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In the early days of 2025, Russian propaganda Telegram channels speculated that with Donald Trump coming to power, the United States would cease its support for Ukraine. They lauded Trump for his ideas of “annexing” territories from other countries, portraying this as a justification for Russia’s occupation of Crimea.
On January 7, the newly elected President of the United States, Donald Trump, held a press conference where, according to the Associated Press, he stated he would not rule out the use of force to gain control over Greenland and the Panama Canal. Trump also reiterated his previous remarks that Canada should become the 51st state of the United States. Regarding Ukraine, Trump accused current U.S. President Joseph Biden of “provoking” Russian President Vladimir Putin:
“A big part of the problem is, Russia - for many, many years, long before Putin - said, ‘You could never have NATO involved with Ukraine.’ Now, they’ve said that. That’s been, like, written in stone,” Trump said. “And somewhere along the line Biden said, ‘No. They should be able to join NATO.’ Well, then Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I could understand their feelings about that,” The Guardian quotes Donald Trump.
On the day of Trump’s press conference, 84 pro-Russian Telegram channels targeting Ukrainian audiences generated 270 posts mentioning the future 47th U.S. president. These posts focused on discussing Trump’s ideas, his entourage, and other news from the United States. During Russia’s holiday period from December 31 to January 7, when Russians enjoy state holidays, the analyzed Telegram channels showed only one day — the first of the new year — when fewer than 50 posts mentioning Trump were created. On other days, the number of posts ranged from 62 to 270.
Topics of publications about Donald Trump in propaganda Telegram channels aimed at Ukrainians from January 31, 2024, to 12:00 p.m. on January 8, 2025
Throughout the analyzed period, pro-Russian Telegram channels repeatedly circulated a relatively consistent set of narratives about Ukraine. These narratives aimed to instill doubt among Ukrainians about continued U.S. support for Ukraine under President Trump. They intertwined these themes with current news events, such as the car-ramming incident that killed 15 people in New Orleans, the explosion involving a Tesla Cybertruck near Trump’s hotel in Las Vegas on January 1, and statements about plans to annex foreign territories to the U.S.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels on the Car Attack in New Orleans and the Las Vegas Explosion
On January 1, accusations surfaced in these channels linking Ukraine to both the car attack in New Orleans and the Tesla Cybertruck explosion in Las Vegas. For example, a Telegram channel with nearly 160,000 subscribers spread false claims that the man killed in the Tesla Cybertruck explosion allegedly had a photo of himself wearing a t-shirt with the slogan “Glory to Ukraine.”
“U.S. Special Operations soldier Matthew Livelsberger (who was in the vehicle at the time of the explosion) was on a mission in Ukraine in 2016. Moreover, he served in Germany in a unit that trained Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel... Livelsberger supported his right nationalist-minded colleagues in the AFU,” a Telegram channel with 172,000 subscribers claimed on January 3.
Similar claims linking those accused of the January 1 U.S. attacks to Ukraine appeared 26 more times in the analyzed dataset, accounting for over a quarter of all posts about the January 1 attacks in the U.S.
“Both ‘Green Beret’ Matthew Livelsberger, who reportedly shot himself inside the exploded Cybertruck, and veteran Shamsud-Din Jabbar served at Fort Bragg, now renamed Fort Liberty. The Kyiv link, often overplayed, is suggested by a photograph of Livelsberger wearing a T-shirt with the Nazi slogan ‘Glory to Ukraine,’” a January 3 post in a Telegram channel with 160,000 subscribers stated.
The same military base was allegedly visited by Ryan Wesley Routh, accused of attempting to assassinate Donald Trump in September 2024. However, there is no evidence linking Routh to Ukraine’s Defense Forces, even though he reportedly visited Ukraine. Thousands of other people who are not involved in terrorist attacks in the United States serve at military bases in the United States at any given time.
“The Global Redistribution Begins With Ukraine”
Donald Trump’s comments about incorporating territories of other countries into the United States sparked the most discussion on January 7 and 8, following the president-elect’s press conference. Among the 164 posts on this topic, 74 mentioned the “annexation” of Greenland by the U.S., 44 referred to the potential annexation of Canada, 26 highlighted Trump’s statement about gaining control over the Panama Canal, and 15 referenced his idea of renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America.”
