"The Donetsk Blunder and the Miscalculations of the Kursk Gamble." How Russian Propaganda Rhetoric on the Hostilities in Ukraine Has Changed

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Detector Media analyzed the changes in propaganda about the fighting in Ukraine in Russian, Ukrainian, Polish, and Moldovan pro-Russian Telegram channels between May and December 2024.

Since the end of April 2024, the Detector Media team has been monitoring a pool of propaganda Telegram channels, analyzing messages about the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Russian aggression against Ukraine. During this time, there were several spikes in messages from enemy propagandists, especially around the First Global Peace Summit in June. Another surge stemmed from pro-Russian Telegram channels denying Russia’s attack on the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in Kyiv on July 8. There were also notable spikes in August 2024, when the Ukrainian military launched an operation in the Kursk region, and the Ukrainian armed forces received F-16 jets.

Between May 1 and December 8, we examined 12.9 thousand unique messages on Ukrainian, Polish, and Moldovan pro-Russian Telegram channels. In addition, we analyzed a number of Russian propaganda Telegram channels. The sample of Telegram channels we regularly monitored was formed based on previous studies of Russian propaganda on Telegram. These included research about the Russian media influence on Ukraine’s neighboring states, as well as on manipulative messages in the Moldovan and Polish infosphere. The analysis aimed to track changes in the narratives and propaganda rhetoric surrounding Russian aggression in Ukraine and how they are presented to audiences in Ukraine, Russia, and Ukraine’s neighboring countries.

In particular, the keywords included official names, abbreviations, and colloquialisms used to refer to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. For Telegram channels from Poland and Moldova, publications were also selected by name and through offensive or slang terms for Ukraine and Ukrainians.

Structure of publications about the Ukrainian Defense Forces and Russian aggression against Ukraine in a sample of Telegram channels. From June 1 to December 8, 2024. Source: Detector Media

Total number of publications: 12.899

Ukrainian pro-Russian 2.999     

Russian 4.940

Polish and Moldovan 4.960

We tried to work with a constant sample of propaganda Telegram channels. One of the analyzed Telegram channels, “На Zzzzzападном фронте без перемен” (best translated as “No Changes on the Western Front”), is not a classic propaganda channel. Its author, Russian opposition journalist Ivan Filippov, summarizes and criticizes the messages of Russian propagandists on war-related issues. The inclusion of this Telegram channel in the sample is justified by its ability to aggregate emblematic messages from propaganda Telegram channels, which, if included individually in the sample for continuous monitoring, would have overloaded the sample with repetitive messages.

Despite our attempts to monitor a regular list of Telegram channels, the set of channels has changed over the months of monitoring. The reasons for this include the cessation of posting, death, or legal problems in Russia of the propagandists who run the Telegram channels. In particular, at the end of July, the author of the “Grey Zone” Telegram channel, Nikita Fedyanin, was killed in Mali. Then, in October, the author of the “Thirteenth” Telegram channel, Yegor Guzenko, was arrested in Russia. In such cases, we replaced the Telegram channels with other channels that spread disinformation in the relevant segments. Between November and December 2024, we worked with messages from 14 Telegram channels.

Among Russian Telegram channels, we have analyzed the following: “WarGonzo”, “Voenkor Kotenok”, “Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны” (“Operation Z: Russian Spring War Correspondents”), “Два Майора” (“Two Majors”), “Readovka”, “Fighterbomber”, “Воевода вещает” (“The Voevoda broadcasts”), “Alex Parker Returns”, “ДШРГ Русич” (“DShRG Rusich”) and “На Zzzzzападном фронте без перемен” (“No Changes on the Western Front”.) The segment of Russian Telegram channels, also known as the “Z-segment,” has become an alternative source of information for Russian audiences, offering a “different perspective” on the fighting than that provided by the official media. These channels, often run by propagandists and propaganda “war correspondents” (the so-called voienkors), disseminate information that may contradict the official Kremlin line. The Kremlin allows the authors of these channels limited freedom of speech, giving them space to express opinions for which civil society activists in Russia are often prosecuted under articles banning “discrediting the army.”

Throughout the period, we worked with messages in two Telegram channels targeting Russian-speaking audiences in Moldova: “Gagauz Republic” (34.4 thousand subscribers) and “Pridnestrovets” (73.4 thousand subscribers). From May to August, the sample also included the Telegram channel “Sputnik Moldova” (30.7 thousand subscribers). All these channels are in Russian.

