"Third World War is coming." Overview of the Russian media space in June 2023. Part 1

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June 2023, like the entire war with Ukraine, in the eyes of Russians, was split into two parts — before and after the "Wagnerians" mutiny. It is not the first sign that the special military operation (SMO) is not going according to plan. Still, for the first time, the Kremlin lacked plausible arguments to distort reality and explain that nothing special is happening. Therefore, we will split the June review of the Russian media space into two parts in the same way as for May. Firstly, we will discuss the information support of aggression against Ukraine. Secondly, we will focus on Prigozhin's mutiny.

Read reviews for May here and here.

Covering up a war crime — blowing up the Kakhovka HPP dam

Concise and stingy reports from official sources, the creation of numerous plausible versions regarding "authoritative" but anonymous sources, shifting the event into a fictitious chain of causes and effects, and blocking information from other sources — all these remain the main features of the propaganda support of Russia's war crimes since 2014.

However, in the most critical cases, Russians try to shape and frame the perception of their future crimes in advance. In this case, it is about imposing your version of events on outside observers or forcing them to doubt that the Russians are involved.

In this case, the Russian leadership prepared to blow up the Kakhovka HPP dam. Renat Karchaa, a representative of the occupation administration at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, informed us about this event's development and the "critical level of water filling" of the Kakhovskyi Reservoir. Volodymyr Rogov, a collaborator, also spoke about the threat of a dam breach and "shelling from Ukraine."

Moscow, May 5, 2023, RIA Novosti. "A possible blowing up of the dam of the Kakhovskyi Reservoir will threaten fires at the Zaporozhye NPP, said the adviser to the CEO of Rosenergoatom, Renat Karchaa, on the air of "Russia 24"...

"As Vladimir Rogov, a member of the main council of Zaporozhye region’s administration, reported to RIA Novosti the day before, the water level in the Kakhovskyi Reservoir has risen to a critical level. There are several reasons: flooding and uncontrolled discharge of water from hydroelectric power stations in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporozhye, which are located higher up the Dnieper under the control of Kiev, as well as shelling of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station from Ukraine."

"An increase in the water level can lead to a breach of the dam in the area of Kamenka-Dneprovskaya and the flooding of nearby settlements, as well as the Zaporozhye NPP, Rogov said. "

However, the Russian propaganda machine, which relies on various actors in various bureaucratic structures, is not ideal. Sometimes setbacks occur due to the performers’ vanity or impatience. Let's recall how on July 17, 2014, Ihor Girkin decided to show off that his subordinates shot down a "Ukrainian military plane" between Torez and Snizhny. It turned out that what they shot down was a passenger liner.

Something similar happened on June 5-6.

Initially, late in the evening of June 5, RT in Russian, referencing sources in the Russian army, reported on the alleged detection of Ukrainian landing forces in the Kakhovskyi district. Even if this message was a complete fabrication, it cements the message that active hostilities have begun near the dam. Potentially, this could be the beginning of framing future events as "consequences" of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

It is worth noting that on this day, the Kremlin officially commented on the start of Ukraine's counteroffensive actions for the first time: Peskov advised to contact the Ministry of Defense of Russia with questions about it. In less than a day, the Kremlin spokesman will break his own word and begin to actively comment on the events in the Kherson region and the "counteroffensive", which we will discuss further.

However, on the night of June 6, one of the first reports about the incident at the Kakhovka Dam appeared. It was revealing and important for several reasons.

First, an anonymous TASS source "in the power structures" says that "there was no shelling." Secondly, he insists that "everything was quiet", i.e., no action was taken by the Ukrainian army (despite RT in Russian information). Thirdly, the thesis that "the dam could not withstand the onslaught of water and collapsed" began to be promoted in May.

In the end, TASS hedged and ended the news with a statement that there was no official version of events, so everything would remain "undefined."

Moscow, June 5, 2023, TASS: "Peskov did not answer questions regarding the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. "This is connected with the course of the special military operation, so the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation should comment on the situation."

June 5, 2023, RT in Russian: "The Russian Armed Forces shot down the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Su-25, which was covering a request for a river landing on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kakhov district of the Kherson region. "Russian anti-aircraft gunners shot down a Su-25 in the Kherson region, which was covering the request for a river landing of Ukrainian troops on the left bank of the Dnieper," — reported the RT source. The landing attempt of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was thwarted."

