Masking confusion and justifying war crimes. Overview of the Russian media space and military propaganda in May 2023. Part 2

Українською читайте тут.

The first part of this analysis can be found here.

The raid of Russian volunteers in the Belgorod region and the drone attack in the suburbs of Moscow once again revealed the weak points of Russian propaganda, particularly its anti-crisis communications. Its main vulnerability remains the Kremlin's desire to downplay or completely silence its severe mistakes and failures.

The very silence of the Russian president’s administration is interpreted by various media influence centers (editors of TV channels, news agencies, websites, and Telegram channels) as "freedom of creativity" and the right to create and distribute versions of events with various degrees of fakeness and plausibility. Some are later appropriated by the authorities and spread as an official and approved narrative; the rest are rejected and denied. Therefore, such moments of crisis allow us to analyze how the mechanisms of creation and centralized distribution of propaganda messages operate in Russia.

Belgorod case

To begin with, Yevgeny Prigozhin himself announced military operations on the territory of the Belgorod region on May 11. It was performed in the form of a "horror story". It supposedly meant that if the "Wagnerians" will not get help to capture Bakhmut in May, Ukrainian troops would attack the Russian border regions: Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod.

Moreover, the governors of the Belgorod and Kursk regions told how dangerous the border areas with Ukraine have become and how the authorities are preparing to deal with these threats:

05/19/23, Tsargrad TV:

"Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk regions regularly become targets for shelling by the Armed Forces [of Ukraine]. In the spring of 2023, the number of Ukrainian attacks increased, and they were not aimed at the military but at civilian targets. The number of attacks comes close to thousands [of attacks], not including sabotage cases. There are suspicions of shelling with prohibited phosphorus, residents exploding on mines, and shells filled with explosive elements to kill as many people as possible. What is happening in the borderlands of Russia, and what should be done about it?

The Belgorod region appears most often in such summaries. The question of when the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck the region sounds like a joke. The correct wording is - how many such shellings were there today, how many people died and were injured, and what was damaged?

The general data for the Belgorod region, announced by Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov during a report to regional deputies on April 20, are impressive. According to him, “since the beginning of the SMO [special military operation], the region has been attacked more than 2,300 times. Just think about these numbers. By April 20, the special military operation had already lasted 421 days. If you divide the number of strikes by the number of days, it turns out the Belgorod region was shelled at least five times a day. Every day. These are indicators close to what Ukraine has been doing, for example, with the Donetsk region since 2014. Gladkov said the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked the Belgorod region 326 times with drones and 15 sabotage cases. Ukrainians damaged or destroyed more than 3,300 houses and 660 cars. Social facilities were also affected: 57 schools and kindergartens, 636 energy infrastructure facilities, and 137 commercial buildings were closed. Among other things, 19 thousand hectares of agricultural land and 386 km of roads were damaged or destroyed. 30 people died, and more than 120 residents were injured. These figures still do not reflect the full extent of the de facto martial law. De jure, only the "yellow" level of terrorist danger has been introduced in the region, which presupposes the strengthening of measures to protect the population and the work of security forces. Residents say that the fire of the Armed Forces has become a new daily routine for them - there is no fear; they just got used to it...”

On May 1, Ukrainian terrorists derailed a train with petroleum products in the Bryansk region. The drivers miraculously survived. At the same time, the support of the power line in the Leningrad region was also undermined – it was another Ukrainian sabotage case.

On May 13, Ukrainian saboteurs also allegedly penetrated the territory of Russia in the Bryansk region and shot down two Mi-8 helicopters and Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft in the sky. The circumstances of the tragedy are still being studied, but the most unpleasant fact is that the pilots died in their native sky.

The situation is also tense in the Kursk region - the region is under daily shelling by the Armed Forces. On May 16, an unexploded shell dropped by a drone was found near a gas station in Rylsk. The shell was filled with striking elements - steel discs...

According to Governor Roman Starovoyt, since the beginning of the military operation, about 400 residential buildings have been damaged by shelling from Ukraine in the Kursk region, as well as five schools, a kindergarten, and a hospital. Twenty-three of the damaged houses are multi-apartment houses.

We should note right away that the Russian media somehow did not dare to recall Prigozhin's "prophecies" and "facts" from the governors when the raid by Russian volunteers did happen on May 21-22. In the same way, the Kremlin and the authorities of the Belgorod region suddenly "forgot" about all the "alarm bells" in April-May, which were discussed from every corner.

Therefore, the May 21-22 raid fell into the propaganda canvas of the "Ukrainian threat", which the media themselves had been persistently promoting for several months. Now they had to choose between acknowledging the reality of such a threat and deliberately downplaying and ignoring it.