The list of analyzed Telegram channels also included two Polish-language channels: "Niezależny dziennik polityczny" and "Układ Warszawski". All Telegram channels in this segment mainly provide news commentary and manipulate the current international news. In addition to accents in the interpretation of the news, which is similar to that of Russian propagandists, the authors of the messages in the Telegram channels aimed at both Polish-speaking and Moldovan audiences refer to the Russian military as "ours." This can be taken as evidence that these Telegram channels are part of Russian propaganda.

Among the Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channels we worked with are the following: “ЗеРада” (“ZeRada”), “Легитимный” (“The Legitimate”) and “цибуля 🇺🇦” (“The Onion 🇺🇦”), as well as the channel “Шептун🇺🇦Украина Война” (“The Whisperer🇺🇦Ukraine War”).

With all the replacements between May and December, the total list of analyzed sources in different segments amounted to 20 Telegram channels. The propagandists focused mainly on Ukrainian domestic politics, tried to stir up divisions in Ukrainian society, and criticized the actions of Ukraine's military and political leadership. The authors of publications in these Telegram channels adapted their interpretations of events to the established propaganda theses. For the sake of simplicity, we compare the emphasis and changes in the Telegram channels’ messages about the most frequently mentioned places (locations, toponyms), individuals, and organizations in Ukraine, Russia, and beyond.

The Kursk region of Russia became the most frequently mentioned territory in the analyzed data set. From May to early December alone, it was mentioned 2,300 times. Two-thirds of these mentions came from Russian propaganda Telegram channels. In them, the Kursk region was mentioned throughout the entire analysis period. Since May and for most of the summer, the only type of messages were reports of hits on military facilities in the region or missiles fired at Ukraine falling there. Mentions of the Kursk region peaked after August 6, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a military operation in Russia. 

Ukraine's accusations of shelling Russia’s Bryansk region from May to early August appeared weekly on Telegram channels in all analyzed segments.

Moscow is rarely mentioned in the context of hostilities, except for the coverage of attacks on the Russian capital region by Ukrainian long-range drones. More often, Moscow serves as a rhetorical reference to the Russian authorities.

Key locations most frequently mentioned in the publications analyzed from May to December 8, 2024. Source: Detector Media

In Russian Telegram channels, the Russian regions are mostly mentioned in connection with hostilities affecting the territories of the aggressor state. Russian pro-war Telegram bloggers predominantly focus on military operations and attacks in the Kursk and Belgorod regions. The so-called war correspondents sometimes use the fighting in these regions as an argument to criticize the generals of the Russian army. At the same time, criticism of the generals, with a few exceptions, does not extend to the military and political decisions of Russia's leader, Vladimir Putin.

Russian Telegram channels initially downplayed the consequences and significance of the August offensive of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Kursk region but later stopped trying to hide the scale of the Ukrainian operation.

“According to official reports, at first, 300 insurgents entered the Kursk region, yet the next day, the head of the General Staff announced a different number to the president – 1000. According to the report, by yesterday, almost 700 had been killed, and today another 280. So what, there are only a few left? 50 people?” This ironic comment in a Z-segment blog with over 500 thousand subscribers shows a post typical for August.

Similar messages were also spread in Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channels, citing information from the Russian Ministry of Defense. On August 6, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that its “troops reinforcing the border are, together with border troops, repulsing attacks. Reserves are moving to the line of contact.”

Similarly, before the Ukrainian military operation in Russia, the Kursk region was barely mentioned in Ukrainian, Moldovan, and Polish Telegram channels. The only exception until August 6 was a May 29 post on a Telegram channel with 451,000 subscribers that a Qaem-5 guided bomb supplied to Russia by Iran had fallen in Kursk.

Beginning on August 6, Telegram channels spreading Russian propaganda to Ukrainians first concealed and then downplayed the results of the military operation of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. Before noon on August 6, they wrote that the hostilities on the border with the Kursk region were only "indirect," and "there was no question of crossing the border, let alone seizing any of Russia's populated areas." The propagandists claimed that the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and its head, Kyrylo Budanov, were responsible for the operation.

On the last day of August, a Telegram channel with 135,000 subscribers reported that the Main Directorate of Intelligence had nothing to do with the fighting in the Kursk region:

“The Kursk gamble is not a military operation, but a showdown between the chief of the Armed Forces, Syrskyi, and the chief intelligence officer, Budanov... According to sources, Syrskyi, who has a certain rivalry with Budanov, wanted his moment of glory if the operation was successful.”

