The war in Ukraine has far-reaching implications for the entire world.
As German philosopher and sociologist Theodor Adorno once stated, ‘to write poetry after Auschwitz is barbaric’. Just as poetry seems impossible after such atrocities, the international community must not turn a blind eye to the crimes committed during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Cities and villages such as Bucha, Irpen, and Mariupol have suffered greatly under Russian occupation. While Western countries have provided aid to Ukraine and its army, it is crucial to understand why they must continue to do so. Ukraine’s significance in international politics cannot be understated and it is in the best interest of politicians to work towards ending the war as soon as possible and in favour of Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine is having a significant impact on the global economy. The International Monetary Fund predicts a further slowdown in global economic growth in 2022 and 2023. According to the institution, this recession will affect 143 countries, which account for 86 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product. The IMF’s head, Kristalina Georgieva, warns that ‘the situation will vary from country to country: from catastrophic economic losses in Ukraine and a serious recession in Russia to other countries facing the consequences of the war through commodity, trade and financial channels’. The longer the war in Ukraine lasts, the worse the financial situation in different countries will become.
Historian and Professor of Yale University, Timothy Snyder, has outlined why Ukraine’s victory in the ongoing conflict holds immense importance not only in an economic sense but also in the realm of politics. According to Snyder, Ukraine’s triumph is the only viable path towards peace as a Russian victory would only fuel further aggression. He asserts that ‘Ukraine’s capitulation will mean the continuation of Russian atrocities on Ukrainian land’. Snyder believes that the only way the war can come to a close is through Ukraine’s victory on the battlefield, which will make Russia understand that negotiations are in its best interest. Furthermore, Snyder posits that Ukraine’s victory is crucial for the security of neighbouring countries such as Poland, Romania, and Moldova, which may become targets of Russian aggression.
Snyder even argues that Ukraine’s victory is important for the future of Russia. ‘For all of us who care about the security of Europe and the world, it is very important which Russia we will live near for the next decades. In order for Russia to become, let’s say, a normal country, where the interests of Russians are important for the leadership, it is very important that Russia is defeated in this war. It is very important that Russians stop perceiving international politics as a gathering of the lands based on completely false myths,’ the professor said.
The Russian-Ukrainian war is the largest in Europe since 1945, and as such, political analyst Yevhen Mahda asserts that no major world player can afford to remain neutral and stand idly by. Let’s try to explain in more detail why the war in Ukraine is a problem for Western countries and why they are helping us to win.
Why is Ukraine important for the UK?
Great Britain supports Ukraine in the Russian-Ukrainian war. The British Prime Minister is often referred to jokingly as ‘Ukrainian Johnson’ by Ukrainians due to his Twitter handle (JohnsonUK). He receives letters from Ukrainian children affected by the war, who express their desire for peace and gratitude towards Britain for its support. But why does the UK help Ukraine? Historian and international journalist Yehor Brailian explains that after the UK’s exit from the European Union in 2021, the country has been pursuing a new foreign policy focused on maintaining British influence through bilateral free trade agreements. Brailian states that ‘In the Ukrainian case, the strengthening of Britain took place after a tougher stance towards Russia, after the attempted poisoning of the Skripal family in March 2018.’ He adds that London began to study in more detail the Kremlin’s interference in the internal affairs of other countries, and began to talk more about the mistakes of Western policy towards Russia in 2014. Therefore, the strengthening of cooperation between Britain and Ukraine serves the protection of human rights and democracy. According to the expert, the new British foreign policy doctrine states that the country will help the countries of the EU Eastern Partnership, especially Ukraine, in strengthening their armed forces and supporting economic reforms.
How does the war in Ukraine affect the UK?
Yehor Brailian states that the scandal surrounding Johnson and his subordinates partying during the coronavirus epidemic is still a major issue in the country. According to the expert, the British cannot forgive the fact that the Prime Minister was partying at a time when some people could not even attend the funeral of their loved ones. As a result, since January, Johnson has been focused on talking more about strengthening assistance to Ukraine rather than the possibility of his resignation.
According to Brailian, in terms of economic impact, despite the coronavirus and the Russian-Ukrainian war, bilateral trade between Ukraine and Britain has improved since a free trade zone was established on January 1, 2021. Additionally, London removed some more customs duties for Ukrainian goods after February 24, 2022.
So why did Britain start helping Ukraine?
