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The summer of 2024 is brimming with international events. There were elections to the European Parliament, parliamentary elections in France and Great Britain, the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland, a debate between the leaders of the US presidential race, Trump and Biden, and Hungary began its six-month presidency of the European Union. Each of these events was reflected in the distorted mirror of Russian agitprop. From July 9-11, the 75th anniversary NATO summit was held in Washington, which propagandists did not ignore. In addition to the usual narratives that NATO's support for Ukraine only intensifies the confrontation with Russia and that all aid provided to Kyiv is futile because Russia will still win this war, we have noticed a shift in rhetoric. Russia is being forced to accept that Ukraine is on an irreversible path to NATO membership. In response, propagandists have begun to emphasize that Ukraine will gain membership, but it will not be soon. They also complained that the Alliance only escalates the war and refuses to listen to Russia. Russia remains unwilling to negotiate in accordance with international law, making unrealistic demands (such as the "Zaporizhia-Kherson ultimatum") or threatening "symmetrical measures" in response to NATO's expansion, both to NATO and Ukraine. It appears that Russia does not hope for a compromise but rather tries in every possible way to legitimize the continuation of the war.
Key Points from the NATO Summit Declaration:
Support for Ukraine's Integration: The Alliance reaffirmed its commitment to support Ukraine "on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership," as Kyiv continues its "vital work" on democratic, economic, and security reforms.
NATO Membership Pathway: Ukraine's future lies in NATO. Ukraine will be invited to join the Alliance once the Allies agree that it has met all the necessary conditions. NATO plans to provide Ukraine with 40 billion euros over the next year.
Establishment of NSATU: A NATO Security Assistance and Training Organization for Ukraine (NSATU) will be created to coordinate the supply of military equipment and training from allies and partners to Ukraine.
Condemnation of Russia's Nuclear Actions: The Alliance condemned Russia's "irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and coercive nuclear signals, including the announcement of the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus," as well as Minsk's continued support for Russia's war in Ukraine.
NATO's Stance on Russia: NATO does not seek confrontation and does not pose a threat to Russia. Allies remain ready to maintain communication channels with Moscow to "reduce risk and prevent escalation."
Expansion in Strategic Regions: NATO plans to continue its expansion in the Black Sea region and the Eastern Balkans.
China's Role in the Conflict: China has been identified as a "decisive factor" in Russia's war in Ukraine, providing support to Russia's defense and industrial base. The Alliance calls on China to stop supporting Russia's military actions.
NATO-EU Cooperation: The cooperation between NATO and the EU has gained importance in the context of Ukraine, with the Alliance prioritizing the strengthening of European defense. NATO aims to protect European populations from air and missile threats by enhancing integrated air and missile defense.
Compared to last year, the rhetoric of the Washington Summit has intensified. During the 2023 Vilnius summit, it was agreed that Kyiv would not need to receive a Membership Action Plan (MAP) for NATO membership and that Ukraine would join the Alliance directly, similar to Finland and Sweden. This year, the emphasis was on the "irreversibility of the path" and the "bridge to membership." Additionally, NATO has adopted the strongest language yet regarding China's role and responsibilities since the start of the full-scale invasion.
The commitment to finance Ukraine and the creation of a separate body to coordinate military supplies acts as a safeguard in case the center of decision-making within NATO structures shifts away from Washington.
NATO members have pledged to support Ukraine and its membership aspirations, but some remain concerned about the liability and risk to allies of accepting a country engaged in armed conflict.
At one time, NATO already provided security guarantees and involved members who had territorial disputes. In 1955, West Germany became a member of NATO, and it was made clear that East Germany, which was still a disputed territory, was not part of NATO territory, said former US ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder. Ambassador Daalder added that only undisputed parts of Ukraine would be covered by Article 5 guarantees.
"NATO is a financial pyramid": Russia's key messages to external audiences
We've collected Russia's key messages before, during, and after the summit and highlighted key rhetorical features. Propagandists no longer emphasized, as before, that Ukraine would never become a member of the Alliance, but instead emphasized that Ukraine's accession would not take place in the near future. Both Ukraine and the West understand that the country will be able to join the organization only after the end of the war. During the summit, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski remarked that "for the moment, there is a belief that Ukraine can join the Alliance only when this war ends." Since Russia can no longer feed its domestic and foreign audiences with narratives that Ukraine will never join the Alliance, it has shifted to "frustration" that this will not happen until at least the end of the war. This is an attempt to unwittingly drive the reader into a logical trap: if NATO members are ready to accept Ukraine and the only obstacle is the current war, then it is time for Kyiv to end this war. And the end of the war is apparently only possible if Putin's "Zaporizhia-Kherson ultimatum" is fulfilled: Kyiv's renunciation of Donetsk region, Luhansk region, Kherson region, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea, along with "demilitarization."
Additionally, Russian publications aimed at external audiences reiterated previously expressed theses, such as "warning" that NATO support will not help Ukraine win the war, but will only escalate the conflict, making all aid to Ukraine a waste of money. They also claimed that NATO is afraid of direct confrontation with Russia, so the aid to Ukraine is quite limited; Russia will definitely win despite the Alliance's support for Ukraine.
