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On July 13, former U.S. President and current presidential candidate Donald Trump was nearly assassinated. Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old, fired several shots during a campaign rally speech. One bullet grazed Trump's ear as he turned his head to look at an infographic on immigration statistics. According to Trump, this turn prevented the bullet from hitting him directly in the head. Other bullets struck random rally attendees, resulting in one fatality and two serious injuries. The shooter was immediately neutralized by US Secret Service snipers, responsible for the protection of presidents and candidates.
This near-fatal attack on a leading candidate for the presidency of the world's most powerful nation garnered global media attention. Predictably, Russian propagandists seized the opportunity to spin conspiracy theories around the event, predicting dire consequences for Ukraine.
Who ordered Donald Trump: Ukrainians or the deep state
Immediately following the assassination attempt, before all the details were known, several Russian deputies swiftly accused Ukraine. Simultaneously, they praised Trump, expressing hope that he would contribute to "restoring order in terms of world security" after the attack. Russian State Duma deputy Sultan Khamzayev claimed that Trump was targeted because of his promises and suggested that a Ukrainian link could be easily identified.
Serhiy Tsekov, a "senator" from occupied Crimea, echoed this sentiment, urging U.S. authorities to "consider the possibility of Ukrainian special services being involved in the attempt." In his address, Tsekov also criticized the Ukrainian authorities for their alleged negative remarks about Trump, though he did not provide specific examples. As "evidence" of a "Ukrainian footprint," Russian Telegram channels circulated a screenshot of an Instagram page purportedly belonging to Matthew Crooks. The page contained only three posts, one showing support for Ukraine, and a link to an online store.
Screenshot from Matthew Crooks Instagram page
Another representative of the occupying power in Crimea, Mykhailo Sheremet, even compared Donald Trump to John Kennedy, though he shifted the blame away from Ukraine to another theory. Sheremet stated, "Trump, just like Kennedy, advocates for lasting peace on our planet, which apparently displeases some, especially the military corporations backing the current US President Biden's regime." Sheremet did not criticize Russia's military corporations, which are also not known for favoring global peace.
The most comprehensive accusations against Ukraine came from former Deputy Viktor Medvedchuk, who is accused of high treason. Medvedchuk published a lengthy letter to Trump, filled with overt flattery, claiming, "There is no more inhumane and cruel regime in the world than the Nazi regime of Ukrainian dictator Volodymyr Zelensky." He asserted that Trump has become a "personal enemy" of Zelensky, who "will stop at nothing" to prevent Trump's election victory. Medvedchuk suggested that Zelensky's disdain for Trump stems from Trump's desire to stop the "bloody regime" and the "curators from the Biden administration" from waging war. Those actually responsible for starting the war and seeking to seize Ukrainian territory were only mentioned in the context of the alleged Ukrainian attempt to assassinate Vladimir Putin, implying they could do the same to Trump. Medvedchuk did not explain why Ukrainians dislike Putin or why hostilities continue.
The letter's tone is encapsulated in its heading, stating that Medvedchuk's organization, "Other Ukraine," holds a "certificate of state registration from the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation." In the final paragraph, Medvedchuk reveals the letter's main aim: urging "global political players" to swiftly commence "negotiations on a new restructuring of the world," clearly excluding Ukraine from these talks, except for the "other Ukraine" endorsed by Russia.
The letterhead of Viktor Medvedchuk's pro-Russian movement "Another Ukraine" accusing Ukraine of attempting to assassinate Trump
Anonymous propagandist Telegram channels, posing as "Ukrainian," extensively discussed the theory that the assassination attempt on Trump was orchestrated by the current American authorities and the mythical American "deep state." They scarcely mentioned the "Ukrainian trail," likely because promoting such a version to the Ukrainian audience seems less plausible than the conspiracy theories popular in American society.
The main thesis of this conspiracy theory is that the assassination attempt on Trump was either entirely organized by his opponents in power, or the attack was deliberately "missed." An anonymous Telegram channel with a million subscribers wrote, "The secret service completely failed the security of the presidential candidate, allowing five shots to be fired before eliminating the sniper... The attempt was prepared and executed, but an accident, a misfire, or a plan saved Trump's life and essentially handed him victory in the presidential elections."