Henichesk, June 6, 2023, TASS: "The Kakhovska HPP dam in the Kherson region collapsed due to the damaged and flooded territory." It was reported to TASS by a source in the power structures. "It was quiet at night. There were no shells. The dam did not hold up, one support collapsed, and flooding began," he said. TASS does not yet have official confirmation of information from the authorities and law enforcement agencies.

Meanwhile, RT in Russian picks up the event at the dam to develop the "failed counteroffensive" theme. The key message: Ukrainian troops are fleeing the islands due to flooding and shelling by the Russian army.

In fact, RT in Russian wrote that Russian troops are shelling the flooding zone! Later, this detail completely disappears. On the contrary, the Russians stubbornly spread misinformation that the flooding zone is being shelled exclusively by Ukrainian troops.

June 6, 2023, RT in Russian: "Ukrainian soldiers flee from their firing positions on the islands in the Kherson region due to flooding; at the same time, they are being attacked by the Russian Armed Forces, Vladimir Rogov, the head of the "We Are Together with Russia" (Мы вместе с Россией) movement, told RT. "There is a fire standoff, there is shelling from their side, plus, as a matter of urgency, Ukrainian soldiers are fleeing from the islands, from Bolshoi Potemkinsky and others, where they have set up fire positions, because, firstly, the islands fall into the zone of flooding, and secondly, now our army covers them," he said.

It seems that using the detonation of the dam as "evidence" in favor of the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive was liked by the Kremlin, and this version was already picked up at the official level. Unfortunately, the Russian media used the thesis of the ex-Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Andriy Zahorodniuk, to emphasize the credibility of the Kremlin's events version. In this case, a simple manipulation took place. If Peskov claimed that the Ukrainians blew up the dam because things were not going well with the offensive, then Zahorodniuk meant that blowing up the dam made conducting hostilities in that area almost impossible. If you carefully compare these quotes, the manipulation becomes obvious. However, for most readers outside of Ukraine, especially in Russia, all this looks like an amplification of the Kremlin's words from an influential Ukrainian expert.

June 6, 2023, RT in Russian: "Apparently, this sabotage is connected with the fact that, having started large-scale offensive actions two days ago, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not achieving their goals. "These offensive actions are getting bogged down," said the Kremlin representative.

New York, June 6, 2023, TASS: "The destruction of the dam at the Kakhovka HPP dam left the Armed Forces of Ukraine with no chance for a successful water offensive. It was reported by Newsweek magazine on Tuesday referencing the advisor of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, former head of the department Andriy Zahorodniuk. "This [destruction] made it virtually impossible to cross the river in this section. Even conducting operations in the entire area will be significantly complicated," the publication quoted him. Zahorodniuk claims that the offensive of Ukrainian troops across the Dnieper is now tangled. Newsweek clarifies that the Kherson region was one of the areas where the so-called counteroffensive of the Armed Forces could begin."

In the following days, Russian propaganda started working harmoniously and without punctures. The main goal was to deny involvement and use Ukraine's arguments against itself.

In particular, the following fake news is being circulated:

Meanwhile, inside Russia, Russian propagandists began reducing the consequences of the dam explosion and the artificial flood. They say that everything will be restored quickly, that no spread of dangerous diseases has been recorded, thousands of people have been rescued and evacuated from flooded settlements.

Henichesk, June 14, 2023, TASS: "The territories of the Kherson region, flooded after the destruction by Ukrainian troops of the Kakhovka HPP, will be restored as soon as possible. Acting region governor Vladimir Saldo announced this in the Telegram channel on Wednesday. The Kakhovka HPP dam, damaged by an attack by Ukrainian troops, is subject to restoration, said the acting head of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo. Saldo added that sanitary and environmental safety will be ensured in the emergency zone.

Moscow, June 10, 2023, TASS: "More than 3 thousand residents were evacuated from the districts on the right bank of the Dnieper affected by the blow-up of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam. It was stated by the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, in an address to the citizens published on the head of state’s website. Earlier, acting governor of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, reported that on the morning of June 10, more than 6,000 people were evacuated from the flooded areas on the left bank. He emphasized that constant shelling from the Armed Forces of Ukraine interferes with this work.

Moscow, June 13, 2023, TASS: "Rospotrebnadzor (Роспотребнадзор) did not detect any cases of infectious diseases in the Kherson region after the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP, and the immunization of population continues." It was reported to journalists in the department's press service on Tuesday."

