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The second year of the full-scale invasion is ending — a year of testing our resilience and unity over the long haul. Detector Media sums up the media year 2023 with a traditional review of key events and trends in the media world. More of what was on the agenda at the end of 2022 can be found using this tag.
Read more analysis pieces about this year under the tag "#Results of the year of 2023". Previously, we discussed the results of 2023 and reviewed the trends of 2024 in the pay-TV market; we highlighted the main themes, messages, omissions, fakes, and manipulations created by the Kremlin from December 1, 2022, to December 1, 2023, provided an estimate of Ocean Media Plus groups and agencies of Ukraine’s television market according to their television budgets for the year, and reviewed how leading foreign media covered Ukraine not only in 2023 but for all 20 months of the full-scale war in Ukraine. Onward, DM has prepared an assessment of what the pro-Russian Telegram channels predicted for this year and what they predict for 2024.
In 2013, a scientist from Johns Hopkins University, Kyungmin (Christian) Kim, and his colleagues found that "knowing" about future issues from one’s horoscope in those who believe in predictions does not make them want to fight possible troubles but prepares them to give in to them. Meanwhile, those who do not believe in horoscopes can focus and avoid unplanned actions.
The media spread from a quarter to two-thirds of predictions that do not come true. This can be evidenced by several studies of New Year's forecasts, which were distributed by 100 leading Ukrainian online publications. The Content Analysis Center analyzed in December 2017, 2018 and 2019.
Detector Media research center analyzed 1,800 messages in 311 pro-Russian Telegram channels, which we wrote about in our "Kremlin Hydra" study at the beginning of January 2023. The research tells how propagandists use future predictions and whether many of them come true.
Pretending to be the owner of secret knowledge allows you to attract attention to yourself. Yet, it is abused by some pro-Russian Telegram channels. Their "insiders", "leaks", and "exclusives" are often just fictions, conspiracies, and fakes. If such "insiders" and "predictions" at least partially come true, it becomes a reason for the Telegram channel to write that it should be trusted. In addition, it will be possible to provide users with a lot of information. Part of this can also come true. It is how the "versions bombardment" propaganda tactic works: many versions of events are proposed, one of which may later be confirmed.
Telegram channels claim that they have access to exclusive information and predictions and use them as opportunities to increase the number of subscribers. An example of this is the propaganda Telegram channel "Klymenko Time," which provides the chance to read a selection of forecasts for 2024 in which it spreads disinformation in an extensive number of posts and uses it to advertise the channel in Telegram.
Repost from the Klymenko Time Telegram channel with an invitation to read forecasts for 2024 and join the publication's premium channel
For Telegram channel authors, making successful predictions likely means adding credibility to the experts and resources that shared these predictions. If the author of the prediction, unlike the authors of posts on the Telegram channel, does not support the Russian government, then one can distance themselves from him/her, but one cannot ignore the prophetic gift.
"You can love or hate Nevzorov, but his political predictions are carried out with amazing accuracy...", stated a Telegram channel that distributes publications on international politics in mid-November.
War criminal Igor Girkin, who is in custody in Russia on suspicion of extremism, is simultaneously called a successful forecaster on the Internet because "all his predictions about Ukraine and military operations came true" and, on the other hand, because of criticism of the Russian authorities ridiculed with phrases such as "drunk Strelkov addressed Putin".
Forecasts can also distort expectations about the future and focus attention on random dates in the near future. Here is an example of such a post from Telegram: "German military expert Markus Koip announced the exact date of Ukraine's victory — March 21, 2024."
If the "prediction with a deadline" announced by the expert does not come true, pro-Russian Telegram channels can use this as proof of the author's unreliability. This happened in November 2022 to Russian journalist Mykhailo Zygar. He said that after the retreat from Kherson, Vladimir Putin had no support and had six months left in power. For such predictions, pro-Russian Telegram channels called Zygar "the ambassador of the Russian elite’s gay community." Belonging to the LGBTQIA community in Russia and among pro-Russian social network users often serves as a measure of a person's uncharitable nature.
