"Political Hurricane": How Russian Agitational Propaganda Reacted to the Postponement of "Ramstein" Meetings and the Second Peace Summit

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A hurricane is a "convenient excuse," and Zelenskyy is "just annoying": this is how pro-Russian Telegram channels commented on the refusal of the U.S. President to come to the "Ramstein" meeting, which was supposed to take place in Germany on October 12.

Joseph Biden's visit to Germany was supposed to be his first official visit to an important European ally during his entire presidency. The program also included a continuation of the tour of Europe and, subsequently, some countries in Africa (for example, Angola). However, the approaching hurricane "Milton," which could become one of the three most destructive hurricanes in the last century, and the intensification of the electoral struggle in swing states radically changed the plans of the White House leader. President Biden is still actively participating in the electoral campaign, using the last weeks of his term to overcome public skepticism and defend the results of his economic reforms—for himself and to support Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign. We analyze how Russian agitational propaganda reacted to the postponement of the "Ramstein" meeting. To study the narratives of Russian propaganda, a dataset of 1,812 messages from October 9, 2024, was analyzed, with information provided by the TeleZip / Mantis Analytics project.

Pro-Russian Telegram channels are reacting to the postponement of the "Ramstein" meeting similarly to how they responded to Volodymyr Zelenskyy's trip to the United States at the end of September. They claim that President Zelenskyy was not "convincing enough," which is why the discussion of the details of Ukraine's victory plan was postponed until Biden's meeting with European leaders in "Ramstein." The absence not only of Biden but also of other American officials (such as Secretary of State Antony Blinken) supposedly means that "Western sponsors are tired of Ukraine" and prefer to focus on "more urgent tasks— the Arab-Israeli conflict or the cyclone over Florida."

In 13 messages across various Telegram channels in the analyzed dataset, "Milton" was referred to as a "political hurricane," which, according to commentators, "blew away Zelensky's plans for support in Ramstein." Readers were convinced that U.S. President Joseph Biden is not flying to Germany simply because "the position has changed, plans have changed," and the natural disaster threatening the southern states could "destroy the Kyiv regime." The author of a channel with nearly 50,000 subscribers further expands the analogy, comparing the potential political consequences of the hurricane to the greatest technological disaster in human history: "Just as Chernobyl became a 'sign of the end' for the USSR, so 'Milton' risks becoming a 'sign of the end' for the U.S." This means that the agitational propaganda itself acknowledges how significant this hurricane has become in the context of the intensifying electoral struggle in the U.S., rather than merely serving as a backdrop for criticism of both the American and Ukrainian presidents.

The authors of some small anonymous channels with audiences of a few hundred subscribers fantasized about how quickly Ukraine would agree to negotiations with Russia in the event of losing U.S. support:

"How quickly would Zelenskyy and Co. rush to negotiate with us if the U.S. were actually blown off the face of the Earth tomorrow? Would they have time to put on their slippers, or would they be shopping in TSUM?"

In propaganda Telegram channels with small audiences, a typical reaction to Biden's cancellation of his visit to Germany was to devalue the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and residents. They claimed that U.S. domestic politics take priority and that Ukrainian military personnel, who are waiting for the announcement of a new support package and new arms supplies, can afford to wait:

"For Joe Biden, the lives of Ukrainians are less significant than his own political rating. Mykola can hold out in his little trench for now while the U.S. president promotes himself at various operational headquarters and takes personal control of the situation."

This reaction does not take into account that previous "Ramstein" meetings were held at the level of defense ministers or representatives of ministries and that various support programs for Ukraine (for example, under the U.S. Presidential Drawdown Authority, PDA) continue precisely due to the efforts of President Biden, who extended them despite the end of the budget year in the U.S. at the end of September. This mechanism allowed the U.S. Department of Defense to quickly supply equipment and weapons from its own stockpiles worth nearly $6 billion even after October 1.

In another Telegram channel with nearly 127,000 subscribers, while explaining the reasons behind the refusal of American officials to attend "Ramstein," the author partly resorts to conspiracy theories, claiming that "the U.S. president no longer makes independent decisions" and that "the forces controlling him" want to shift the responsibility for the "Ukrainian crisis" onto the EU, at least until after the electoral campaigns in the U.S.:

"Neither Joe, Blinken, nor Kamala want to be presented as the main drivers of the Ukrainian crisis. Let the EU stew over this mess until the elections, or even a bit longer."

In the analyzed sample, there were no recorded conspiracy theories linking Hurricane "Milton" to the alleged ability of the U.S. government to "control the weather." Instead, such theories circulated this week on American social media. As reported by "Radio Free Europe," disinformation spread in the U.S. claimed that the U.S. government deliberately directed the hurricane toward states that predominantly support Republicans. The conspiracy theory was particularly based on a tweet from Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene on platform X, in which she wrote: "Yes, they can control the weather." This theory was quickly picked up and spread by pro-Kremlin Russian media.

Russian propagandist Yuriy Podolyaka, with over three million subscribers on Telegram, propagated the idea that the meeting in the "Ramstein" format was supposedly intentionally postponed to take place closer to the presidential election voting day in the U.S. (November 5), likely to provide an electoral advantage to the Democratic Party candidate:

"The West will try to 'drag it out' until the elections in the U.S. Either the meeting of the sponsors of the Zelenskyy regime will happen just before the voting (to gain extra votes), or it will take place after Election Day."