In the US, the attacker's proximity to Trump and the shooting are indeed discussed as a security failure. However, this is attributed not to deliberate sabotage but to organizational problems within the Secret Service—such as a lack of personnel, the forced involvement of other organizations (including local police), and resulting poor coordination between various security participants at the event. Nonetheless, conspiracy theorists refuse to believe that such events can occur without malicious intent. They compare the attempt on Trump to similar attacks on Slovak President Robert Fico and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (also labeled an anti-globalist), stating, "A lone gunman who managed to act with the Secret Service's wild negligence. This situation screams that the Deep State is at work (as usual, using others). The trend of physically eliminating anti-globalist leaders (Abe, Fico, Trump) continues" (anonymous Telegram channel with 400,000 subscribers).
"Trump will come, he will bring order"
Another popular topic in propaganda Telegram channels was the manipulation of potential consequences following the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. They claim that, firstly, the failed attack has guaranteed Trump's election victory. Secondly, they suggest his return to the White House would be a significant problem for Ukraine, especially for its leaders.
Anonymous Telegram channels assert that the Ukrainian authorities have allegedly severed relations with Trump and his associates, implying he will seek revenge upon returning to power. They specifically mention Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President, accusing him of "abandoning Trump's people." One channel with a million subscribers wrote, "It was Yermak who defrauded Trump and sided with Biden, destroying all cases related to 'Burisma' and the 'hateful' Trump. Yermak's reckoning might be severe. A full audit of the American funds allocated to Ukraine will undoubtedly begin, uncovering significant corruption and schemes." Another channel with a similar-sized audience frames Trump's potential victory as part of a broader narrative of Ukraine's "completely lost foreign policy track." They claim that the culmination of this diplomatic failure will be the U.S. elections, after which "all Western leaders will pack their bags and forget about Ukraine."
Propagandists are discussing not only the assassination attempt on Trump but also broader trends in American politics, particularly the rising influence of Trumpists. One anonymous Telegram channel highlighted how Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican minority leader, was booed by his party members on the first day of the convention where Trump was officially nominated as the Republican candidate. They suggest McConnell has not been forgiven for acknowledging Joe Biden's 2020 election victory and condemning Trump for inciting the Capitol storming. Propagandists see this event as indicative of their viewpoint: "The main lobbyist of the Office of the President in the Republican Party was Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell. Thanks to $50 million from Andriy Yermak, he was able to secure support in Congress."
Another significant event at the Republican convention following the assassination attempt was Trump's selection of his vice presidential nominee, James David (JD) Vance. Vance, a representative of the conservative wing and a critic of aid to Ukraine, was seen as a promising choice by propagandists. Anonymous Telegram channels noted that Vance "opposed military and financial aid to Ukraine," but also pointed out that he believes such aid should be tied "to the strategy of ending the Russian-Ukrainian war as soon as possible." They highlighted Vance's criticism of the draft law banning the UOC MP for violating the rights of believers and his suggestion to use aid to Ukraine to "ensure and guarantee real religious freedom."
JD Vance is indeed a unique politician; some of his positions align closely with Kremlin narratives while diverging from reality. However, the details of his views show that Vance is not entirely against supporting Ukraine, but he wants to limit it and tie it to specific conditions. Furthermore, Vance's actions and views as a senator may differ from his potential role as vice president. It is worth noting that he once publicly called Trump an "idiot" and "Hitler for America."
Propagandists, both on and off Telegram, are particularly focused on the notion that Putin is eagerly anticipating Trump's potential return to "end the war" and "share the sphere of influence" with him. This implies coercing Ukraine not just into peace negotiations but into capitulating to Russia's demands. Given the enthusiasm of Putin's propaganda and the extensive flattery they bestow upon Trump, it is evident that Moscow has high hopes for Trump's return. The only question that remains is whether Trump will meet their expectations.