In the first days of the military operation in Kursk, propagandists running Telegram channels aimed at Ukrainians spread doubts about the expediency of the military action in the Kursk region. They argued that involving the Ukrainian military in combat operations there would not distract Russia from its offensive in the Donetsk region.

“Putin is skillfully turning Zelenskyy’s Kursk gamble into a tripwire for Ukraine... While the attention of the whole world is set on our invasion of Russian territories, the Russians have managed to make significant progress in the Donbas. Toretsk is in immediate danger of falling. A similar prospect looms for Pokrovsk,” a Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channel with one million subscribers wrote on August 26.

In early September, the same Telegram channel continued to ratchet up the pressure:

“The Donetsk blunder, caused by the miscalculations of the Kursk gamble, threatens to collapse the eastern front. That is why the Ukrainian military is already preparing to defend the Dnipro... The situation on the eastern front is deteriorating, the Russian army is advancing faster than in 2022.”

At the beginning of the operation in the Kursk region, Polish and Moldovan propaganda Telegram channels spread Russian propaganda theses. In particular, they disseminated messages from Russian war correspondents about the “Ukrainian TikTok offensive” to their audiences. The analyzed Polish channels also reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked the Kursk region “without a clear strategic goal.” At the same time, foreign pro-Russian sources reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region were allegedly “killing civilians, looting, etc.” To prove this, they even provided various videos or photos of “crimes committed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” For example, one of the videos circulated showed Ukrainian forces using a Stryker armored fighting vehicle near Sudzha to allegedly shoot at a car carrying civilians. However, there is no real evidence that such an incident actually occurred.

Polish pro-Russian Telegram channels wrote about Ukraine’s losses in the Kursk region, citing the Russian Ministry of Defence, adding that “even if you divide these figures by two, it's still not bad”. Later, they scoffed, saying that the statistics of Russia's Ministry of Defense were very interesting: on August 8, they reported the destruction of 22 Ukrainian APCs in 24 hours. The next day it was 27, and the day after, it was 32. They add: “If we have identified the right pattern, there should be 37 armored vehicles destroyed today.” There were also reports of “foreign mercenaries, Polish in particular” taking part in the operation in the Kursk region. About 30 people speaking Polish were allegedly seen in the border areas. At the same time, the channels claimed that the total number of foreign mercenaries was “much higher.”

On October 26, Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channels updated their coverage of the hostilities in the Kursk region with news about Russians involving North Korean troops in the fighting.

After Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, propagandists turned to his pre-election promise to reach a peace agreement and stop fighting in Ukraine. A Telegram channel with 451,000 subscribers wrote about the Kursk region, claiming that the Ukrainian military was withdrawing. Now, the task of the Ukrainian authorities was “to ‘sell’ the surrender of the Kursk Oblast to make it look like their first step toward peace.” At the same time, a Telegram channel with 60,000 subscribers reported that one of the problems of the Ukrainian military in the Kursk region is the evacuation of the wounded. Another Telegram channel with one million subscribers said that “the Russians decided to get ahead of the Office of the President and take back their territories themselves as a way to deprive Bankova of any room for maneuver. Yermak planned to return the Kursk territories to the Russians as a ‘goodwill gesture’ to start negotiations”.

In the analyzed Polish propaganda Telegram channels, a similar thesis regarding the problems with the evacuation of the wounded circulated: “The Armed Forces of Ukraine, while retreating in the Kursk region, left a wounded soldier under a bed in a residential house” the propagandists wrote, publishing a video from the Russian media without providing a link or indicating the source of the information. A common feature of the analyzed Polish channels during the operation in the Kursk region was the republication of the most brutal videos of Russian war correspondents without any censorship, probably to rally the audience seeking this type of content and to dehumanize the Ukrainian military.

At the end of December 2024, the primary manipulative thesis regarding the Russian territories was how the topic of hostilities in the Kursk region could be used in possible peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Since August, the opinions of the propagandists in all the analyzed segments have evolved from the assumption that the purpose of the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian territory was to gain leverage for the exchange of territories during possible peace talks to the claim that the presence of the Ukrainian military in the Kursk region, on the contrary, makes any negotiations impossible and will lead to Ukraine's international isolation.

The locations in Ukraine mentioned in the analyzed Telegram channels fall into two main categories. The first includes the so-called "decision centers" and places far from the line of contact. These places are mentioned mainly in connection with political decisions and missile attacks and as symbols of Ukrainian statehood.