On the first day of the summit, the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, said that Moscow would closely monitor "the rhetoric at the negotiations, the decisions that will be made and recorded on paper." He accused NATO of an aggressive policy towards Russia: "The North Atlantic Alliance considers Russia an enemy, an adversary; it is an alliance that has repeatedly openly declared the goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield, and it is an alliance that directly participates in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of Ukraine." After the publication of the summit's declaration, Peskov stated: "We see that, in fact, NATO's military infrastructure is constantly, gradually moving towards our borders."
One of the articles from the propaganda outlet RT stated that regardless of the summit's outcomes in terms of military support for Ukraine, "the supply of Western weapons will lead to further escalation and will not be able to stop the Russian army from achieving its goals in the conflict." Another article from the same publication claimed that NATO had the opportunity to sign a treaty on comprehensive security with Moscow, but instead, the bloc chose the principle of open doors and the policy of eastward expansion, which is unacceptable to the Kremlin.
RT propagandists emphasized the comments of Western politicians critical of NATO, attempting to create the impression that this is the mainstream position and that the vast majority of Alliance members share this view, with only a few daring to voice it. For instance, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó was quoted criticizing the "liberal mainstream." Szijjártó stated that it is necessary to listen not to the West, but to Russia, regarding options for resolving the Russian-Ukrainian war. The manipulators interpreted the Hungarian minister's position as an acknowledgment by the Alliance of its failure in its approaches to the war in Ukraine. However, they claimed that despite this, NATO members continue to escalate the conflict.
RT also referenced an open letter signed by 60 experts, including representatives from universities in various countries across Europe and America, urging NATO not to admit Ukraine. The letter stated that the closer NATO gets to the promise that Ukraine will join the alliance after the end of the war, the greater the incentive for Russia to continue fighting. It also suggested that the challenges posed by Russia can be solved without the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO. RT propagandists cited this letter in almost every news story about the NATO summit.
Propagandists from Sputnik released a material attempting to sow discord among Alliance members over financial issues, describing NATO as a "new-style pyramid." They claimed that the United States is draining the defense budgets of European countries because it is the USA that receives the bulk of the orders for new types of weapons. They depicted NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg as someone who "pats the Europeans on the back" with one hand while squeezing the last resources out of them with the other.
So how does NATO "spin the flywheel of war"?
Since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Moscow has been leveraging the fears of Western political elites and voters regarding a direct confrontation with Russia. One significant fear is that of a Third World War — a direct clash between NATO and nuclear-armed Russia. One of Moscow's tactics to keep the West on edge is to provoke small military incidents, designed to exert psychological pressure and create convenient excuses for accusing NATO of deliberate escalation. However, when examining the dynamics of these incidents retrospectively, it becomes evident that they occur due to Russian actions, and it is Russia that is "spinning the flywheel" of escalation. Some analysts suggest that Russia is unlikely to provoke NATO into war or direct confrontation with Alliance troops, as it is not beneficial for the Kremlin; such a scenario would eliminate the occupying army's chances of creating a "victory picture."
According to Business Insider, clashes between Russian and NATO forces have increased since Russia seized Crimea in 2014. While there have been no large-scale clashes, several incidents can be characterized as confrontational.
Turkey shot down a Russian plane near the Syrian border, November 24, 2015. Turkey downed a Russian Su-24 aircraft that violated its airspace near the Syrian border. Turkish pilots had warned the Russians about the airspace violation before taking action. Putin described Turkey's decision as a "stab in the back."
The Su-24 is primarily used for targeted bombing. In this instance, it was targeting the Syrian Army of Turkmenistan, ethnic Turks fighting against the Syrian regime with Turkish support. Turkmen fighters were attacked by Syrian forces backed by Russians and Iranians. This led to the downing of the Russian plane on Turkish territory.
This incident temporarily strained relations between Ankara and Moscow: Russia increased its military presence in Syria and urged its citizens to avoid traveling to Turkey. Additionally, Russia imposed sanctions on Turkey, which were lifted in 2019. However, since 2016, when Erdoğan expressed condolences to the family of the fallen Russian pilot, the two countries have been on a path of rapprochement.
Incident in the Baltic Sea, April 11-12, 2016. Russian warplanes came within 10 meters of the USS Donald Cook, a US Navy destroyer conducting exercises in the Baltic Sea. The destroyer, armed with dozens of Tomahawk nuclear cruise missiles with a range of up to 2,500 kilometers, was located about 70 kilometers from Baltiysk in Russia's Kaliningrad region. Fighter jets made several low flights at extreme proximity to the ship. On April 12, a Russian helicopter circled the ship at low altitude seven times, and soon after, two Su-24s made another 11 similar flights. The Donald Cook was in Russia's exclusive economic zone, but outside the country's territorial sea (12 nautical miles), meaning it was there legally and did not violate the Russian border. The US Navy considered the behavior of the Russians as a "simulated attack." The exercises were suspended due to the danger posed by Russian aircraft.