Moscow, June 14, 2023, TASS: "Rescuers of the Ministry of Emergencies of the Russian Federation helped more than 2.2 thousand people, of them almost 200 children, get out of the emergency zone in the Kherson region after the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP".

Moscow, June 15, 2023, TASS: "Rescuers evacuated more than 7,500 people from the regions affected due to the blow up at the Kakhovka HPP in the Kherson region".

In other words, the central media and news agencies actively spread dark stories to prevent and neutralize alternative sources of information about the dam explosion. At the same time, the information about the death of Russian soldiers due to the flood was generally hushed up.

How the Kremlin used Western media to falsify news about Ukraine's counteroffensive actions

However, the main focus of Russian propaganda was information support and framing of offensive operations of Ukrainian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region. The information component was rigidly consistent because the Russians were preparing for such a turn of events. Since June 6, all key speakers held a single thesis — Ukraine's counteroffensive was utterly defeated. On June 9 and 13, 2023, Putin himself repeated this thesis in various ways, particularly during a meeting with the so-called warlords.

However, in its efforts to formulate the impression of Ukraine’s quick defeat, the Kremlin unexpectedly found allies in the West. Since June 7, Russian media have been actively quoting influential Western publications that openly express skepticism about Ukraine's successes on the battlefield.

It must be said that there has not been such a comprehensive citation of Western media since the spring of 2022, when most experts and media in the West doubted Ukraine's ability to survive.

Moscow, June 6, 2023, TASS: "The Kiev regime cannot achieve the goal of its counteroffensive; the Armed Forces are suffering huge losses. State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin announced this on Tuesday in his Telegram channel. "It is the second day of the Kyiv regime’s counteroffensive," he wrote. He stated that "the Barbarossa-2 plan has failed."

New York, June 7, 2023, TASS: "The USA and Europe will begin to consider peaceful initiatives to settle the Ukrainian conflict if the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Ukrainian Armed Forces) is unsuccessful. It was reported by Newsweek magazine on Tuesday."

Moscow, June 8, 2023, TASS: "The Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to attack in the Zaporozhye direction with forces of up to 1,500 soldiers and 150 units of armored vehicles, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation said. According to him, Russian scouts detected the enemy in time, after which a pre-emptive strike was launched by artillery, aviation, and anti-tank means. "The enemy was stopped in all four directions and retreated with heavy losses," Shoigu emphasized. He noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost 30 tanks, 11 infantry fighting vehicles, and up to 350 soldiers during the two-hour battle. Thus, the enemy's specially prepared reserve forces for the breakthrough did not fulfill their task. Also, according to Shoigu, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost 945 personnel, 33 tanks, 28 infantry fighting vehicles, 38 armored fighting vehicles, 3 Krab self-propelled artillery installations, and other weapons during hostilities on June 7, 2023."

Moscow, June 9, 2023, TASS: "Ukrainian offensive has begun"; it is "absolutely possible to state it" due to the "use of strategic reserves of the Ukrainian army", the President of the Russian Federation said. "The Ukrainian army did not achieve the tasks set before them in any combat areas," he emphasized. The failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive was achieved thanks to the "courage and heroism" of Russian soldiers, "the correct organization and management of troops, and the high efficiency of Russian weapons, especially modern ones."

June 10, 2023, Tsargrad TV: "Ukraine" project is nearly ending. On the one hand, Kyiv flies past its plans to join NATO; on the other, there are indications that the West wants to stop supporting the Zelensky regime against Russia. According to Die Welt, a German newspaper blocked in Russia, most of the West has already accepted the defeat of Ukraine on the battlefield. The last few days of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ active counteroffensive probably only convinced the USA and the EU of the futility of supporting Kyiv. Ukrainian troops did not achieve any success and lost a lot of people and equipment. The special correspondent of the publication in Brussels reports that Zelensky's government believes that his country's support will last as long as possible. But this, as it is customary to say in such situations, is an ego problem. The USA, UK, France, and Germany are close to deciding to negotiate with Russia. It is not yet clear in what format this event can be held. Obviously, the NATO summit in Vilnius, which is only a month away, can become a watershed. But several other sources only confirm that the West is giving up on Ukraine. In particular, Bloomberg, a Western business publication, notes that the West is not only not ready to provide Kyiv with a road map for joining NATO but is also withdrawing "security guarantees" for Ukraine.