The second category of places in Ukraine refers to the battlefields and temporarily occupied territories (TOT), which include Kurakhove, the Donbas, Crimea, the Kharkiv and Sumy regions, Vuhledar, Selydove, Vovchansk, Donetsk, and parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions occupied since 2014. These territories are usually mentioned in the context of actual warfare and Russian occupation and used in propaganda narratives to accuse the Ukrainian side of war crimes or to justify Russian aggression.

In Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channels, Kyiv appears in two guises. The first is the political center of Ukraine and a sobriquet for the state authorities. In this case, Kyiv is described with the same epithets and labels used in Russian propaganda to describe the entire Ukrainian state: corrupt, dependent on the West, "Nazi," "unwilling to make peace," unmindful of its people, etc. Here's an example of such a message from a Telegram channel with 135,000 subscribers from September 10, 2024:

“The Anglo-Saxon assault force is preparing to land in Kyiv. This week, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy and U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will arrive in Kyiv. According to the American Michael McCaul of the House of Representatives, they will deliver to Zelenskyy a permit to use long-range ATACMS missiles to strike deep into Russia."

In the second incarnation, Kyiv is a place that Russians are attacking, where “Nazis” are “erasing the memory of Russian culture” or as an object of desire for Russians or Westerners.

“Yes, today's Kyiv and Tchaikovsky are incompatible concepts!” a Telegram channel with 135,000 subscribers wrote on May 5.

Odesa and the other Ukrainian regional centers relatively far from the front line, listed among the most mentioned, appear in contexts similar to Kyiv: as places that Russia attacks, considers "its own," and wants to conquer – or justifies its military aggression against Ukraine through events taking place in these cities.

“The war in Ukraine is a consequence, and the cause lies much earlier. One of the reasons for the beginning of the conflict is the tragedy of May 2 in Odesa, the first time the authorities (with the tacit consent of the West, which pretended that nothing had happened) carried out a demonstrative action of intimidation against the ‘inconvenient,’ which resulted in the death of civilians. The authorities deliberately instigated provocations that led to clashes and tragedy,” wrote a Telegram channel with one million subscribers on May 2, the anniversary of the fire in the Odesa Trade Union building that claimed 48 lives.

Or, as written on July 5 in a Telegram channel with 60 thousand subscribers:

“Every day, behind the scenes, the future of Odesa and Kharkiv – which together generate 10% of Ukraine's GDP – is being discussed more actively. Politicians and big business are realizing that Odesa and Kharkiv have failed to integrate into post-Maidan Ukraine. Meanwhile, the locals themselves feel caught between two fires: they are discussing the specifics of immigration in case repressive Ukrainization intensifies or, on the contrary, Russian occupation takes place."

Just as in the Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channels, Russian propaganda channels use Kyiv as a stand-in for the Ukrainian political authorities or simply as a synonym for the concept of the "Ukrainian state." In this sense, a share of references to Kyiv serves to accuse Ukraine of war crimes and to shift responsibility for the war.

“Kyiv committed a terrorist air raid,” “Kyiv hates its own people,” and “Kyiv neo-Nazis want to take back the Donbas” – such phrases appear in each of the analyzed propaganda channels. In addition to the “Kyiv neo-Nazis,” the phrase “the Kyiv regime” has been a constant in describing the central Ukrainian government since March 2014. For example, it was “the Kyiv regime that brutally killed … Russian people in the Trade Union building in Odesa.”

Unlike Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channels, Russian channels mention Kyiv as the Ukrainian capital more often, along with the names of other cities, such as Odesa and Kharkiv. In most cases, the names of Ukrainian cities further from the front line appear in the propagandists' reports on missile and drone strikes. Dry reports on the number of strikes are published almost daily, accompanied by gloating comments:

“Two mighty columns of smoke are rising over the Kyivskyi district of Odesa. The Russian army properly congratulated the Ukrainian armed forces on Spring and Labor Day. Presumably, the missiles hit warehouses,” wrote a Russian Telegram channel with almost 3 million subscribers.

In Russian Telegram channels, Odesa, Kharkiv, and Kyiv are often referred to as "Russian cities occupied by neo-Nazis." Here, the local population is mainly suffering from the actions of their own governments. In particular, Ukrainian cities appear in messages about the politics of historical memory, the monument demolition, and the renaming of streets.

The names of Ukrainian cities also appear in Russian propagandists' messages about mobilization and the alleged “partisan struggle against the neo-Nazi regime and the TCC.” Last year, regular reports of car arson appeared, presenting these not as the actions of teenagers recruited for money but as "grassroots resistance."