How many predictions for 2023 from pro-Russian Telegram channels have come true
In 2022 and 2023, the central forecast categories were about the economy and military activities. There were more predictions about the economy in 2022 than about the war. Most of the projections on economic topics are related to the growth of the gross domestic product or individual sectors of Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and the world’s industries. The authors' primary sources were international organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank; niche publications, such as APK-Inform in forecasts of the development of the agricultural sector of Ukraine; authorities of other states, their representatives, or niche experts.
Pro-Russian Telegram channels wrote about the forecast subjects at the end of 2022 and 2023. Source — Detector Media according to "TeleZip / Mantis Analytics"
Most of the economic forecasts for 2023 that refer to fluctuations in GDP or manufacturing cannot be verified, as the forecasts refer to the entire year 2023, which has yet to end. International and statistical institutions publish estimates of economic indicators for the past year during the first half of the following year. From all the economic predictions that can be claimed to come true in 2023, only one is actually true. It refers to Russia's income from oil exports will decrease. It was confirmed at the beginning of November by the Kyiv School of Economics. Russia's oil revenues are expected to drop to $177 billion in 2023 from $218 billion in 2022.
However, the successes of sanctions against Russia are partial. As Economichna Pravda (Economic Truth, Економічна правда) reported, Russia's income from the sale of oil and oil products will fall due to a decrease in the price of oil on the world market. Russians circumvented oil price restrictions by changing markets. Instead of EU members, who were the primary buyers of Russian oil but joined the sanctions against Russia, the main buyers are now the Asian states that did not join the sanctions. Subsequently, according to an investigation by The Washington Post, Russian oil and oil products are also bought by those who imposed sanctions against Russia. But the intermediaries — representatives of the states that did not join the sanctions against Russia — have already received profits.
The integrity of forecast messages that pro-Russian Telegram channels posted about at the end of 2022. Source — Detector Media according to "TeleZip / Mantis Analytics"
There is another economic forecast that partially came true in 2023. Its veracity can be asserted depending on the assessment’s approach. In December 2022, Telegram channels predicted that the share of people with low incomes in Ukraine would reach 55% within a year. They named the World Bank as the source of the forecast. Yet, this international institution emphasizes different approaches to defining poverty. There are internationally recognized indicators of poverty, according to which those who live on less than 1.9, 2.15, 3.65, 5.5, and 6.85 USD per day are considered poor. National poverty indicators can also measure poverty in society. In Ukraine, such a criterion is the living wage. According to Olena Makarova, director of the Institute of Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, about 17% of people in Ukraine live on less than the living minimum. The last public assessment of poverty in Ukraine by the World Bank was published in May 2023. It referred to 2022:
"Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) has declined by 29.2 percent in 2022, and the poverty rate has increased from 5.5 percent to 24.1 percent in 2022 (based on a poverty line of US$6.85 per person per day)", — as stated on the 9th page of the report.
On the other hand, as the head of the department of the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after Ptukh, Lyudmyla Cherenko, reported in October 2023 on the air of Ukrainian Radio, according to demographers' models, 20 million people can be considered poor in Ukraine.
"According to the simulated data, poverty was 60% in 2022 and 67% in 2023. These numbers are based on the data included in the draft budget’s explanatory note for this year," assessed Lyudmyla Cherenko.
Russian propagandists regularly intimidate Ukrainians with poverty and often compare Ukraine with Russia. For example, as Detector Media’s analysts have shown in the study of narratives about older people in social networks, the life of pensioners in Russia is presented as carefree and prosperous. In contrast, in Ukraine, their life is dark and beggarly.
The authors of posts in pro-Russian Telegram channels tend to exaggerate the future problems of Russia's opponents and the successes of the aggressor state. Among the economic forecasts that did not come true was the threat that "the European Union has become a silent victim of the US escalation of the conflict in Ukraine." They stated that if the sanctions against Russia continue, protests will begin in Europe due to the lack of economic growth or due to problems that arose due to the lack of access to goods previously supplied by Russia.