Initially, there was apparent confusion and the absence of a single line of interpretation of the crisis event. Without instructions, pro-government TV and Telegram channels focused their informational efforts on covering the failure in the Belgorod region from the traditional positions of "who is to blame?" and what to do?".

Since reporting awful news is always bordering on the risk of repression in Russian realities, even loyal media use the techniques of referring to "anonymous sources" and "eyewitnesses". Thus, if some news is banned, it is easy to dismiss everything as "unverified rumors".

So, already by May 22-23, Russians learned the following:

 "SMO fighter with the callsign "Osetyn" estimated the breakthrough into the Belgorod region of the Bandera sabotage groups Bof the Armed Forces of Ukraine... "The main thing is that everything is alright according to the papers and reports. It is also unclear how they passed in daylight. There have been no surprises, but maybe there will be after identifying traitors and hohols from our territory. There is nothing to be happy about; we are hitting our territory with artillery and aviation. It is not joyous. I hope that our aviators will scare off terrorist Ukrainians. There will be no more comments; I hope that everyone who crossed the border will stay here dead and not leave as if nothing had happened," the SMO fighter emotionally noted" (Tsargrad TV, 05/22/23);

"The raid in the Belgorod region, undertaken on May 22 by special units of the military intelligence of Ukraine and militants with Russian surnames serving the Kyiv regime, became an event of international scale. It was the goal of the strategists of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Western advisers — to create a sufficiently loud informational occasion to distract the attention of the Ukrainian and world public from its final defeat in Bakhmut. However, military experts unanimously declare that the Belgorod front most likely plays an auxiliary media role. A large-scale "counteroffensive" must be expected in another section of the SMO’s combat contact line" (Tsargrad TV, 05/22/23);

"The second question now raises the most questions: how did it happen that this group was even allowed to enter the territory of Russia? Why wasn't it detected on the approaches, and an air or artillery attack was not carried out? Because it turns out that the Russian army can, with stunning accuracy, cover the most important ammunition depot for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the West of Ukraine, it lets an entire column of armored vehicles into Russia right under its nose. Telegram channels said they knew about the accumulation of military equipment on the border. But nothing was done. It is obvious that the militants managed to achieve the main thing - to break the negativity about the loss of Bakhmut by temporarily seizing one or two villages in the Belgorod Region. What the militants of the RVC* (Russian Volunteer Corps) and FRL* (Freedom of Russia Legion) will spend is an acceptable price for a PR victory, which the authorities feed the people of Ukraine. Such incidents do not have strategic significance for the SMO’s course, but it is still damn unpleasant, - wrote the same "Fisherman"" (Tsargrad TV, 05/23/23);

"All-Russian State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company’s military correspondent Alexander Sladkov voiced uncomfortable facts about the Belgorod attack. They are based on informal military communication. "So, they weren't cut off?" - the journalist asked a key question. Even the day before, in the evening, a message linked to the fighters from the Belgorod region appeared in the "Archangel spetsnaza Z" Telegram channel, stating that "the enemy left the frontline". The Russian military is advancing towards the checkpoint on the border. The process is slow, as the nationalists can hide in private houses, and therefore there is no possibility to use heavy weapons" (Tsargrad TV, 05/23/23);

"The raid on the Belgorod region has been ongoing since early Monday morning. After the artillery shelling, a demonstrative tank approach was used just for the shooting, the video of which was then posted on social networks. And then saboteurs made a sortie. Sources reported that 39 bandits were killed, but there is no reliable information. However, it is known that the residents of Graivoron, Novostroevka, Gorkovskogo, Bezymeno, Mokraya Orlovka, Glotovo, Gora-Podola, Zamostya, and Spodaryusheno were actually evicted. Then the saboteurs occupied part of the Belgorod Region for some time. And maybe they are still occupying it now. What is still not talked about officially? For example, who conducted the raid? Traitors of Russia became a human shield for Ukrainian militants. Moreover, they went on a suicide campaign quite deliberately. By this time, at least four Russians who participated in the attack on the Belgorod region were identified. These are Denis Radonsky (Kirill Kanakhin) and Alexey Levkin. Both are wanted for participation in the attack on the Bryansk region in March. Another saboteur is ex-FSB officer Ilya Bogdanov, who fled to Ukraine in 2014. Ruslan Kaganets, a staff member of Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence, also took part in the attack on the Belgorod region yesterday. He was one of the coordinators. During today's briefing, the attention of the Russian president’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, was drawn to the fact that the construction of defense structures in the Belgorod region cost 10 billion (!) rubles. Peskov was asked whether it is possible to consider the attack as evidence of the complete failure of work on strengthening the border. In response, the official stated that the presidential administration could not rate the characteristics of protective structures. He then suggested contacting the Ministry of Defense of Russia. The latter remain silent on this matter" (Tsargrad TV, 05/23/23);

"The attack on the Belgorod region became possible because Russia's border currently has neither the strength nor the ability to protect itself in the way it was protected during the Soviet Union. Previously, there was a whole "Border System", part of the KGB. Now, it is the "Border Service". The difference between these two organizations is obvious. According to the "Alfa" veteran, the second point is that intelligence did not work very well, to put it mildly. It could not provide information that an attack was being prepared. Most importantly, we have already discussed that if we can not manage it alone, we still need to attract our citizens [to this kind of work]. I think that men in these [border] regions are capable of taking up arms and defending their families, - Sergey Goncharov said on the air of the "Tsargrad" program "We know"" (Tsargrad TV, 05/23/23).