Trump’s remarks also caught the attention of Ukrainian bloggers supporting Russia. Their main argument was that Trump’s proposals were no different from the “reunification” of Ukraine’s Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions with Russia.
“Donald Alfredovich promises to soon admire the beauty of what is currently Denmark’s Greenland, and Elon Musk even declared that Greenlanders themselves ‘want to become part of America.’ The Prime Minister of Greenland, in his New Year’s address to the island’s 56,000 residents, suggested they collectively and individually leave the Kingdom of Denmark. Isn’t it the experience of Crimea, the LPR, and the DPR that has inspired them all?” wrote Tetiana Montian on January 7 in a Telegram channel with 507,000 subscribers. Montian is suspected of advocating violent changes to Ukraine’s constitutional order and collaborationism.
Anonymous pro-Russian Telegram channels not known to be affiliated with prominent pro-Russian bloggers either endorsed or sought to justify Trump’s statements about incorporating territories into the U.S. For instance, a pro-Russian Telegram channel with 249,000 subscribers, which references the Ukrainian city of Odesa in its name, expressed unequivocal approval of Greenland joining the United States:
“The ‘global reshuffle’ begins with U̶k̶r̶a̶i̶n̶e̶ Greenland. Donald Trump stated that the deal for Greenland to join the United States, which Denmark strongly opposes, must happen... A redrawing of the world’s borders is inevitable!”
Meanwhile, a Telegram channel with 206,000 subscribers “explained” that pro-Russian supporters should welcome Trump’s idea of annexing Greenland for the sake of U.S. “economic security” and “leverage the situation to their advantage”:
“Trump is single-handedly dismantling the old system of relations, which will bring more chaos. The seizure of part of Syria by Israel and Greenland by the U.S. places them on par with the separation of Crimea and Novorossiya from Ukraine, thereby legitimizing these actions. Moreover, such a move by Trump will strike a hefty blow at NATO and the EU, as it will turn out that the primary ally and protector of Europe will itself carve out a piece of their domains.”
“Trump and Ukraine”
Key topics of messages with mentions of Donald Trump during December 31, 2024 – 12:00 p.m. on January 8, 2025
In the messages cited above, Ukraine was mentioned indirectly, often as an example or argument supporting propagandist narratives or as a backdrop for discussing other topics. However, Ukraine was the primary focus in 453 posts, accounting for over 49% of the analyzed publications. These posts predominantly speculated on Donald Trump’s views regarding the end of hostilities in Ukraine.
Forty-four posts addressed the cancellation of a visit to Ukraine by Donald Trump’s special representative on Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg. According to Reuters, Kellogg’s visit to Ukraine was initially planned for early January 2025, during a broader European trip where he intended to meet Ukrainian officials and visit Rome and Paris.
“We hope that the first visits of the new American leaders will be to Ukraine. For us, visits and meetings with General Kellogg are very important, and we are in contact to determine the timeframe and fill the meeting with maximum substance,” commented Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha regarding the postponement of Kellogg’s visit.
Propagandists infused the postponed visit with significant symbolism, drawing dramatic historical parallels.
When trying to explain the reasons for the postponement of Kellogg’s visit, propagandists put as much symbolism into the cancellation as they could:
“Remember Primakov’s turn back over the Atlantic [former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov] when he learned NATO had begun bombing Yugoslavia. NATO didn’t stop the bombing despite Primakov’s symbolic gesture. Similarly, Zelenskyy won’t end the war despite all the signals from Trump’s team. He’ll need to be forced into peace. It won’t be easy,” wrote Oleg Tsaryov, a collaborationist with 363,000 Telegram followers.
In another post, Tsaryov suggested that Kellogg delayed his visit to prepare better and find a “vulnerable point” to pressure Volodymyr Zelenskyy, claiming that Trump’s Democratic opponents had “flooded Ukraine with weapons.”
“Pressuring Zelensky by threatening to freeze aid won’t work. Other levers must be found. The first thing that comes to mind is identifying Zelenskyy’s vulnerable point and targeting it. Zelenskyy has embezzled a lot of money, and such a sum is hard to hide. His money is like the egg containing Koschei the Deathless’s soul... Trump can only find Zelenskyy’s money while in office, putting his people in charge of the FBI and CIA. That’s likely why Kellogg’s visit to Kyiv was postponed — Trump wants to talk to Zelenskyy from a position of strength,” Tsaryov wrote.