Some anonymous channels relayed Volodymyr Zelenskyy's "reaction" to Biden's decision not to fly and to remain with the American people "in times of trial." However, they drew a cynical analogy between the situation of preparing for a natural disaster and the response to the Russian shelling that hit the "Okhmatdyt" hospital on July 8. In a Telegram channel with over 430,000 subscribers, they expressed surprise that "for some reason," Zelenskyy did not interrupt his foreign visit at that time, even though he now supports Biden's decision not to fly. Indeed, on July 8, Ukraine's President visited Warsaw before his trip to Washington, where a NATO Summit took place on July 9. The signing of a security agreement with Poland, which occurred on the day of another massive shelling and systematic strikes on civilian infrastructure, can be seen as a response to Russian missile terror.

Another reaction from propagandists to the postponement of the meeting was to exaggerate the significance and scale of the "Ramstein" meeting and its "obviously anti-Russian" orientation. For example, Sergei Markov, a former member of the State Duma of Russia and political technologist, wrote in his Telegram channel that the "main" event on October 12 was supposed to be a "closed" meeting of leaders from the U.S., Britain, France, and Germany: 

"They had to define a new strategy for the war against Russia. Escalation? Or peace negotiations?"

The hurricane was supposedly just an excuse to postpone the meeting, where they would decide what to finally "do with Russia": engage in negotiations or, conversely, "raise the level of escalation": 

"The hurricane in Florida right now is a test: if Biden fails it, Harris will lose the election. Therefore, Biden has abandoned Ukraine and Ramstein and pretends to be managing the fight against the hurricane. Once the hurricane ends, everyone will gather for these meetings," Markov continues.

There was also an opposing thesis. Readers of an anonymous Telegram channel with over 240,000 subscribers were convinced that Biden simply chose the hurricane as an excuse. At the same time, the other European leaders supposedly "were scared" to go to "Ramstein" to avoid taking responsibility for allowing strikes on Russian territory with long-range weapons: 

"Biden had the excuse of the hurricane approaching Florida, although he didn’t care about past hurricanes, fires, and technological disasters. The others decided they didn’t want to be the ones responsible for striking Russia, and the 'drug lord' with his stillborn plans for victory has become quite tiresome for them."

Discussions about granting Ukraine permission to strike military targets on Russian territory with Western long-range missiles are still ongoing. However, the new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that there are legal grounds for such a decision, and it depends on the will of individual Alliance members—meaning it does not require a special collective meeting. At the same time, Ukraine continues to strike military facilities deep within Russia using its own weapons—on this matter, the leaders of the countries participating in "Ramstein" have not expressed any public concerns.

In addition to the postponement of the meeting of European leaders at the Ramstein military base, pro-Russian Telegram channels commented on the news about the postponement of the second Peace Summit. On October 8, the advisor to the head of the President's Office, Darya Zarivna, suggested that the date for the second Global Peace Summit would be determined after all the consulting conferences were completed, the last of which will take place on October 30–31 in Canada.

However, anonymous Telegram channels had already decided in advance that Zelenskyy had "canceled" the second Peace Summit because "no one wanted to come." Some Russian media Telegram channels spread the opinion that the Ukrainian president made this decision "against the backdrop of the collapse of the Armed Forces of Ukraine":

"Officially, the meeting has been postponed to the future. Zelenskyy also made it clear that he would not negotiate with Moscow under any circumstances. All this is happening against the backdrop of the collapse of the Armed Forces. In these conditions, Zelenskyy relies on elite neo-Nazi brigades for his protection."

The previously mentioned political technologist Markov continued the idea of canceling or postponing both the Ramstein meeting and the second Global Peace Summit in a comment for another Russian propaganda media outlet, "Moskovskiy Komsomolets": "If the higher-ups aren't coming, there's no point in gathering." He claimed that if Ukraine started discussing postponement, there would be no summit, and Zelenskyy's "victory plan" would confidently transform into a "defeat plan."

Ukrainian diplomacy is making efforts to find opportunities to gain advantages on the battlefield and to persuade allies of the necessity to continue applying pressure on Russia. Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, states that Ukraine aims to hold the second Global Peace Summit by the end of this year, with Russia's participation. However, direct bilateral negotiations with Moscow are currently excluded. Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues negotiations within the EU with leaders of Union countries. For example, on October 9, a meeting took place in London with the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and the NATO Secretary General, after which the President of Ukraine announced that the development of the "victory plan" with allies would continue to create conditions "for ending the war in a just manner." On Friday, October 11, a meeting was held in Berlin, where negotiations were being held between Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Analyst Aaron Sobchak wrote in his article that the postponement of "Ramstein" undoubtedly disappoints Volodymyr Zelensky. However, Western support for Ukraine's peace plans depends on many factors, including changes in fiscal policy and budget formation in France and Germany, as well as the position of Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris regarding Ukraine's NATO membership. Nonetheless, the situation on the battlefield—the pace of Russia's advance, as well as the sentiments among Ukrainian military personnel and civilians—remains a crucial factor.

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Main page illustration credits: Natalia Lobach