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Detector Media sums up the media year 2023 with traditional reviews of critical events and trends in the media world. Read more under the tag #Results of the year 2023. Detector Media Research Center summarizes the results of investigating key manipulative messages that the enemy agitational propaganda spread in Telegram in 2023.
Telegram is currently the leading social network from which Ukrainians get news: according to the results of the annual all-Ukrainian survey by USAID-Internews, the share of its users in Ukraine increased from 20% in 2021 to 60% in 2022 and to 72% in 2023. In addition, this social network is the most popular news source for Ukrainians abroad. Detector Media launched the Kremlingram project to analyze key enemy propaganda messages appearing in Telegram regularly. We discussed in detail the Telegram channels that poison the Ukrainian information space here.
"United States of America stopped supporting Ukraine"
In August 2023, the US president asked the American Congress to pass a bill providing 24 billion in aid to Ukraine. The US Ministry of Defense reported that "they have exhausted almost all available funds intended to assist Ukraine." At this time, Congress began to consider the federal budget, but due to disagreement on many points of the budget, the factions did not have time to reach an agreement by the deadline (September 30, 2023). Furthermore, there was a risk of a shutdown or a partial suspension of the government. It was necessary to approve a temporary budget for 45 days, which included more than $6 billion for Ukraine to avoid it. The radical wing of the Republicans (Trumpists) delayed the adoption of the corresponding draft law. In the end, the aid issue to Ukraine was excluded from the provisional estimate project and brought to a separate discussion. Yet, it does not mean a refusal of further support, and negotiations are still ongoing regarding the budget decision on aid to Ukraine — in the form of a separate law or as part of a larger package of funding from the Pentagon. For Russian propaganda, this situation became a reason for manipulation. According to it, the Republicans have long been determined to deprive Ukraine of aid, and the vote for the temporary budget became a convenient excuse. In addition, according to the propagandists, the Democrats are allegedly trying to abdicate responsibility for the situation in Ukraine because "they [Democrats] will try to put the Republicans on the hook that if they refuse to allocate funding to Kyiv (which is important for Biden), then they will be responsible for Ukraine’s defeat (not Biden, but the Republicans)". In addition, the manipulators predicted that without decisive successes at the front, Kyiv would not receive aid.
First, the US maintains bipartisan support for Ukraine despite the Trumpists’ position. Secondly, supporting Ukraine is one of the early geopolitical goals of the United States. The situation at the front does not form the final decision in solving the issue of supporting Ukraine. Third, the shutdown did not halt the counteroffensive or drastic changes on the front in favor of Moscow, as agitational propaganda would have it. Fourth, aid from the USA to Ukraine is expected in 2024. Fifth, in December 2023, Ukraine and the USA signed a Memorandum on joint production in the defense industry and exchange of technical data. It will help Ukraine to develop its military-industrial complex (production facilities to provide the army with the necessary air defense, manufacture of critical ammunition, and repair of military equipment) and be less dependent on external factors.
Propagandists are trying to undermine the faith of Ukrainians in the support of its allies. Therefore, the escalation in the Middle East is the reason for the appearance of reports that Ukraine has been forgotten, and the world’s attention to it has sharply decreased against the background of cases of armed aggression in another region. "Apparently, Ukraine has already switched to an economy of shock weapons, in particular, in Crimea. Because soon it will have nothing at all [to shoot with] because Israel is more important," states a post from one of the anonymous Telegram channels. Agitational propaganda insists that Ukraine is a secondary problem for the US and Europe compared to Israel so that resources will be directed there. These messages fit into the general context of the agitational propaganda theses, that due to the position of the Republicans, "Ukraine is being transferred to a hungry financial ration from the USA". Therefore, now, the propagandists claim that the West will need to freeze the war in Ukraine, even if only by fulfilling part of Moscow's demands, to focus its attention and resources on the explosive Middle East.
However, the US military is eager to supply its Ukrainian and Israeli allies with the necessary amount of ammunition and other equipment. U.S. Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said that her department is already working on approving additional funding to ensure the Pentagon's munitions production and acquisition plans can simultaneously meet the needs of both Israel and Ukraine.
"Ukraine refuses to hold elections and slides into authoritarianism".