In contrast, propaganda Telegram channels predicted that the Russian economy and state budget would be invulnerable to sanctions in 2023. This prediction also did not come true. Sanctions against Russia work with varying degrees of success. Russia's budget deficit already reached the indicators set in the state budget in May 2023. Deductions from the National Welfare Fund covered Russia's inviolable reserve, accumulated from profits from the sale of oil and gas since 2008.
"Combat what-ifs science". Last year's forecasts about military actions and the future of Russia
In terms of the predictions about military actions for 2023, only two came true. The first related to the fact that the shelling of Ukraine by the Russians will continue. Another forecast stated that by the spring of 2023, 100,000 Russian soldiers would be killed or wounded. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as of March 1, 2023, the loss of personnel of the Russian army amounted to 149,890 people.
Most of the forecasts on the military topics were related to the fact that hostilities in Ukraine will end in 2023. As a rule, Telegram channels predicted victory for Russia. Pro-Russian Telegram channels also quoted Ukrainian officials and supporters of Ukraine, who spoke of the end of the war with the victory of Ukraine, to make fun of them. The Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danylov, was accused of coordinating reports about the return of Crimea in 2023 alongside the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov. At that time, the adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovych, was ridiculed for his words about the end of the war in the middle of the summer of 2023 because of his earlier predictions regarding the end of hostilities, which did not come true. Russian political commentator Mikhail Zygar was also ridiculed for predicting that after the retreat of the Russians from Kherson, Putin's rule in Russia may end.
Telegram channels’ forecasts are not about the future but about the views and goals of their authors
The forecasts for 2024 in pro-Russian Telegram channels are similar to those for 2023. They continue to predict the victory of Russia. The main arguments in favor of this statement are the traditional Russian propaganda’s claims: Russia's invulnerability to sanctions, the stability of the political regime in Russia, and issues with providing aid to Ukraine:
"Given the fact that Ukraine depends on Western aid even in its social system, and Russia lives and fights exclusively on its own while increasing the turnover of the military industry, it is not difficult to calculate where, on what scale, and at what speed the vector will deviate," stated a Telegram channel in November 2023, covering the hostilities in Ukraine from the Russian point of view.
Forecasts also predict the defeat of Russia. Its prominent prophet from the Russian side is the war criminal Igor Girkin. In his videos before his arrest, Girkin accused the Russian authorities and propagandists of not believing in Russia enough and not trying hard enough for Russia to defeat the "Nazis from Ukraine."
In terms of the economy, Telegram channels continue to threaten the deterioration of the economic situation in the European Union and the United States. Regarding the fate of Russia, forecasts referenced the experts from abroad about the reduction of its economy by 2023. They are also spreading threats that Ukrainian refugees in Britain will be evicted.
In contrast to forecasts for 2023, the authors of publications in pro-Russian Telegram channels predict the president of the United States, Joe Biden, and the president of China, Xi Jinping, departures from power in 2024, as well as the fact that representatives from the Labor Party, which after 2010, will come to power in the United Kingdom never headed the UK’s government. When mentioning Ukraine’s politics, pro-Russian Telegram channels announced that Ukraine's presidential elections will be held in 2024 and that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be replaced by his wife, Olena Zelenska. The statements about the elections are attributed to Oleksiy Arestovich. The authors of Telegram channels referenced the image in The Economist to support the arguments about the replacement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy by Olena Zelenska and the departure from power of Joe Biden and Xi Jinping.
In cases when the authors of the posts in anonymous Telegram channels do not take their predictions from the forecasts of The Economist, they call this publication "a Rothschilds’ child", "reptile fortune-telling", and call on their Telegram readers "to be prudent and not succumb to psychological programming of consciousness." However, it is also a good guide for this messenger’s users, which most Ukrainians use and in which unknown people host the most popular channels.
