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Russian Telegram channels are spreading conspiracy theories about the defeat of the Syrian government army, once again blaming the "insidious West" and Ukraine.
On November 30, Reuters reported that Syrian military forces announced a "temporary withdrawal of troops" from the country’s largest city—Aleppo. According to the BBC, troops loyal to Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, as well as Russians who have supported the autocrat since 2015, were expelled from the city within four days, from November 27 to November 30.
With the support of Russia and Iran, Assad's loyal forces established control over Aleppo in 2016. Since then, the conflicting parties have signed several ceasefire agreements. Near-total cessation of hostilities was achieved in August 2017. Different participants in the armed conflict retained control over the territories they held at the time of the ceasefire.
Photo caption: Map showing the division of participants in the Syrian civil war as of December 1, 2024. Texty.org.ua based on information from Al Jazeera.
This time, control over Aleppo was established by a coalition of rebels led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist organization also known as the "Levant Liberation Organization." They control all parts of the city except for the area that has been under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) since 2016, another party in the Syrian armed conflict. The SDF, supported by Syria's Kurdish national minority, were situational allies of Assad during the fight against Islamic State militants who invaded Syria from Iraq during a previous active phase of hostilities.
France Presse quoted a message from the Telegram channel of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. In it, the Islamists proposed that the Kurds leave the city with their weapons. However, the Kurds' withdrawal from the city did not occur. On December 2, the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazloum Abdi, stated that "attacks by armed groups supported by Turkish occupiers" had closed the corridor used for the evacuation of Kurds from Aleppo:
"Our forces bravely defended our people in Aleppo, Tell Rifaat, and Shahba. We are working with all parties in Syria to ensure the protection of our people and their safe evacuation from Tell Rifaat and Shahba to our safe zones in the northeast of the country. Meanwhile, our forces continue to defend our people in the Kurdish neighborhoods of Aleppo," Mazloum Abdi wrote on X.
After retreating from the city, the Russians, together with Assad-loyal forces, launched strikes on the positions of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). However, as of December 6, the Russians and Assad-loyal forces had not returned to Aleppo.
Deputy Director of the Middle East Research Center, Serhiy Danylov, told Texty.org.ua that the rebel offensive in Syria on positions previously controlled by Bashar al-Assad's regime undermines Russia's status and its ability to influence the agenda in the Middle East.
"This is a very strong blow to Russia's authority and its capabilities in this region. It is a serious blow to which of their demands might be heard by neighbors and which might not," commented Serhiy Danylov.
Russian propagandists did not immediately settle on how to comment on the situation, which undermines Russia's authority. Since November 27, reports from Russian "war correspondents" and other propagandists have gone through several stages in an attempt to explain what happened in Aleppo.
Stage 1. Accusations against Ukraine
In September 2024, Detector Media analyzed that in cases of extraordinary events such as attacks on politicians or terrorist acts, it takes only a few minutes for Russian propaganda to blame Ukraine or Western states. In this case, propagandists began alleging Ukraine’s involvement with the Syrian opposition at least two weeks before the first reports about the Syrian opposition’s advances in Aleppo were published.
On November 21, a post appeared on a Telegram channel with 1.6 million subscribers stating:
“A gang associated with Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (banned in Russia) has released footage showing quadcopters with dropping systems being used to attack Syrian forces. The Islamists explicitly say they are learning from Ukraine, adopting its experience in the war against Russia.”
A week earlier, on November 14, a "war correspondent" Telegram channel with 1.1 million subscribers wrote:
“Russia has information that employees of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate are arming terrorists in Syria’s Idlib. An official reported that Ukrainians are supplying drones to Idlib, training terrorists to use them, and teaching them to create homemade versions for use against Russian and Syrian soldiers.”
After the Syrian opposition’s advance in Aleppo, accusations against Ukraine were echoed by Russian state media. On December 2, the Russian propaganda outlet RIA Novosti reported:
“The terrorists of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (a group banned in Russia, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra) managed to capture Aleppo thanks to Ukrainian advisors, a source close to Syrian intelligence told RIA Novosti. Ukrainian advisors provided assistance in preparing drones.”
This propaganda reached nearly 3.4 million Telegram subscribers, and the post was read by 658,000 users.