According to the Constitution, the next parliamentary elections in Ukraine were to be held on October 29, 2023, and presidential elections were in the spring of 2024. However, after the declaration of martial law, by Article 19 of the Law of Ukraine "On the Legal Regime of Martial Law", it is prohibited to hold elections for the President of Ukraine, the Verkhovna Rada, and local self-government bodies [during martial law]. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the 2024 wartime elections require legislative changes and additional funding. He also added that, in his opinion, the Western countries should share the responsibility for elections during the war if they insist on such a manifestation of will. Verkhovna Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced that the most rightful decision would be to hold elections immediately after the cancellation of martial law in Ukraine. According to a survey published by the sociological service of the Razumkov Center in October 2023, 15% of respondents support holding elections before the war's end. At the same time, 64% of respondents do not support holding national elections in Ukraine before the end of the war.
Russia held fake elections in the occupied territories in September. Most residents did not notice these elections, but agitational propaganda boasted about them in their information resources. Therefore, Russian propaganda is trying to spread to domestic and foreign audiences a series of statements regarding the postponement of elections in Ukraine, which are aimed at undermining the stability of the Ukrainian state in the conditions of a major war. In particular, Russian propaganda in Telegram spread messages that Zelenskyy was supposedly a dictator, so it was profitable for him to continue the war. According to them, as soon as the elections are announced, Zelenskyy's ratings will drop because people do not support his policies en masse. Similar agitational propaganda statements are an attempt to sow doubts about the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government, to impose the opinion that it has been in power for a long time, so it should be overthrown. Statements about Zelenskyy's "dictatorship" contrast with the realities of Russia itself: Putin has been in power for 23 years, and he is extending his power by "zeroing" means, regularly and in various ways neutralizing various types of political opponents — from non-systemic opposition to former close allies — building a centralized an authoritarian power vertical, suppresses freedom of speech, etc. Democracy in Russia is a simulated facade, which Putin himself calls "sovereign".
Another block of messages concerns the alleged disappointment of the West with the reluctance of the Ukrainian authorities to hold elections. From the standpoint of agitational propaganda, the West doubts Zelenskyy's democracy or even wants to replace him with someone else as soon as possible. However, the official representatives of the West consider the security context and do not pedal the election issue, leaving it to Ukraine’s discretion.
Several factors make democratic elections unlikely in the current security environment — first is the threat of airstrikes. In the current election conditions, the residents of the occupied territories would also be deprived [of their right to vote], and it is also unrealistic to organize an expression of will for millions of Ukrainian refugees abroad. Hundreds of military personnel cannot be distracted from the election campaign either. In addition, full-fledged democratic elections require pluralism and debates, which in the case of Ukraine will primarily concern the war. Such discussions can also cause a split in society and undermine the decisions of the military-political management of the state, which the Kremlin's information machine will definitely use.
The Russians are perfectly aware of these arguments but still manipulate this topic. According to them, the elections are impossible not because of Russia's full-scale attack on Ukraine but because of Zelenskyy's whim. They state that he deliberately slows down various processes and obstructs the holding of elections to remain in power. However, in reality, the postponement of the elections in Ukraine is facilitated by Russia, which continues to wage war against it.
Export collapse and "black winter"
This year, a separate topic that bothered Russian propaganda in the Telegram was Ukraine's economy and the challenges it faced. In pro-Russian media and social networks, propagandists continued to call on Ukrainians to surrender to Russia, not to fall into the economic abyss. The manipulations focused on the following topics: continuation of the Black Sea grain initiative, blocking transportation at the borders of Ukraine and several EU countries, ensuring the stability of the energy system in winter, continuation of financial assistance to Ukraine, etc.
On July 17, 2023, Russia informed the UN and the President of Turkey, Erdogan, that it was withdrawing from the "grain agreement", which ensured the export of Ukrainian agricultural products through the ports of Pivdenny, Odesa, and Chornomorsk. Even though Russia itself occupied a part of Ukrainian agricultural land, mined fields, destroyed agricultural machinery, killed people, and stole Ukrainian grain for its own exports, Russian agitational propaganda continuously tried to discredit the Ukrainian initiative and justify its violations. After the failure of the "grain agreement", Russia began to attack port infrastructure to stop Ukrainian agricultural exports regularly.
The following main messages of Russian agitational propaganda on this topic can be singled out.