As Yehor Brylian explains, the United Kingdom has been consistently supporting Ukraine’s aspirations for EU and NATO membership long before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. ‘Although before 2016 it was not in the framework of bilateral relations, but rather in the context of these supranational associations of states. Now the British military assistance consists in providing weapons for defence, there is an exchange of intelligence data,’ the expert says, ‘British politicians are rethinking Ukraine, reopening it to the world. This is where the potential of public diplomacy comes in, as many British citizens in social networks actively support Ukraine because they see where their taxes are going — in defence of democracy. However, there is another group of people who want the British Prime Minister, Johnson, to resign’.
Yehor Brailian adds that the UK has shown that it is willing to take radical steps in its support for Ukraine. ‘For example, London imposed sanctions against Putin’s inner circle, as well as Patriarch Kirill, which was not agreed upon by the European Union due to pressure from Hungary. It is worth talking about the economic losses associated with sanctions against Moscow. However, these losses are compounded by the problems after Brexit and the economic crisis that the country is facing after leaving the European Union,’ the expert says, ‘Britain, with the support of the Baltic States and Poland, understands that deterring Russia and helping Ukraine to defeat the aggressor will mean the triumph of democracy over autocracy. It is clear that the Cold War did not end thirty years ago, and defeating Kremlin neo-imperialism is crucial now.’
What about the US? The help they provide is also very valuable.
Candidate of Historical Sciences Makar Taran believes that the primary reason for the United States support of Ukraine is an instinct of self-preservation. Taran states that ‘these horrors that Europe and the United States have seen are just the beginning. I don’t want to be an evil prophet to say that if Putin is not stopped, even more horrors will happen.’ He argues that the destruction that Russia is bringing with it can spread to other countries and that they understand that they have to react in some way. The expert notes that the level of empathy for Ukraine varies greatly among societies and governments of different countries. This empathy is based on the history of relations and understanding of a particular country. For example, the American middle class feels that by helping Ukraine and Ukrainians, they can show their humanity. Americans often donate to those in need, and this tendency is reflected in their support for Ukrainians.
So why does the American government support Ukraine?
According to Makar Taran, there are many factors that contribute to the United States and EU governments’ support for Ukraine, but the most obvious one is the economic challenges that the war brings. Taran emphasises that economic crises can often ‘demolish’ governments. He says that ‘they are forced to help Ukraine and at the same time patch holes in their budgets, and energy prices put governments in an uncomfortable situation. Therefore, many governments, key European players, will seek to pacify this conflict until the last moment and will strive to make it move to a more peaceful phase even at the cost of Ukrainian concessions. Because these governments have a duty to their society, and to their voters. And foreign policy is not their priority. The danger is that if the war drags on, we will have what Putin partly hopes for — governments will become more compliant.’ On the other hand, the United States is relatively self-sufficient in terms of energy, so Ukraine has high hopes for this country in terms of support.
The US authorities have stated that they will accept any decision made by Ukraine and will support it. Makar Taran explains that ‘It is geostrategically important for the U.S. to exhaust Russia and take it out of the game’. He adds that ‘the U.S. government’s primary focus is on China, which is expanding its military capabilities. Therefore, pushing Russia back, as it is happening now, is beneficial for Washington, as it will make it easier to influence China. In simpler terms, China will not have a rear like Russia.’
Makar Taran adds that there is currently much discussion in the United States about Ukraine making concessions, but the specifics of these concessions have not yet been clarified. He explains that ‘the state leadership understands quite well that concessions to the Kremlin will mean a Russian victory. American strategists also understand that it is necessary to continue this war until Russia is either defeated or forced into an unfavourable agreement.’
What about other EU countries?
Sergiy Gerasymchuk, an expert from the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council argues that from an international politics perspective, it is not so much about Ukraine but about the fact that the Ukrainian case has become a test for the viability of the rules-based international order. He says that ‘In Ukraine, Moscow neglected all the rules and norms of international law, and violated all possible bilateral and multilateral agreements. Putin explains this by ‘Russian sovereignty’, but in fact, it is about Russian arbitrariness. And if this goes unpunished for Moscow, it will create an extremely dangerous precedent, and will be a step into the abyss of international chaos.’ Gerasymchuk goes on to explain that if Moscow is not held accountable, it will open the door for others to rely on the law of force instead of the rule of law. The US and the EU understand that if the fire is not extinguished in Ukraine, it will spread everywhere, so they are trying their best to keep the international system in at least a state of relative stability.