Stage 2. Accusations against Assad-loyal troops and Russian generals
On November 27 and 28, propaganda Telegram channels, while reporting on the fighting in Aleppo, primarily blamed Assad-loyal forces for the retreat.
“It is all as per usual: while the militants push forward, the absolutely non-combat-ready and cowardly flock called the Syrian army bravely flees, exposing the Russian group in the process. The Aerospace Forces are working, and for now, the fog of war prevails. Based on fragmentary reports, it’s still hard to draw conclusions, but things aren’t looking good,” wrote a Telegram channel with 148,000 subscribers on November 27.
Assad-loyal forces were also accused of abandoning Aleppo prematurely, observing Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham’s preparations for an attack and their initial advances:
"Syrian soldiers, watching what was happening in the militants' Telegram channels and seeing how quickly they were advancing, took off in their slippers, grabbing teapots and maté faster than the terrorists could seize new positions. This can be seen in footage from the scene, which was confirmed by our contacts who were familiar with the situation. The more territory the militant groups occupied, the faster the front collapsed," wrote a Telegram channel with 1.2 million subscribers.
However, such posts typically included another element. Alongside accusations of cowardice against Assad-loyal forces, they often included vague accusations against Russian generals. On November 27, a Telegram channel with 148,000 subscribers stated that Russia has a practice of sending “entirely unfit generals” to command its military group in Syria as a form of “honorable retirement”: “What they’ll manage to achieve there, I won’t speculate, but good luck to the fighters.”
Russian propagandists portrayed the working conditions of Russian military personnel in Syria before November 27 as a "resort for generals who failed in the 'Special Military Operation' (SVO) and are sent to a distant, warm place out of sight, where they immediately start organizing lavish parades." This narrative was shared on a Telegram channel with 862,000 subscribers on November 28. One of the generals alleged to have orchestrated such parades was Russian General Andrey Serdyukov, who led the annexation of Crimea, headed the Russian military group in Syria in 2019 and later took part in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Serdyukov commanded Russian airborne forces during the failed attempt to capture Kyiv in February-March 2022 and was reappointed to lead Russian troops in Syria in March 2023.
By December 1, 2024, the Russian forces in Syria were commanded by Russian Lieutenant General Sergey Kisel, according to Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate. In the early months of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kisel commanded Russia's First Guards Tank Army, which operated in occupied parts of Kharkiv Oblast until Ukraine's counteroffensive in September 2022.
Propagandists made Kisel the scapegoat for the retreat of Russian and Assad-loyal forces in Syria.
"To understand why a catastrophe suddenly occurred in Syria: General Kisel is currently in command there. General Kisel was one of the primary suppliers of tanks to the 'ho…y' [a derogatory term for Ukrainians] even before it became mainstream among Americans and Germans. And when, like a bolt from the blue, he was finally exposed after the complete loss of Kharkiv Oblast, he was sent to help the 'brotherly Syrian people' fight against militants," wrote a Telegram channel with 242,000 subscribers on November 29.
After Kisel's dismissal on December 1, propagandists resumed blaming Assad-loyal forces and his regime. Assad's government was described as corrupt and critically dependent on Russian support:
"The Syrian leadership has long become accustomed to others—like the Russians and Iranians—fighting on their behalf in exchange for access to the Mediterranean Sea and oil and gas fields. The funds that Russia allocated to Assad for building a combat-ready army were embezzled by Syrian bandits, both in and out of uniform," wrote a Telegram channel with 1.2 million subscribers.
The author continued, emphasizing that it was Russia that financed Syria’s recovery, supplied weapons, and trained "fighters" with Russian instructors:
"But all of this was completely squandered. Once Russia became bogged down in Ukraine (as per the original text — Detector Media’s note) and Iran escalated its confrontation with Israel, it suddenly turned out that there was hardly anyone left to fight for Assad in Syria. His main support, the Syrian pseudo-aristocracy, is clearly not going to trenches themselves."
The appropriateness of Russia's intervention in the Syrian civil war in 2015 or the occupation of part of Ukraine a year earlier was not questioned in Russian Telegram posts’ messages.