"Ukraine uses grain agreement to attack Crimea". Allegedly, on March 23 and April 24, 2023, Ukraine carried out attacks on the base of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol and the civilian infrastructure in Crimea, using humanitarian grain corridors. According to the head of the occupation council of Crimea, Vladimir Konstantinov, Ukraine allegedly "jeopardized the continuation of the "grain agreement".
"Ukrainian grain is poisoned". Russian propagandists used this thesis to discredit the quality of Ukrainian agricultural products: "This is poisoned grain, which no one in the EU will buy even to feed pigs."
"The grain agreement is Ukraine’s commercial project". Russian diplomats spread this thesis in the USA to ensure that Ukrainian agricultural products do not reach the developing countries that need them the most. Instead, Vladimir Putin repeatedly stated that impoverished countries, in particular in Africa, would receive grain from Russia for free. Although their share in grain and oilseed imports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative was only 2.5%, according to the UN, a third of the crops were imported to China, and 44% to "high-income" countries and the EU.
Ukraine became dependent on alternative EU routes for grain exports after Russia abandoned the deal in July. By removing responsibility from Russia, propagandists shifted the blame to Western countries, which imposed sanctions against it and thereby allegedly violated the rules of trade, which caused price jumps. According to Russians, the sanctions imposed against Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine are provoking the food crisis and not at all the blocking of Ukrainian ports, the uncontrolled mining of the Black Sea, or the theft of Ukrainian grain by them.
After the unilateral withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russian agitational propaganda switched to blocking Ukrainian agricultural exports at the borders with the EU. In May 2023, the European Commission allowed five countries (Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia) to ban the domestic sale of Ukrainian wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower while allowing the transit of such goods for export to other countries. These countries tried to protect their own agricultural sectors, blaming imports from Ukraine for falling prices on local markets. Restrictions at the European Commission’s level ended on September 15, but Hungary and Poland extended them.
"Poland can block Ukrainian agricultural exports for 20 years". Propaganda Telegram channels spread such forecasts at the end of October, even after parliamentary elections were held in Poland on October 15. But even before the elections to the Parliament, pro-Russian networks abounded with reports that "Polish truck drivers stopped 20% of Ukrainian exports." On the eve of September 15, 2023, when the European Commission's permit expired, there were reports that Polish farmers would unite with truckers and completely stop even grain transit from Ukraine, while Romanian farmers would block the Danube ports from October 1, 2023. The specifics of the regulation or the context of the approaching parliamentary elections were not explained to the readers. Instead, they promoted theses that "Ukraine’s main ally, Poland, stuck a knife in our back" or that "Poland is interested in continuing the war because it makes money from it." It was reported that Poland allegedly agreed to the blockade of Ukrainian grain from the USA and the EU. Agitational propaganda even resorted to the tactic of the emphasis shifting when, in some reports, the focus shifted from Hungary, which blocked financial assistance from the EU to Poland, which was called the country that "really stopped Ukraine’s European integration."
Even though some customs checkpoints remained blocked at the end of the year, the Ukrainian authorities established a dialogue with the new Polish government. At a meeting in Kyiv on December 22, 2023, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Poland's Minister of Foreign Affairs Radoslav Sikorski agreed that "bilateral relations should receive a new impetus, and all problematic issues should be resolved in the spirit of mutual trust and respect."
With the cold weather approaching, pro-Russian networks in Telegram began to broadcast and reproduce last year’s theses. In the fall of 2022, Russians launched their first massive missile attack targeting critical infrastructure, causing blackouts in early October. Therefore, this year, from October, apocalyptic predictions began to increase and multiply. According to Russians, last year, Russia hit with missiles and drones "not at full strength", but this time Ukraine is facing a real "dark winter". This phrase describes problems in Ukraine's energy, economy, housing, and communal services, alluding to new massive power outages, growing economic difficulties, and declining fortunes.