The tone and direction of events coverage in the Belgorod region change dramatically in the afternoon when a message about the governor's cancellation of the "counter-terrorist operation regime" appears. Even though at 5 pm, there were messages about the preparation of new battles: "In his personal Telegram channel, Sladkov wrote that two more groups of Ukrainian saboteurs had been blocked on the territory of the Belgorod region. More and more of our forces are arriving in the area, and battles are going on. There are two more Ukrainian groups on the territory of Ukraine with the task of coming to help the first group. They will not have such a possibility.

We see the beginning of the "severe cleansing" of messages in the Russian information space, the purpose of which is to deny the importance of the events in the Belgorod Region. The main messages are data from the Ministry of Defense of Russia. The significance of the event from the status of "a component of the counteroffensive", which was claimed by the same "authoritative sources" a day ago, is reduced to a "terrorist attack" and psychological operation:

To divert attention from the causes and consequences of the raid, "news" about "miraculous" examples of saving civilians from "Ukrainian militants" in churches, about "unarmed people being shot", and about captured American equipment being replicated and spread.

"The passing day has sorted things out." The bitter lesson of the saboteurs’ raid on the Belgorod region must be taken into account. Partially, it has already been accounted for - dozens of militants were eliminated. Meanwhile, Kyiv authorities, allegedly retaliating against Russia for Bakhmut, have missed the most powerful blow and are now shyly silent...

The day before, it became known that the attack in the same Dnipropetrovsk region was combined. It is how our soldiers have not acted yet. The fact is that X-101 and X-22 cruise missile types, ballistic missiles, and Geran attack drones were used simultaneously. At least 16 explosions were recorded, after which a powerful fire immediately occurred at Ukrainian positions... The Russian military is striking enemy targets without harming the civilian population. The missiles' accuracy is considered very high, so it became easier to destroy Ukrainian bases. It is worth noting that the Ukrainian army often forms its warehouses with weapons and ammunition in high-rise buildings with civilians. However, immediately after the destruction of military points, Kyiv begins to accuse Moscow of the alleged "murder" of the civilian population" (Tsargrad TV, 05/24/23)

After all, the events in the Belgorod region led to the Kremlin's central thesis: defending Russia is possible only by seizing and destroying Ukraine. And for this, it is necessary to continue the "special operation". The Kremlin and its controlled media did not explain why conducting the instead of the promised protection of Russia led to the deterioration of its security, in particular, the hostilities in the Belgorod region. Still, it has simply switched the cause and effect of the crisis event.

Looking ahead, we note that the official narrative about the "stabilization" of the situation in the Belgorod region collapsed on May 31. Then, shelling of the Shebekinsky district and a new raid by Russian volunteers began.

Drone attack on the Moscow region

The May 30 drone attack on the outskirts of Moscow and near Putin's residence in Novo-Ogaryovo is interesting because Russian propaganda fell into the trap of its self-confidence.

During May 28-30, "news" was spread in the Russian information space, which was supposed to create a sense of confidence and conviction in the success of the attacks on Ukraine. As early as the morning of May 30, the Russian audience was delighted with reports of the "destruction of the American air defense system in Kyiv."

In just a few hours, a wave of uncontrolled and unfiltered reports about explosions as a result of drone attacks in the Moscow suburbs has risen in the Russian information space:

This time, the central government's reaction was not slow: the Telegram channel of the mayor of Moscow, Sobyanin, urged "to trust only official sources and not to spread unverified information."

In other words, the Russian authorities tried to organize an "information blockade" around the unexpected attack. However, the temptation to catch the hype at an extraordinary event was too strong. Several propaganda players seized the opportunity to state, promote, and sell their anti-crisis narrative to the authorities.