Incident in the Black Sea, June 2021. On June 14, the British destroyer HMS Defender, which was set to participate in the Sea Breeze-2021 exercise, entered the Black Sea through the Bosphorus Strait and docked in Odessa. Ukrainian special forces conducted training on capturing a ship onboard. From June 22 to 23, the ship left for Georgia. While passing through the international corridor near Sevastopol, a route crossing a 12-mile zone of Ukrainian territorial waters currently occupied by Russia, it allegedly encountered a British vessel. Moscow claimed to have fired four high-explosive aerial bombs and a warning shot at the HMS Defender, which Britain denied. They asserted their ship passed unhindered through Ukrainian territorial waters towards Georgia while some Russian naval exercises were happening nearby.
The passage of the British destroyer Defender was part of NATO's response to the incident near the Kerch Strait. On November 25, 2018, Russian border ships attacked and seized two Ukrainian boats and a tugboat in the Kerch Strait. All 24 sailors on the ships were captured. In response, the Alliance aimed to increase the presence of its ships in the Black Sea to preserve freedom of navigation and deter Russia.
Regular Violations of NATO's Eastern Flank Airspace. There have been numerous instances of Russian aircraft violating the airspace of NATO member states, prompting NATO aircraft to intercept the violators. Such cases often occur in the Baltic and North Sea regions.
As Reuters reports, in 2023 alone, NATO air forces in Europe intercepted Russian warplanes more than 300 times as they approached the Alliance's airspace. The number of NATO fighter sorties to intercept Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea region increased by 20-25% in the first quarter of 2024. Notably, in 2024, the Russians have mostly used surveillance or transport planes when approaching NATO airspace, rather than fighters or strategic bombers as before.
Interception of an American Drone by a Russian Fighter in the Black Sea on March 14, 2023. A Russian Su-27 jet dropped fuel on a US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper unmanned reconnaissance aircraft over the Black Sea in an attempt to blind or damage it. The incident occurred in international airspace. The United States accused Russia of a "dangerous and unprofessional" interception that led to the drone's crash into the Black Sea.
Russian Missiles Over Poland.
Incident on November 15, 2022. A missile fell on the territory of Poland, in the village of Przewodów near the border with Ukraine, killing two people. This incident occurred during Russia's attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, marking the first time a foreign missile landed on NATO territory since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Initially, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported it was a Russian-made missile, and the Russian ambassador was summoned. However, after investigation, the Polish Prosecutor General's Office stated the missile was Ukrainian. The White House remarked that the ultimate responsibility lay with Russia, which launched the missile barrage over Ukraine, prompting Ukraine to defend itself.
Incident on December 16, 2022. A Russian Kh-55 missile flew 400 km deep into Poland, landing near Bydgoszcz, a city with over 300,000 residents and home to five NATO units and the Joint Forces Training Center. Initially, Poland did not recognize it as a Russian missile. Later, the situation became a point of internal Polish political contention, with the Operational Commander of the armed forces being blamed. Deputy Defense Minister Marcyn Ochepa explained, "We are not talking about a missile aimed at Poland... It was meant to confuse the Ukrainian anti-missile defense system but malfunctioned and self-destructed."
Incident on March 24, 2024. A Russian cruise missile launched by long-range aircraft remained in Polish airspace near the Lublin Voivodeship for 39 seconds. The Polish command did not shoot down the missile, knowing it would leave Polish airspace. Lt. Col. Jacek Horyszewski, spokesman of the Operational Command of the Armed Forces, stated, "Most Russian missiles come from the east or north; defenders are less likely to expect an attack from the west. Therefore, Russia deliberately maneuvers its missiles to make a circle and hit targets in Ukraine from the west."
Russian Drones in Romania. A series of Russian drone incursions into Romanian territory was recorded in September 2023 when the aggressor attacked the port infrastructure of Ukraine's Odesa region. On the night of September 3-4, two detonations were recorded in Romania near the port of Izmail, though official Bucharest denied the incident. On September 6, during a Russian attack on Ukrainian Danube port infrastructure, part of a drone fell near the Romanian village of Plauru, opposite the Izmail port. On September 13, the Romanian Ministry of Defense announced the discovery of new wreckage near the cities of Nuferul and Victoria, which might be drone parts. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg stated he saw no signs that Russia had deliberately attacked Romania.
On the night of December 13-14, 2023, a Russian drone attempting to attack Ukrainian port infrastructure on the Danube fell in the Romanian border region. Romanian Armed Forces' surveillance radar detected a potential unauthorized violation of national airspace by identifying a low-altitude signal on one of the routes. Romania raised F-16 fighter jets and Eurofighter warplanes in response.
Summit Observations
From the Summit, it is evident that Russia is promoting the narrative that NATO allegedly escalated the situation, leaving Russia with no choice. Additionally, propagandists have ceased promoting the claim to external audiences that NATO will never invite Ukraine to join the organization. Instead, they are now emphasizing that NATO membership is not imminent and will only be possible once hostilities cease. Consequently, Russia will continue to exert maximum effort to prolong the war against Ukraine.