Agitational propaganda claims that "Holodomor", "total blackout", and "tough winter" will befall Ukraine even without new barbaric shelling of civilian infrastructure by the Russian occupation army. Enemy propaganda claims that allegedly only some agreements between Russia and the West saved Ukraine from the Holodomor twice: "Last winter, Russia had two climatic "windows" when it was able to bring the situation in Ukraine to the Holodomor case with hundreds of thousands or millions of victims. In both "windows", missiles and drones were silent or almost silent, and this may be the result of Russia's collusion with the West." Propagandists predict Ukraine’s "complete blackout" in the winter of 2023-2024 as well: "At the same time, it is quite likely that the Russian Armed Forces will continue to strike the critical infrastructure of Ukraine — all targets are actually scouted, and essentially any city can be left without light and heat for unlimited time. This will be exactly the same "Holodomor". Russian propaganda intimidates the civilian population of Ukraine with slightly less apocalyptic scenarios: "Even without Russian strikes, the power outages may last for 8 or 10 hours in the coming winter." At the same time, in November-December 2023, it is precisely in the territories of the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions that the occupation administrations and Kremlin’s proteges were unable to cope with the consequences of a natural disaster for several weeks. At the same time, residents of several dozen settlements remained without electricity and heat, and some places lacked water supply. The occupiers and collaborators faced the consequences of what they used to frighten Ukrainians simply as a result of the influence of nature and not as a result of strikes by missiles or drones.
Also, propagandists are spreading fakes such as "it will soon become unbearable to live in Ukraine, and the number of victims due to the lack of electricity may be greater than from nuclear weapons." Agitational propaganda bombards readers with messages that "prove" that without Russian gas, oil, concessions to the Russians on the battlefield, and the lifting of sanctions against Russian businessmen, Ukraine will fall into the economic abyss. However, despite these propagandist claims, strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure or promises of a "dark winter" did not force the majority of Ukrainians to support "peace at any price" and Ukraine's territorial concessions in favor of the Russian occupiers. According to the latest survey conducted by KMIS, 80% of Ukrainians oppose territorial concessions to achieve peace.
Obsolete weapons, the failure of the counteroffensive, and the "disabled army"
Much of the Russian propaganda activities this year were aimed at discrediting Ukraine’s allies’ efforts and downplaying their [Russian] losses from Western weapons. If last year the networks were full of reports about the destruction of a more significant number of Himars than were transferred to Ukraine, then this year the "hunting for Leopards" and even "the destruction of F-16 aircraft at base airfields" began. Moreover, after the end of the summer-autumn campaign, propagandists focused on the Ukrainian counteroffensive’s failures, the number of casualties among Ukrainian soldiers, as well as the alleged appearance of a whole "disabled army."
The leading agitational propaganda’s disinformation message on the topic of Western weapons directed against Ukraine is that the alleged allies will never, ever provide Ukraine with certain types or models of firearms. "Ukraine will never be given the necessary equipment; if it was, it will not be enough." It was first with heavy and self-propelled artillery, tanks, and armored vehicles, then with fighter jets and long-range missiles. Thus, one of the pro-Russian anonymous Telegram channels wrote: "Our source in the Office of the President said that the West's attitude to war will begin to change in the future. We should not wait for the promised tanks and planes because the armed sabotage will increase, and equipment will be transferred point by point to stabilize the front." As one can see, Western tanks are already helping the Defense Forces of Ukraine destroy the Russian invaders, our pilots are mastering American F-16 fighter jets, and European countries, for example, Denmark, have announced their intention to hand over the planes already in the first quarter of 2024.
A similar information case occurred with the USA's transfer of ATACMS long-range missile systems to Ukraine. On October 10, 2023, the pro-Russian Telegram channel published the following post: "Biden's adviser Sullivan again refused to supply Ukraine’s Armed Forces with ATACMS long-range missiles. Previously, as an explanation of this decision, he used Biden's argument stating that Russia would perceive the transfer of these missiles as an unacceptable escalation. However, the US missiles will not be given anyway. Since their provision to Ukraine "depletes the US stockpile at a time when these missiles are needed in case of unforeseen circumstances: whether it is Iran, North Korea, or China." This song will play forever..." In exactly one week, Ukraine made the first strike with these missiles on the occupiers' airfields in Berdyansk and Luhansk, destroying the enemy's aircraft.