In general, we can single out the following messages that circulated in the first hours after the attack:

"Will this become a turning point in understanding the situation by the Rublevka ethnos? So many more obvious things do not require confirmation by facts - any phenomenon, especially one as fundamental as war, has its own clear logic. It can be detected by including what has already happened and is happening, and what will most likely and even almost certainly happen in the future, Dugin noted. — It is imperative to approach the war systematically, not sporadically. In the previous stages, this was not enough; we lacked a verified and responsible systemic approach. After all, do not panic. War is war, he added. - We have been in the different elements of war for a long time - there is only a combat line and homefront. Rublevka is no longer an inviolable island of absolute prosperity," he emphasized. According to Dugin, after today's drone attack on Moscow, a new psychologically important stage of the SMO has begun."

The versions’ bacchanalia was quickly stopped, and the Ministry of Defense of Russia was once again entrusted with producing the official version of events. This version did not mention "dozens of drones" or panic. There was only mention of "effective air defense work":

"In the morning, the Kiev regime [transliteration which the original text uses] launched a terrorist attack with unmanned aerial vehicles on objects in Moscow, the Ministry of Defense of Russia confirmed the information.

The military department also clarified that the enemy used eight unmanned aerial vehicles in the attack.

"All the enemy's drones have been defeated," the Ministry of Defense confirmed, clarifying what they were doing against the enemy's UAVs.

Three kamikaze drones were suppressed using electronic warfare. Drones lost control and deviated from their intended targets.

The Moscow region was protected by "Pantsir" [missile system]. Five of the attacking UAVs were shot down by the Pantsir-S anti-aircraft missile-gun complex in the Moscow region.

However, the ultra-racists (Tsargrad TV) did not calm down and continued to promote the topic of "people's war", "Ukraine is a terrorist", and "punishing sword" in response to the attack. They got so excited that they almost described the accurate scale of the attack. Within a few hours, they corrected themselves and gave the floor to "military experts", who denied the threat and denied the need to declare an air alert during such incidents.

As a result, the Russian authorities decided to combine both narratives - military specialists and ultra-nationalists. Top-level speakers, including Putin, emphasize the "effectiveness" of Russian weapons and defensive advantages while cautiously acknowledging that there is always room for improvement. They add hints about unconventional ways of revenge, for example, the possibility of using nuclear weapons.

In the meantime, Putin's followers trumpet to the world about "martial law" and threaten Ukraine and the USA with "terrible consequences".

Vladimir Putin, 05/30/2023:

"First of all, the Moscow air defense system worked properly and satisfactorily, although there is work to be done. We faced the same problems at the Khmeimim airfield in Syria, and the territory of our Khmeimim airbase itself is simply not comparable to Moscow, a vast European metropolis. But in general, it is clear what needs to be done to strengthen the air defense of the capital, and we will do it.

I'm more worried about the attempt to provoke a retaliatory reaction from Russia. It is designed for this: they provoke us to mirror actions. We will see what to do with it.

But the citizens of Ukraine, who, of course, do not have freedom of speech now since total terror against the civilian population has been unleashed in Ukraine, should still know what the current leadership of this country is pushing for and simply understand that there are still other threats related to, for example, attempts to disorganize the work at the Zaporozhye [transliteration which the original text uses] nuclear power plant or to use some "dirty" devices related to the nuclear industry. We have already discussed this many times: we know what they have in mind."

Tsargrad TV, 05/30/23:

"Vice-speaker of the State Duma Pyotr Tolstoy told what measures should be taken so that there are no more attacks on Moscow. Mobilization of all forces and means is necessary, he emphasized. Tolstoy reminded that the governor of the Belgorod region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, recently said that to stop the region's shelling, we need to join the Kharkov region [transliteration which the original text uses] to the Belgorod region. Moreover, to stop the shelling of Moscow, it is necessary to occupy Kiev [transliteration which the original text uses], added Tolstoy. He also emphasized that the mobilization of all forces and means is essential, as well as the unity of the Russian society in understanding the common goal. Russia only needs a victory, said Tolstoy.

Ramzan Kadyrov,05/30/23:

"Kiev's [transliteration which the original text uses] Nazi leadership makes decisions that leave no doubt that they use terrorist methods and, therefore, are recognized as terrorists. We must use this appropriate term and such terms as"Nazi" and "Satanist". In my opinion, it is necessary to declare martial law in Russia to use all the combat resources intended to wipe out this entire terrorist cell without resorting to the wording "Ukrainian military". There are no military or politicians in Ukraine - only terrorists. States always hang the label of a terrorist on anyone without trial and investigation, and here we have clear evidence of terrorist activity. We need to strike the places of concentration of these terrorist leaders until no single living spot is left so that the rest would not even think badly of Russia. Response measures to such attempts to attack should not be harsh - they should be brutal. We are protecting our citizens, and there is no need to play around and show off. European countries must also consider whom they sponsor and under what conditions they provide weapons. For example, it will become evident when Russia "comes" to Germany or Poland. Then, there will be nothing to answer with - all the weapons have been wasted on Ukraine."

Photo: Getty Images