New York, June 13, 2023, TASS: "The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost 15% of all Bradley armored vehicles supplied by the United States. The CNN channel reported this on Monday, referencing the data from the Dutch portal Oryx.

New York, June 13, 2023, TASS: "Elon Musk called the small number of Leopard-2 tanks available in Ukraine vulnerable to anti-tank missile systems and mines. "Anti-tank weapons and mines easily destroy a small number of tanks. It is better to have them in large quantities or not in general," Elon Musk emphasized in a comment to this publication."

New York, June 13, 2023, TASS: "Ukrainian troops suffer heavy losses when they try to conduct a counteroffensive. It was reported by The New York Times on Tuesday referencing analysts."

Moscow, June 13, 2023, TASS: "The Ukrainian Armed Forces did not succeed in any of the areas of the counteroffensive; moreover, they suffered heavy losses, according to Putin. He reported that the Armed Forces lost more than 160 tanks during the counteroffensive. According to the president, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost, according to estimates, 25-30% of the equipment supplied from abroad. The losses of Ukraine’s Armed Forces are now unfavorable; they are approaching catastrophic amounts, added the head of state." "The large-scale counteroffensive of Kyiv, which began on June 4, 2023, continues, but without success: "The enemy did not succeed in any of the areas. They suffered heavy losses." The Armed Forces lose ten times more than the Russian forces, and "the structure of losses is unfavorable": "Usually irrecoverable losses are 25 percent, maximum 30. They are at almost 50 to 50." Kiev has already lost more than 160 tanks and more than 360 armored vehicles of different types, "this is approximately 25%, maybe 30% of the volume of equipment that was supplied [to Ukraine] from abroad." Russia lost 54 tanks, but some are subject to recovery and repair."

St. Petersburg, June 14, 2023, TASS: "The Ukrainian military has not advanced a single meter since the beginning of the counteroffensive in the Zaporozhye direction. It was stated in an interview with TASS during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (PMEF) by the Acting Governor of the Zaporozhye Region, Yevgeny Balytskyi.

Vienna, June 14, 2023, TASS: "The USA and its European Union and NATO allies will have to explain to their own taxpayers the high losses of modern Western equipment suffered by the Ukrainian army during the demand for a counteroffensive. Konstantin Gavrilov, the head of the Russian delegation at the negotiations in Vienna on military security and arms control, stated this on Wednesday.

Minsk, June 14, 2023, TASS: "The failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive showed that Russia is fighting "according to all the rules." The President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, expressed such an opinion on Wednesday."

Washington, June 14, 2023, TASS: "The unsuccessful counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may harm Kiev's relations with Western countries." The Washington Post newspaper reported this on Wednesday.

London, June 14, 2023, TASS: "Representatives of Western countries admit that the Armed Forces offensive is complicated." As the BBC broadcasting corporation reported on Wednesday, the relevant statement was made during a briefing held for journalists on condition of anonymity by high-ranking Western officials.

Paris, June 15, 2023, TASS: "The Ukrainian counteroffensive failed; the weapons supplied to Kyiv by the North Atlantic Alliance did not change the situation. On Wednesday, such an opinion was expressed on the air of the BFM TV channel by the vice-speaker of the State Duma, Pyotr Tolstoy.

New York, June 15, 2023, TASS: "The bipartisan consensus of the American Congress on supporting Ukraine begins to weaken amid the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive." It was reported by The New York Times on Wednesday.

Brussels, June 15, 2023, TASS: "US officials warned their Ukrainian colleagues that Kiev needs to achieve major successes on the battlefield shortly so that Washington continues to assist in the same volume." It was reported by the European edition of the Politico newspaper on Thursday, referencing sources. As follows from the materials of the Bloomberg agency, the West recognizes significant losses of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. At the same time, The Washington Post newspaper wrote that the unsuccessful counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces might harm Kiev's relations with Western countries.

It should be emphasized once again: from June 6 to 15, out of 17 leading news messages about the defeat of Ukraine during the counteroffensive, nine belonged to Western sources. Moreover, with the only exception (a statement with reference to the Dutch organization Oryx in the Western media), these were references to anonymous sources.

Therefore, objectively it looks like the leading Western, and American media actively formed a negative perception of Ukrainian efforts to liberate the territories, and the Russians took full advantage of this. Whether they wanted it or not, the leading publications of the United States caused enormous damage — they contributed to the perception of reports from Russian official and unofficial sources as believable and worthy of attention. All this happened after the explosion of the Kakhovka HPP dam when Russia purposefully spread disinformation.