Most of the messages in the analyzed Polish channels that did not refer to locations on the front line aimed at discrediting the mobilization process in Ukraine. One of the channels even created specific hashtags (#ukraińskiej_mobilizacji and #do_ostatniego_Ukraińca), which literally repeated Russian propaganda narratives about the "war of the West against Russia to the last Ukrainian." During the monitoring period, almost every day, this channel published three to five articles devoted to the "horrors of mobilization in Ukraine."

The temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine are referred to as Russian in Ukrainian, Moldovan, and Polish pro-Russian Telegram channels. This is evidence that Russians run these anonymous channels. Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk were presented as Russian dozens of times in the analyzed Telegram channels. This was especially the case after Ukraine received the U.S. permission to attack Russian territory with American long-range weapons. In November 2024, propagandists wrote that "Ukraine has long been attacking Russian territory with Western weapons," referring to the territories occupied since 2014.

The Russians are also exploiting these territories to accuse Ukraine of crimes and justify military aggression.

“A massive missile attack on Luhansk by the Armed Forces of Ukraine using Western ATACMS missiles. 6-8 missiles were fired. There are dead, among them children... One of the reasons for the tragedy was the air defense system, which shot down the missiles over the city. The Ukrainian armed forces also have this problem. It's just that the Ukrainian government is constantly lying to its people that it was the Russians who deliberately hit residential buildings and so on, treating people like idiots and sheep,” a Ukrainian propaganda Telegram channel with one million subscribers wrote on June 7.

Places where active hostilities took place or are taking place from May to December, such as Vovchansk, Vuhledar, Kurakhove, Selydove, or the Donbas as a collective name for these territories, are used by the authors of Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channels to illustrate the alleged “inevitable victory" of Russia. Typically, the authors of the posts retell news from the official press services of the Ukrainian and Russian military formations or rehash the Russian war correspondents' publications about the situation on the front. When they don't, they use the sites of hostilities to accuse Ukraine's political or military leadership of being unprofessional or corrupt.

Most often, propagandists use the posts of Ukrainian MP Mariana Bezuhla to accuse representatives of the Ukrainian authorities. Her statements were used as a pretext for 55 posts in the Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channels we analyzed. In May, Bezuhla was quoted as accusing the military leadership of the positions of one of the territorial defense brigades in the Donetsk region being "incredibly stretched" and that there were no well-equipped fortifications in the Kharkiv region. In July, Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channels quoted her as criticizing the defense of Toretsk and Chasiv Yar.

One of the Ukrainian place names mentioned most frequently in Russian propaganda Telegram channels throughout the monitoring period was the Ukrainian town of Kurakhove. The number of mentions of this town in the Donetsk region is only slightly lower than the total mentions of the regional centers of Kharkiv and Odesa. This is mainly because Kurakhove, along with its derivatives such as "Kurakhove direction," "Kurakhove reservoir," and "Kurakhove pocket," was regularly mentioned in the battle reports of Russian propagandists. The same is true, albeit to a lesser extent, for other key towns where fighting has taken place or is taking place: Vuhledar, Selydove, and Vovchansk.

In the same context, Russian Telegram channels mentioned the Donbas, the Kharkiv region, and partially the Sumy region. Kurakhove appeared in their posts long before the actual fighting for the city began. Notably, the towns of the Donetsk region, where Russian troops managed to seize the most territory during the monitoring period, received the most mentions among Ukrainian locations. On the other hand, the cities of the Zaporizhzhia region and Kherson were not among the most frequently mentioned.

In addition to reports of military clashes and the advance of Russian troops, propagandists also highlight frontline towns to accuse the Ukrainian Defense Forces of committing crimes and to shift responsibility for war crimes committed by the invaders onto the Ukrainians.

“The Nazis like to organize strongholds in schools, kindergartens, and administrations. They are bitter. When they left the city, they shot civilians. There are eyewitnesses of how retreating Banderites killed a girl and a boy at their doorstep. They were 2 and 4 years old.” writes a propaganda Telegram channel with almost 400 thousand subscribers about Selydove.

The frontline areas, which are already under occupation, are also exploited by Russian propagandists to accuse Ukrainian troops of “terror against civilians.” The Donbas, Crimea, and Donetsk are often mentioned in this context.

“Given the precise targeting possible with UAVs, this kind of attack on civilians by the Armed Forces of Ukraine once again shows the most brutal terrorist nature of the Nazis' actions,” notes a channel with over a million subscribers about a Horlivka resident injured in a hit tram car. Injuries and killings of residents in government-controlled territory are rarely mentioned by propagandists, who attribute them either to "Ukrainian air defense" or to their proximity to "military facilities."