Gerasymchuk adds that war, as cynical as it may sound, has always had both positive and negative consequences for the world. He states that ‘people are dying in Ukraine, the EU shudders from the influx of war refugees, the collapse of logistics chains weakens the already slowed down economy. Of course, this affects the pocket of ordinary voters in Europe and the United States. And, of course, governments have to look for explanations for why an ordinary German citizen or a British peasant should pay for the war in faraway Ukraine, instead of simply ending it.’
In Gerasymchuk’s opinion, this is a challenging task for Western governments: to show their voters that the cost of maintaining world order is high, but its preservation offers at least some chance for development, while the chaos Moscow wants to bring about leads to the ‘dark ages.’ He emphasises that ‘it is crucial for Ukraine and its Western partners to explain to the public that even concessions to the Kremlin will not lead to lower prices. Moscow intends to recoup losses from the sanctions and whether Western voters want it or not, they will have to pay. He states that the choice they have now is the choice to pay for a chance for growth or for a “ticket” to decline.’
Why is it advantageous for Ukraine’s allies to end the war soon?
Political analyst and director of the Institute of World Policy, Yevhen Mahda, says that Ukraine is important in terms of international politics for a number of reasons. Not only because it is the largest country in Europe. ‘For the West, it is an obvious and real alternative to Russia, as we have all seen. Not another Russia, but a country that is able to resist Russia,’ the expert explains. ‘Yes, with Western assistance, but primarily due to its own influence, its own citizens and their desire to preserve their independence, Ukraine is a promising member of the EU and NATO. The question is not even when we will join, but that without Ukraine both the EU and NATO will be, in my opinion, incomplete integration projects. Ukraine is a European, and maybe even a global Cinderella, who expects not so much a kiss from Prince Charming as a decent treatment.’
According to Yevhen Mahda, Ukraine’s experience shows that the great war in Europe affects the whole world because it is a crisis of logistics, a crisis of food supply, inability to maintain many areas of business and economy at the proper level. ‘We must understand that Ukraine has become a victim of Russian aggression for a number of global reasons and because it has remained a country in transition for 30 years. That is, if we had carried out successful reforms earlier, our ability to resist, I suppose, would have been higher. Although it is already much higher than the West expected,’ the expert says and adds that each country develops its attitude toward Ukraine according to its national interests. ‘This should not be forgotten. And even our neighbours have different attitudes: Poland has one, and Hungary has another. I would even say that within the Visegrád Group, Ukraine has become a kind of a thorn in the side. Today, there are no binding agreements on assistance to Ukraine. And, in fact, providing this assistance is a personal matter for each state involved in it. In helping Ukraine, the United Kingdom pursues, among other things, its own ambitions. On the other hand, Germany and France have strong enough positions of politicians and influential people who believe that Russia should not be insulted and discriminated against,’ explains Yevhen Mahda.
The political scientist adds that among the reasons why other countries want the war in Ukraine to end as soon as possible is the opportunity to participate in the restoration of Ukraine because the scope of work here is huge. ‘We have suffered significant damage. It is clear that Ukraine will not cope with it alone, and the world will have to help. We observe competition between those who can and want to help Ukraine,’ says Yevhen Mahda. ‘This is a somewhat cynical and pragmatic approach. But from an idealistic point of view, of course, world leaders must not and should not be interested in the rule of the strong, the law of the jungle.’
Sergiy Gerasymchuk emphasises that in case of ineffective strategic communications and prolonged war, politicians in Western countries may face misunderstanding from their own voters, whose quality of life may suffer. ‘A lot will depend on us. If Ukraine proves that everything was not in vain, and Ukrainians defend the rules-based world order in battle and do not allow to neglect universal human values, then European and American politicians will have something to counter the accusations of their opponents. Moreover, these opponents can also become friends of Ukraine. In this context, I would like to hope for the best,’ he said.
According to the expert, the war, unexpectedly for the Kremlin, revived European solidarity, opened Ukraine to the world, and finally convinced it that we are not Russia. In its turn, Ukraine, according to him, has demonstrated that it is resilient and ready to fight for its sovereignty. ‘This proved not only the fighting qualities of Ukrainians but also that the years of reforms were not wasted and Ukrainian institutions, despite Moscow’s dreams, have resisted,’ said Sergiy Gerasymchuk.
Photo: dpa/berlin.de