An anonymous Telegram channel with one million subscribers, citing their “sources,” presented an alternative narrative of a complex scheme allegedly masterminded by Democrats to “prevent Trump from claiming credit for ending the war in Ukraine or receiving a Nobel Peace Prize.” Propagandists suggested:
“Democrats would benefit from sacrificing Ukraine to get a trump card against Trump, which would sound like this. Trump lost the war because he sold Kyiv to Moscow, which means that this will give the Democrats a trump card in the global game against the Repubs and the Trump team. Democrats would benefit from dragging out the war to bring Kyiv to the brink of surrender and force Trump to join the war, thereby dragging him into the trap they have laid for him. Then they will ‘media push’ him.”
The Office of the President of Ukraine (OPU) is allegedly already implementing this strategy:
“We also see that the OPU has devised a new argument for continuing the war: guarantees from the U.S. Naturally, this is designed by the Democrats to personalize Trump’s responsibility, but Russia won’t agree, as this is no different from NATO membership. This is exactly what the OPU and the Democrats want,” wrote a Telegram channel with 451,000 subscribers.
Propagandists generally agreed that U.S.-led peace negotiations in 2025 are “highly likely” but unlikely to yield results. They claimed:
“Trump doesn’t want peace in Eastern Europe, but wants publicity” to “report to his domestic audience that he’s fulfilling his promises.”
“From a purely pragmatic standpoint, in terms of U.S. interests, dragging out the situation as it is now seems to be the best option. The real “deal” will be offered when the parties are exhausted or at the point of psychological breakdown. Ukraine is close enough to that point, but the Americans need more,” reads a post on a Telegram channel with 140 thousand subscribers.
Over the years of resisting Russian aggression, some propagandists have stopped relegating Ukraine solely to the role of a tool in the politics of other nations. They now write that Ukraine can also influence Western politicians. This time, they used news of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ counteroffensive in the Russian Kursk region to illustrate this shift. However, to this narrative, which is already disadvantageous for Russia, propagandists added their “traditional” themes and conspiracy theories:
“The role of a ‘fortress’ has been assigned to new Ukrainian cities. The Ukrainian leadership tried to use the offensive in the Kursk region to prove to the newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump that the AFU are still capable of fighting,” a Telegram channel with nearly 142,000 subscribers paraphrased part of an interview with “political analyst” Andriy Zolotaryov by Oleksandr Shelest, a former host on Viktor Medvedchuk’s channels.
A propagandist with 472,000 subscribers combined this same idea — that Ukraine seeks to show Trump it still has military capabilities — with the claim that Ukraine’s government “does not value ordinary Ukrainians”:
“In the quasi-Reich, another ‘bloody celebration’ is underway. Zelenskyy’s regime rejoices at sending thousands of people to slaughter in its latest ‘offensive,’ conscripted off the streets by recruitment officers and police. To impress Trump, sacrificing 10,000–20,000 Ukrainians is just a trifle for Zelenskyy. Their lives are now used as a ‘fireworks display’ to make it easier for Americans to negotiate with Russia.”
The analyzed pro-Russian Telegram channels allow us to distinguish three main narratives that propagandists promoted in the first eight days of 2025 regarding Ukraine in the context of Donald Trump’s preparation for the presidency.
The first is attempts to link Ukraine to terrorist attacks and incidents in the United States, particularly events in New Orleans and Las Vegas. Propagandists aim to portray Ukraine as a source of threats to American security by manipulating facts and fabricating artificial connections between individuals and events.
The second is the use of Trump’s words about the possible annexation of other countries’ territories by the U.S. to present Russian aggression against Ukraine and the annexation of its territories as “normal.” Propagandists draw parallels between Trump’s statements about Greenland and Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territories, attempting to legitimize Russia’s aggression.
The third narrative is speculations about future U.S. policy toward Ukraine. Propagandists spread messages that Ukraine is merely a tool in the confrontation between U.S. Republicans and Democrats. They try to create the impression that Ukraine’s leadership is willing to sacrifice lives to impress the future U.S. president, thereby downplaying the real achievements of the Ukrainian army and statehood.
Main page illustration and infographic by Nataliya Lobach
