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On the night of April 13-14, 2024, Iran launched a massive combined air strike against Israel, launching, according to various sources, a total of 350 to 500 attack drones and missiles of various types. This was the first direct clash between the countries, and the weapons were launched directly from within Iran. In addition to the Iranian forces, their proxies from Yemen, Iraq, and other neighboring countries were involved in the strikes. They were countered by a coalition of forces that included the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries. Initially, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) claimed 99% of Iranian weapons were shot down. Subsequently, it turned out that some drones and missiles were intercepted in the airspace of other countries or crashed due to malfunctions. Soon after, Israeli experts reassessed the interception's effectiveness at 84% and confirmed that some military targets (air bases) had been hit.
Israel's response was not immediate and less extensive than expected, primarily due to the White House administration's stance and the fears of the United States and other allies of a full-scale regional conflict. As well as due to the fact that, according to Israeli officials, the brunt of the Iranian attack on Israeli territory was effectively thwarted. However, on the night of April 19, Israel did launch a limited retaliatory strike, prohibiting its own aircraft from flying directly into Iranian airspace. Iranian officials and media did not comment on the results of this strike in detail, calling the explosions reported near the nuclear facilities outside the city of Isfahan "a failed attack by a few small quadcopters."
Russia used this situation to advance its global strategy of stirring up chaos, diverting attention from its invasion of Ukraine, and transitioning from a global system of international relations to strengthening regional influences, where the leading country in a "fiefdom" region may not obey international law or transnational security organizations.
Regional and global reactions
Even before Israel launched its retaliatory attack, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that it was Israel that was trying to ignite a new regional conflict in the Middle East, and that Iran was forced to act in response to the West's "double standards." He explained that Tel Aviv was the first to start the current round of escalation, hitting one of the buildings of the Iranian embassy in Damascus and killing several high-ranking Iranian officers and soldiers. In fact, Erdogan has echoed the words of Iran's representative to the UN, who said that Iran was only taking "self-defense measures" and called on the United States not to interfere in what Tehran considers a matter between the two countries: "Iran's military actions, carried out in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter on legitimate defense, were a response to the aggression of the Zionist regime (Israel — DM). The case can be considered closed".
In this way, Iran is adopting the Russian strategy of so-called "regional conflicts" and "regional hegemons". Russia also commonly justifies its aggressive and invasive behavior by the need to protect itself from "NATO's aggression" or the need to protect "Russian-speaking populations" in neighboring countries. Under this model, the world should be divided between regional rather than global powers. Other states, international organizations, international law, or human rights in general should not interfere in conflicts waged by a regional hegemon.
Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi blamed the attack in Damascus more than just on Israel, and, announcing the inevitable revenge that took place on the night of April 13-14, outlined a much wider circle of parties involved: "[...] the destructive actions of the United Nations, the United States and Western countries forced Iran to strike at Israel". This statement was made during a conversation with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani and was aimed at consolidating supporters of the "Ayatollah regime" in the region and within the country. Vladimir Putin contented himself with a telephone conversation with Raisi, which consisted of nothing of substance beyond ritualistic diplomatic phrases about "the unresolved Palestinian-Israeli conflict" and hopes for "deepening Iranian-Russian cooperation, including the implementation of infrastructure projects." According to the Kremlin, the conversation was initiated by the Iranian side. A more illustrative fact of such cooperation was, for example, the mid-March joint naval exercises of Russia, Iran, and China in the Gulf of Oman.
Meanwhile, the West continues to pursue a "de-escalation" strategy. As was the case with Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries and oil depots, Western politicians called on Israel either not to respond at all to Iran's unprecedented (both in terms of origin and scale) attack, or to respond in a restrained and asymmetrical manner. In particular, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Foreign Secretary David Cameron voiced this opinion. Answering a question from a journalist who compared Iran's attack on Israel to Russia's attacks on Ukraine and the ability of Western countries to collectively counter them, Cameron said that British planes cannot shoot down drones over Ukraine, as this could pose a risk of escalation and a large-scale war in Europe.
The New Axis of Evil
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), this combined attack shows that Iran is learning from the Russians and the Houthis, and this attack is similar to those that Russia has repeatedly carried out against Ukraine. The Iranian approach mirrors Russia's experimentation with combining ballistic and cruise missiles with drones to develop increasingly effective strike combinations that can potentially penetrate U.S. and European missile and air defense systems.
