the children of one Tuvan and one gymnast."
A more "optimistic" version was that Russia had allegedly learned how to shoot down HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems and Storm Shadows precision cruise missiles, so it would be able to handle ATACMS.
Pro-Russian Crimean publics: fear and despair
According to CNN, which cites National Security Council spokeswoman, Adrienne Watson, Kyiv received a version of the missile with a range of 165 km, so only a number of potential targets in the form of airfields - already attacked near Berdiansk and Luhansk, and not yet hit near Dzhankoy - are in the Ukrainian army's strike zone. As well as other facilities on most of the occupied territory of Ukraine, except for most of Crimea, although Cape Tarkhankut falls within the area of operation.
Although Ukraine did not use ATACMS missiles against Russian military targets in Crimea as of October 19, pro-Russian Crimean telegram channels did not hide their pessimism and irritation about the future of the peninsula. In particular, it concerned the rebuilt Kerch Bridge: "the next target is obvious: our bridge", "eh, the [Kerch] bridge has just been repaired". As a reminder, on July 17, 2023, explosions occurred on the bridge connecting Russia to the occupied peninsula, destroying one section of the bridge and damaging another. It took several months to rebuild, and last week the occupation authorities announced that the repair work was completed 18 days earlier than planned. Ukraine's defense forces consider the Kerch bridge a legitimate military target as Russia moves its troops and equipment to the southern front in a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
"So what? Now we're going to 'express concern' again? Why is the Kremlin silent? We're the ones who are going to get missiles!" panicked the users of one of the Sevastopol telegram channels. A number of pro-Russian users of local publics also wrote about the deteriorating situation of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, whose headquarters was attacked by British Storm Shadow missiles in late September 2023. Military observers argue that once Kyiv receives ATACMS, the Russian military will not feel safe anywhere in Crimea, and it will become increasingly difficult for Russia to hold Crimea.
More "optimistic" versions sounded like Kyiv has "only 20 ATACMS, 8 of which have already landed in Berdiansk and Luhansk," so the danger is not that great. Some anonymous telegram channels also wrote that the West allegedly "allows" Ukraine to attack Berdiansk and Luhansk, but that it is "forbidden" to attack Crimea. This type of message is much less common than messages that indicate concern and fear.
"Ukrainians fired ATACMS missiles to spoil Putin's visit to China"
One of the common tactics of manipulators is to shift the focus from sensitive events to more favorable ones to justify agitprop. On October 17, 2023, Russian propagandists were very proud of Putin's visit to China, which was supposed to show the formation of a powerful anti-Western alliance. Therefore, the thesis was promoted that the successful use of ATACMS was only an attempt by the West to spoil the general background of Putin's meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
"Democrats don't need Putin's extra confidence, especially against the backdrop of the West's problems over the Middle East. The missiles have been on the territory of Ukraine for a long time, waiting for a favorable moment. And now they have. The morning before Putin's visit for very important talks. Or do you think it was a coincidence?" speculated one of the pro-Russian anonymous telegram channels.
ATACMS: the political component
In military terms, the number of ATACMS will indeed be crucial for the development of events on the battlefield, as Kyrylo Budanov, the Chief of the Defense Intelligence Agency, also said. At the same time, even a small number of missiles can inflict damage on the enemy, and thus save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers. However, the political component is important in the transfer and use of ATACMS missiles. ATACMS missiles, along with F-16 fighters, have been at the top of Ukraine's technological request to its allies since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Until recently, the West, balancing between supporting Ukraine and avoiding escalation, denied Ukraine its most powerful non-strategic weapons. Now the Ukrainian Armed Forces have all the key weapons they need, and the emphasis in requests to the allies will shift to quantity, promptness of delivery, and efficiency of service. Washington's decision to deliver the long-awaited missiles indicates a greater willingness to take risks and at the same time trust Kyiv in sensitive military and political aspects.
In addition, the transfer of ATACMS to Ukraine could have a catalytic effect on Germany's transfer of Taurus missile systems, which can potentially reach targets 480 kilometers away. They could compensate for similar British and French missiles used during the counteroffensive. Earlier, a spokesman for the ruling Social Democratic Party faction in the Bundestag, Nils Schmid, said that Germany would not send Taurus until the United States supplied Kyiv with its own missiles. The Russian side has repeatedly stated that the supply of weapons (from anti-tank weapons and artillery shells to tanks and cruise missiles) is unacceptable and means a violation of the "red lines." However, every time another "red line" is crossed, and Russia does not back up its threats with concrete actions, trust in Russia is further eroded.