Now, using two examples of Russian propaganda in June, we will show the probable consequences of such editorial negligence of the Western media.

First, in June, the Russians actively spread the topic of the removal or wounding of the head of the HUR MO (Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine), Kyrylo Budanov.

June 15, 2023, Moscow Komsomolets (Московский комсомолец): "On Thursday, June 15, RIA Novosti, citing its source, reported on the serious wounding of the head of the HUR Kyrylo Budanov, which he received on May 29, during a Russian missile strike... news agency state that immediately after the wound Budanov was evacuated by helicopter to the Polish base in Rzeszów, and from there by a special plane of the USAF to the Ramstein base in Germany. There he was in a military hospital with a severe medical condition. If so, Budanov is already the second key figure of the Ukrainian power block, which the Russian troops managed to disable. Before this, Valeriy Zaluzhny, head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, remained unable to work."

The goal of such disinformation is obvious — to sow even more significant doubts among Ukrainians about the success of counteroffensive actions and to further convince the Russian audience of this.

Secondly, in June, the Russians intensified disinformation to suggest the threat of Ukraine using the so-called dirty bomb — a powerful explosive device designed to spread dangerous radioactive dust over large areas.

The FSB of Russia is the main faker in this topic. However, against the synergy of Western and Russian media reports, the spread of such "news" can also be included in the "trustworthy" list.

In this regard, the negative media campaign that has unfolded in the American media against Ukraine’s HUR is alarming. It already legitimizes the Russians' fakes about preparing a terrorist attack with a "dirty bomb" by Ukrainian intelligence officers.

June 3, 2023, Channel One (Первый канал): "Ukraine's attempts to stage terrorist attacks on nuclear facilities may provoke a nuclear catastrophe in Europe." After all, Kyiv acts based on the orders of Western curators. It was stated by FSB director Alexander Bortnikov in Minsk at a meeting of the Council of Heads of Security Agencies and Special Services of the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) countries.

June 5, 2023, Moscow Komsomolets: "The CNN channel reported, citing its own sources, that Ukraine allegedly trained saboteurs and gave them drones to carry out terrorist attacks inside Russia. "US officials believe that Ukraine has created sabotage cells in Russia," the article notes. At the same time, American officials drew attention to the fact that these saboteurs were given Ukrainian-made drones, not drones provided by Washington to Kyiv. Two sources claim that Ukraine uses routes to deliver drones or their components to Russia, where they can be assembled. However, American officials could not say exactly how these drones are delivered to Russia."

June 6, 2023: "The Federal Security Service (FSB) of the Russian Federation showed a video with the confession of a detained Ukrainian intelligence pilot, in which he said that the possibility of transferring small portable nuclear charges to Russia to commit terrorist attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation was discussed in Kyiv. According to the FSB, Ukrainian military intelligence planned to commit a terrorist act in Russia using a "dirty bomb" with radioactive substances that would make the area unfit for human habitation. The department pointed out that the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, had created a unit with light aircraft for sabotage in the Russian Federation, which since the beginning of the year had carried out five combat sorties... Sources reported that the leadership of the Eastern GOK in the city of Zheltye Vody, Dnepropetrovsk region, and the Kyiv Institute for Nuclear Research were tasked with making a "dirty bomb," and these works were already at the stage of creation completion.

Moscow, June 6, 2023, RIA Novosti: "The Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Peskov, stated that the Kremlin does not have an assessment of the situation with the preparation by Ukrainian intelligence of a terrorist attack using a "dirty bomb" on the territory of Russia, which the FSB reported."

Finally, it is worth adding that after the mutiny of the Wagnerians, Putin felt very confident and even defiant. He almost verbatim predicted the position of Jake Sullivan, which he expressed on the eve of the NATO summit in Vilnius. Therefore, Western media and leading high-ranking US officials should work on their own rhetoric so as not to play along with the Kremlin.

June 13, 2023, RT in Russian: "Russian President Vladimir Putin said that there will be no winners in the event of the Third World War. He said this at a meeting with military officials, answering a question from RT correspondent Murad Gazdiev.

According to Putin, the American authorities pretend to be unafraid of the conflict escalation.

At the same time, the Russian president emphasized that many sane people in America do not want the Third World War.

Putin added that there would be no winners, including the United States, in such a conflict.

Putin also called the special military operation Russia's response to the crossing of red lines by the West."