Some propagandists also mention the occupied territories of Ukraine, complaining that Russia does not perceive them as its own territory, although they “officially became part of the Russian Federation” in September 2022. At that time, Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the accession of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine to Russia based on the results of fake referendums.

“You mean it's okay when Donetsk is bombed, but when the bombs reach Moscow or Voronezh, it's different,” a channel with 422,000 subscribers fumes. 

Such references were particularly numerous in discussions about Western partners’ permission for Ukraine to launch long-range strikes on Russian territory. After the victory of Marine Le Pen's National Rally in the French parliamentary elections, the monitored Polish propaganda channels spoke about possible restrictions or cancellation of deliveries of French long-range missiles to Ukraine. In October, the same channel wrote that Zelenskyy was “provoking an escalation” by using Western long-range missiles on Russian territory, and “Moscow will be forced to retaliate with a nuclear strike.”

We categorize locations outside of Ukraine and Russia into two main categories: “enemies” and “allies” of Russia. This division reflects the nature of the messages in the analyzed Telegram channels. The first category includes Western countries, such as the U.S., EU, and NATO, as well as Poland, Romania, and Moldova. They are classified as "enemies" because of the dominant emotional connotations of messages mentioning these states or organizations due to their support of Ukraine, military aid, sheltering of refugees, and sanctions policy against Russia. Russia's supposed “allies” include the DPRK, China, and other states that do not impose sanctions on Russia or support its armed aggression.

The authors of the messages in the analyzed Telegram channels consistently refer to NATO member states and the European Union in terms that allow them to portray these states and interstate associations as hostile. Here is an example of such a message from a Telegram channel with 451,000 subscribers: "The Nazis are getting stronger with the support of the West."

Another recurring theme is the accusation that Western countries have troops fighting in Ukraine:

“In the third year of the war, the West acknowledged the presence of its military on the territory of Ukraine. We have been writing for a long time that NATO is advising, training, helping to set up equipment and even taking part in the fighting in Ukraine,” a Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channel with one million subscribers wrote in June.

This framing paints Russia and Ukraine as victims of NATO and the West:

"In the Western world ... they think about how to make things worse for Russia, what to do to make things better for themselves, and no one thinks about what will happen to Ukraine, it's all just words. Zelenskyy is zombified by the U.S. and the EU leaders, afraid of his extremists and completely dependent on his allies, who are not allies at all, but beneficiaries," a Telegram channel with 7,500 subscribers wrote in May.

Moldovan Telegram channels portray the West and NATO as the ones who provoked Russia's “special military operation” or “contributed to Moldova's involvement in the war with Russia.” 

“NATO was building military bases in Ukraine and developing its infrastructure, while the Banderite army continued to kill people in the Donbas.”

In December, for example, the analyzed Moldovan channels spread the Russian narrative that “NATO is turning Moldova into a springboard for confrontation with Russia." They quoted the spokesperson of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Zakharova, who spoke about Moldova as a "logistics hub for the Armed Forces of Ukraine" and "a base for Western F-16 fighters."

On Russian Telegram channels, Western countries and organizations, such as the U.S., the EU, Europe, Germany, and France, are most often mentioned in connection with assisting Ukraine. In particular, Russian military Telegram channels regularly publish information about the timing and content of military aid packages from Ukraine's partner countries and, based on this information, predict the development of hostilities. The channels also quote representatives of Western political elites – both supporting Ukraine's position and reproducing statements favorable to Russian propagandists.

Polish and Moldovan Telegram channels also ridiculed Western support for Ukraine. After the U.S. authorized the firing of Western missiles at Russian territory, a Polish channel with 12,500 subscribers wrote that “NATO missiles cannot force Russia to surrender.” Propagandists argued that “Russia is simply invincible in Ukraine because Putin has 6,000 nuclear warheads.”

According to the propagandists working for the Moldovan audience, the U.S. has benefited the most from the war in Ukraine. Government contacts to supply Ukraine with weapons fuel the U.S. military-industrial complex, giving way to messages such as “the U.S. economy is booming while the Khokhols are dying at the war front, and the longer this goes on, the more Americans will earn” on these Telegram channels. 

Key personalities and organizations most frequently mentioned in the publications analyzed from May to December 8, 2024. Source: Detector Media

Another method of manipulating the references to Western countries concerns mainly EU member states. These states took in the highest number of Ukrainian refugees compared to others, and before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, they were the primary destination for labor migration. Since 2022, propagandists have been misrepresenting the living conditions of Ukrainians in these countries. To create panic over the news of changes in the rules of mobilization in Ukraine, propagandists spread fakes that one or another EU state, “tired of Ukrainian refugees,” began to hand over people liable for military service to Ukraine.