Israeli Ambassador to Russia Simona Halperin vainly hoped that her Russian "colleagues" would condemn the Iranian attack on Israeli territory and that Russia would be able to counter Iran's attempts to destabilize the region. In response, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova asked Halperin to remind her when Israel had condemned at least one attack by the "Kyiv regime" on Russian regions, pointing out that she "does not remember a single one." Instead, Israel allegedly routinely issues statements in support of the "terrorist actions of Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other representatives of the Kyiv regime," which result in civilian deaths and destruction of civilian infrastructure in Russia. Later, Russia's representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, issued several accusatory statements against Israel at a Security Council meeting and justified Iran's attack, characterizing the Security Council meeting itself as a "parade of hypocrisy." Russia itself, however, is notorious for convening UN Security Council meetings in the wake of its own crimes to mitigate the media fallout, for example, after the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant or the latest attempt to escalate the situation at the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
Z-Flavored Friendship
Russian propagandists were quick to follow Russian officials in assessing the events and reaffirming Russia's unequivocal pro-Iranian stance. State-supported propagandist Sergei Mardan said on TV that Russia supports Iran's attack on Israel because Iran is Russia's military ally. He also expressed his wishes and hopes that Iran would shoot down American and Israeli fighters. Such words, along with the position of the officials, may outline Russia's drift from the traditional image of a "peacemaker" and "alternative force" in the Middle East to one of the parties to the long-running conflict.
On his Telegram channel, Israeli-Ukrainian military observer Yigal Levin published an example of how this information agenda is being promoted in Telegram's so-called Z-segment (Russian propaganda) and in the channels run by Russian "military correspondents." "Russian soldiers started a 'flash mob' to put inscriptions in support of Iran, such as 'Russia Zupports Iran', on FPV drones, emphasizing the fact that Iran is helping Russia (implicitly referring to the supply of Shahed UAVs and technology for their large-scale assembly in Russia — DM).
Source: Telegram channel of military observer Yigal Levin
Meanwhile, in Israel itself, a campaign of paid advertisements has been launched on social media, such as Facebook, after Tel Aviv's retaliatory strike on Iranian territory, featuring cartoons that are intended to portray Russia as a "true ally" that is extending a "helping hand" even as the United States allegedly "turned its back" on Israel at the most crucial moment when "the country of the Star of David is on fire." The pro-Russian caricature tries to exploit the "Israeli response to Iran," which has gone almost unnoticed even within Israeli society, which is still primarily preoccupied with the return of hostages after the October 7, 2023, attack by the Hamas terrorist group. Mass protests, numbering thousands, against Benjamin Netanyahu's government have resumed, with demands for early elections and increased efforts to free the hostages. Citizens and soldiers are too fatigued by the prolonged confrontation in Gaza to respond to Netanyahu's traditional rhetoric of "Iranian intimidation" for political mobilization. Local political observer Itamar Eichner writes that Israel is watching and noticing the difference between Putin's rhetoric and that of his propagandists or Foreign Ministry officials. In addition to the statements made by Mardan and Zakharova, he cites the words of former Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin as an example of Moscow's chauvinism, who said that in a full-scale war, Iran would defeat Israel because "...the Israeli army does not have very good fighters, except for those from Russia, who make up the entirety of the IDF special forces."
Source: Shalom, Psikhdom: Novosti Izrailya Telegram channel
To add to the picture, we can cite examples of how Kremlin propaganda utilizes Iran's attack on Israel to its advantage in countries neighboring Ukraine. In its studies, Detector Media has analyzed how Russia was using the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, to divert attention from the Russian-Ukrainian war and to attempt to persuade audiences in different societies that "Biden loves Israel more" and that all aid intended for Ukraine will now be directed to the Middle East.
For example, immediately after Iran's unprecedented attack and Israel's limited response, pro-Russian Telegram channels in Poland posted the following. Układ Warszawski (literally, Warsaw Pact, over 7000 subscribers): "Israel has carried out a long-announced 'limited' attack on Iran. What does 'carried out' mean? The strike was so 'limited' that Iran hardly noticed it." Another example: "In contrast to the obvious effects of the Iranian missile strike on the Nevatim air base in Israel, satellite images of the Iranian air base in Isfahan show no significant damage."
They also call this exchange of attacks the "Phoney War 2.0," as if it were following a script. Another Telegram channel, Niezależny dziennik polityczny (Independent Political Journal, over 12,000 subscribers), directly quoted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' threats to attack Israeli nuclear infrastructure.
Similar tactics were used by pro-Russian channels in Moldova. Quotes from Russian officials are presented in full, for example, the words of Maria Zakharova, and anything that contradicts this view is accompanied by emotionally charged comments. For example, the rather neutral condemnation of the escalation in the region by the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell is followed by an appeal to him: "You bastard, tell us about Israel's attacks on Gaza" (Telegram channel "Pridnestrovets", over 74 thousand subscribers).
Despite Ukraine and Israel being attacked by de facto allies (Russia and Iran), the situation with regard to external security guarantees is markedly different. While Israel is not a member of the North Atlantic Alliance, it has been a Major Non-NATO Ally since 1989, and the memorandum of understanding on U.S. foreign defense aid to Israel signed in 2016 offers a 10-year planning horizon and provides for annual U.S. financial assistance of $3.8 billion for the period of 2019-2028. For its part, in the context of Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine, aware of the need to strengthen ties with its allies and partners, is concluding separate agreements on security guarantees with various countries, the first of which was the United Kingdom, and is pursuing its strategic goal of joining NATO.
Russia maintains a "system of international relations" where striking another country's territory with missiles and drones is just another form of international relations, yet it is Russia that is responsible for trying to normalize this approach.