"Should we actively intervene in this new conflict? That is not the question. We are already in it! The real question is: what should our involvement look like? Rapidly increasing our military presence is impossible—resources are needed in Ukraine, and logistically, it is very difficult to do as the Black Sea route through the straits is closed to us," wrote a Telegram channel with 260,000 subscribers on December 1.
Stage 3. "Russia is the main victim"
On November 28, propagandists began developing conspiracy theories to explain why the Syrian opposition had pushed the troops of the Syrian dictator and their Russian allies out of Syria's most populous city. According to the propaganda, this happened to harm Russia.
"The US and Turkey have opened a second front against Russia to weaken the Kremlin's positions in Ukraine," wrote a propaganda Telegram channel with 71,000 subscribers on November 28.
The next day, the same Telegram channel published another post, also beginning with the statement, "The US and Turkey have opened a second front against Russia." This post suggested the possibility of two more "fronts against Russia" opening outside Russia's internationally recognized territories:
"Russia is conducting the SVO in Ukraine, fighting Turkish militants in Syria—and a third front could open in Georgia. Thus, the US and EU aim to force Russia to disperse its forces and resources, hoping the Kremlin won't manage to engage in three military conflicts simultaneously. In the future, a fourth conflict could ignite in Moldova, making it extremely difficult to fight on four fronts."
In a Telegram channel with 392,000 subscribers, the intensification of hostilities was linked to the end of Joseph Biden's presidency. The propagandist speculated about a connection between the events in Syria and the transition of the US presidency:
"And here’s an interesting point—coincidence or not? In Syria, pro-Turkish militants, well-equipped, are advancing. Meanwhile, well-equipped brigades of the 150th series have returned to former Ukraine and are now being deployed in combat. It seems someone is trying to escalate everything to the maximum before Biden's departure," read the post on November 29.
On November 30, a propaganda Telegram channel with 72,000 subscribers interpreted the events in Syria as yet another turn in the "spiral of escalation" against Russia. Almost all the previous "turns" had been topics of Detector Media Center's reports in recent weeks: long-range strikes on Russia, protests in Georgia, and protests in Abkhazia. On November 19, in this Russian-occupied part of Georgia, the pro-Russian local government's leader ("president"), Aslan Bzhania, resigned after protests. Protesters seized several administrative buildings, with the protests sparked by an investment agreement between Russia and Abkhazia's pro-Russian government. According to European Pravda, this agreement, in particular, included Abkhazia’s consent to join Russia and Belarus as a third participant in the "Union State."
The propagandists suggested that the "spiral of escalation" would continue to "unwind" after the inauguration of US President Donald Trump on January 20, 2024. The predicted future "turns" included long-range missile strikes on Russia, terrorist attacks in Russia, and "attempts to destabilize one of the Central Asian republics and Moldova."
In Telegram channels from December 1 onward, Russia was portrayed as a "victim" of Western schemes rooted in the past and as a participant in ceasefire negotiations in Syria from 2016–2017:
"We must frankly admit that the Americans will ultimately win the war—all the main Syrian resources were seized and are controlled by them during the civil war. As for us, we were skillfully ensnared by an agreement to establish a Russia-US monitoring center for the Syrian situation, which effectively legitimized the illegal presence of Americans here and deprived us of the right to oppose it," wrote a Telegram channel with 160,000 subscribers.
In their posts about the Syrian opposition’s advance, Russian propagandists are trying to find conspiratorial justifications for the defeats of the dictator Bashar al-Assad’s forces, whom Vladimir Putin chose to support in 2015. The Russians refused to acknowledge that Russia's military losses and reputational problems in Syria were the result of the decision of the Russian authorities to maintain a military contingent in the country.
Russian propagandists claimed that Syrian rebels are adopting the experience of using drones from Ukraine’s Defense Forces—a capability gained due to Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
The failures of the Russian army in Syria were also blamed on generals sent there on "honorable exile." But this, too, they noted, was a result of Russia's personnel policies.
By late November and early December, propagandists began accusing the Syrian government of being "inherently incapable" of maintaining order while shifting the focus to the "West opening a second front against Russia." However, if Russia did not feel "cramped" within its own vast territory, did not consider countries like Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia to be "parts of itself," and refrained from starting or joining armed conflicts in other countries, such as Syria, it would have fewer reasons to be nervous.
Main page illustration: Natalia Lobach