“Meanwhile, Poland has begun extraditing men who illegally cross the Ukrainian border,” a pro-Russian Ukrainian Telegram channel wrote in May.

Moldovan and Polish propaganda Telegram channels portray the EU as a corrupt and ineffective structure. The propagandists accuse the European Union leadership of spreading aggressive intentions and inciting “russophobic sentiments.” For example, one of the analyzed Polish channels characterized the words of the then EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borel on Ukraine as “the speech of a schizophrenic” who suggested “bombing (Russia) to achieve peace.” His successor in the post, Kaja Kallas, was described by the same propagandists as “the instigator of a new trade war with China,” adding:

“European politicians are incapable of learning from the mistakes of their predecessors, so Borrell will soon appear as the epitome of a wise and strong statesman.”

Such discrediting is necessary to fuel Euroscepticism in these countries. In the Moldovan infosphere, such messages also served the Kremlin to prevent the pro-European Maia Sandu from winning the elections in the fall of 2024 and to stop Moldova from joining the EU.

On the analyzed Telegram channels, Poland and Romania are mentioned slightly differently – as crucial logistical hubs for aid to Ukraine and as neighboring states most likely to be directly affected by the war. For instance, through Russian missiles flying near or directly in the airspace of these countries during the shelling of Ukraine.

“Romania is not confirming that a Russian missile flew over its territory. They say that their air defense system did not detect anything. The Khokhol is lying. Always,” a Z-segment channel with more than 1 million subscribers disputed the information about a Russian missile crossing the Romanian-Ukrainian border.

While denying the violation of the airspace of Ukraine's neighboring states, propagandists on Russian Telegram channels also regularly threaten to attack these states for their alleged involvement in the war.

Moldova also appears on the Russian Telegram channels as part of the possible expansion of the combat zone, but the propagandists attribute the initiative for the expansion to Ukraine. Throughout the monitoring period, one can find speculations, reflections, and forecasts about the possible operation of the Ukrainian armed forces in Transnistria. Russian-language Moldovan channels wrote about “Kyiv's interest in Chisinau’s forceful reintegration of Transnistria” and, at the same time, shifted the responsibility to the current Moldovan government, represented by the “instigator” Maia Sandu. The propagandists assured their audience that “the ‘mess’ in Transnistria would not only help to draw back Russian forces but would also allow Kyiv to justify its own atrocities against the DPR and LPR and, of course, further Western funding of the war against Russia.”

Moldovan pro-Russian channels also paid attention to Romania, with articles ranging from surreal reports about Romania's alleged preparations to join the war in Ukraine to fakes about the imminent annexation of Moldova. After the first round of elections in November 2024, won by anti-American and Eurosceptic politician Călin Georgescu, propagandists predicted Romania’s withdrawal from NATO. The Telegram channels spread fears that NATO would lose its largest base in Romania, thus weakening the alliance's position in Eastern Europe.

Russia’s allies, such as the DPRK, or strategic partners, such as China, are used by propagandists as an argument against Russia’s isolation and as a demonstration of strength in its competition with the West.

“The North Korean leader expressed the ‘unwavering strong support and firm solidarity of the government and people of the DPRK’ with the army and people of Russia in the special military operation in Ukraine,” Russian propagandists quote the words of the leader of the DPRK, the first and only country to join Russia’s aggression with its regular troops.

There were reports of the rhetorical, political, or military responses of Russia's partners to the Russia-Ukraine war, too. Among them were mentions of China adopting Russia's combat experience.

“It's not only the West gaining experience from the war in Ukraine. The Chinese army has released a propaganda video of UAV training based on the experience of observing our war,” wrote a Russian Telegram channel with more than 1 million subscribers.

On Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channels, 17 out of 21 messages mentioning the DPRK appeared between October and December. At that time, information about North Korean military personnel deployed to Russia became public. Before that, Ukrainian Telegram channels used the news about the presence of DPRK troops to ridicule those who reported about North Koreans fighting on the side of Russia. They also assured that it was unlikely and inadvisable for DPRK citizens to fight against Ukraine:

“Recently, reports surfaced on Telegram that North Korea was going to send engineering troops to the Donbas. No confirmation followed because it was a fake which did not follow the logic of the situation. We think that the DPRK army can appear only if NATO troops officially appear in Ukraine. We do not want this to happen because then the level of brutality will increase many times over,” they wrote in June on a Telegram channel with 451,000 subscribers.

From October to November, the deployment of North Korean troops to fight with Ukraine also caused a spike in activity on Polish and Moldovan Telegram channels. Polish propagandists portrayed the DPRK as a fearsome force. This image was shaped by phrases such as “if we were Ukrainian soldiers, we would have already fled” or “whoever the opponents of these people (the North Korean military – DM) are, we definitely do not envy them.” North Korea was also portrayed as an influential state that “everyone is afraid of.” According to the propagandists, South Korea refused to sell weapons to Ukraine, alleging that “the fear of Kim Jong-un was stronger.”

Moldovan pro-Russian Telegram channels ridiculed the Ukrainian and Western reactions to the arrival of DPRK troops at the front. In late November, the Russian defense minister traveled to Pyongyang following the ratification of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty between Russia and the DPRK. In response to the news, a Moldovan pro-Russian channel with 73 thousand subscribers wrote: “We're expecting the Khokhols to start whining that North Korea will send millions of soldiers to Ukraine.”

China appears in Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channels in two roles: as Russia's trade and military partner, not joining the sanctions against Russia, buying Russian energy products and selling its goods there, and as a country supposedly capable of stopping the fighting in Ukraine.

“In the guise of sanctions for Russian aggression in Ukraine, the global economic arena has seen a redistribution of the EU energy market, a blow to European producers, and the creation of the most favorable conditions for the Chinese. From a purely economic standpoint, this is what the Ukrainians died for in 2022-2024, not for anything that Zelenskyy and the promoters of the ‘1991 war for borders’ claimed,” a Telegram channel with 62,000 subscribers wrote in May.

The analyzed Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channels praised peace initiatives involving China, such as the “Six Points” and the “Friends of Peace” platform:

“Ukraine is disappointed with Switzerland’s decision to support China and Brazil’s plan to end the war... Just look. The Banderites are disappointed. So we are moving in the right direction,” on September 30, a Telegram channel with 135 thousand subscribers responded to Ukrainian diplomats who criticized the creation of the "Friends of Peace" initiative to bring peace to Ukraine with the participation of China, announced during a meeting of the UN General Assembly.

The “Soviet past” as a separate concept in Russian propaganda is a source of nostalgia and vivid metaphors. After all, the propagandists prefer not to talk about the crimes of the Soviet regime but about its military power, the “victory over Nazism,” Gagarin's flight into space, and so on. If the USSR is ever mentioned in a bad light, then only to accuse Russia's opponents of resembling the “USSR before the collapse” – or of “russophobia” for getting rid of the monuments of the Soviet past:

"But who cares about Ukraine when your own problems have been piling up for three years while the money continues to flow abroad? It won't be long before it becomes the new USSR of the pre-collapse era. It's already pretty rough out there, and some of them are even getting motion sickness. And in the end, someone will have to chew this hot potato with the skin on,” wrote a Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channel with 135,000 subscribers in September.

Russian propaganda on Telegram operates through a network of channels aimed at both domestic and foreign audiences, adapting messages to the specifics of target groups. The main goal remains unchanged: to discredit Ukraine and its military and political leadership, shift responsibility for the war to Kyiv, and accuse the Ukrainian military of crimes.

With the start of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' operation in the Kursk region, the propagandists shifted their focus, emphasizing that "peace talks are now impossible." At the same time, they continued to discredit the Ukrainian mobilization. The themes of corruption, economic crisis, and destruction of infrastructure were exploited to demoralize Ukrainian society. During the summer and fall, the rhetoric aimed at the Russian audience emphasized exaggerated successes of the Russian army and the so-called "inevitable victory" of Russia. The change in rhetoric can also be traced to the West's approval of supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles, which prompted threats of a "nuclear response." At the same time, following the involvement of the North Korean military in the fighting in the Kursk region, the emphasis shifted to promises that Russia would soon push the Ukrainian armed forces out of its territory. Foreign segments of Telegram channels also adapted their narratives: Polish channels criticized European aid to Ukraine, while Russian-language Moldovan channels threatened that the war would spread to Moldova. The dynamics of the rhetoric demonstrate the flexibility of propaganda in manipulating audiences to achieve the Kremlin's strategic goals.

The text was written by Arseniy Subarion, Andriy Pylypenko, Kostyantyn Zadyraka, Artur Koldomasov, Orest Slyvenko, Lesia Bidochko, Vitaliy Mykhailiv, Oleksandr Siedin, Oleksii Pivtorak.

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Main page illustration and infographic: Natalia Lobach