The main emphasis of Vladimir Putin's statements, as in the case of commenting on the supply of other types of weapons to Ukraine from the allies, concerned the assertion of the uselessness of such supplies for the front. "The most important thing is that it is fundamentally unable to change the situation on the frontline. It is impossible. It can be said for sure," Putin said. Anonymous pro-Russian Telegram channels echoed the interpretation of the Russian dictator. The main hopes of the propagandists concerned the small number of missiles supplied to Ukraine’s Armed Forces: "The Storm Shadow missiles was also delivered despite everything. Ukrainians used them point-wise, not massively. There was no question of daily use, and sometimes the pauses [between the hits] lasted for a week or more. Accordingly, they [missiles] had a limited influence on the frontline... Therefore, we should repeat, the question of the number of delivered missiles is the critical one".
Another block of hostile propaganda messages regarding the weapons that the Western allies transfer to Ukraine is that they are allegedly outdated, technically unreliable, and not suitable for Ukraine’s climate. Enemy disinformers seem to copy theses from the Second World War: " They [Western cars] were created for urban combat and the desert. In our reality, they can be driven, but it's difficult. Anonymous pro-Russian Telegram channels do not forget to hint that Soviet equipment is superior to Western equipment, without mentioning the Russian army directly: Ukrainian servicemen claim that the T series tanks, which Ukraine uses, although being old, are more reliable in battle than any foreign models."
Highlighting successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in 2022, Russian agitational propaganda focused on the disinformation claim that "Ukraine has become a training ground for Western weapons." During the Ukrainian counteroffensives in 2023, the propaganda media broadcast messages that the Ukrainian army does not spare its soldiers, "wages a war with people’s lives", throwing them into frontal attacks and "meat assaults", etc.
For example, Russians distributed Ukrainian language posts with information such as "our army liberated 270-300 km², losing 71,000 soldiers" in Telegram. In these publications, propagandists indicated that to de-occupy all territories within the 1991 borders, it would be necessary to allegedly "use" almost 29 million Ukrainians. As of September 10, 2023, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated about 270 km². However, the information on the number of dead Ukrainian soldiers during hostilities is fabricated, as it is a state secret. According to the thesis in anonymous Telegram channels, "To appease the West, Ukraine is carrying out a "slow" counteroffensive, not advancing too much, but not stopping either."
With the appearance of news about the Armed Forces of Ukraine's loss of the first Western-style tank (the British Challenger 2) in early September, manipulative messages intensified, stating that the counteroffensive had failed, "up to 35% of Western equipment has already been lost". The transfer of aircraft and long-range missiles will not change the situation. Such claims echo and continue the propaganda messages about Western weapons mentioned above.
Agitational propaganda uses disinformation about the existence of a "disabled army" in Ukraine to demoralize Ukrainian society and raise the fighting spirit of Russians, claiming that with such an army [e.g., a weak Ukrainian one], it will be easier for them to fight. "It is not worth relying on the fact that people with health restrictions will fight the same way as those whose health is fine... There are great chances that this category of citizens will most actively surrender, where medical assistance will definitely be provided to them", said one of the pro-Russian online resources. In this context, Russian propagandists simultaneously promoted two theses: that people with disabilities will soon be conscripted into the Ukrainian army and that Ukraine’s Armed Forces already consist mainly of people with disabilities. Therefore, the prediction of a tragic, "disabled" future for Ukraine’s Armed Forces is supported by assumptions that such a future has already arrived. "Villages are being raided; everyone is being mobilized: crooked, sick, alcoholic, village people with disabilities without fingers," one of the anonymous popular pro-Russian Telegram channels described the mobilization in Ukraine.
As pro-Russian media and social media users claimed, training from NATO would not help Ukrainians in preparing for hostilities. For example, one of the anonymous pro-Russian Telegram channels published the following post without any references to the source of information: "60 percent of soldiers trained in NATO countries have died, another 20 percent are crippled or in captivity... According to the idea, help is help... but Ukraine itself does well in offensives... well, using the human meat... but that's what it supposedly wants...". It should be noted that some Ukrainian military personnel, after serious injuries, amputations, and prosthetics, do return to the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and strengthen the Ukrainian defense forces by doing this voluntarily.
"Conflict between the military and political leadership of Ukraine": situational discussions
Russian propaganda regularly disseminated information about the confrontation between Valeriy Zaluzhnyy and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Allegedly, the Supreme Commander seeks to change the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces due to the fear of political competition and the latter's greater authority in the military. Zaluzhnyy's article, published on November 1, 2023, in the British edition of The Economist, became another reason for Russia to spread messages about a possible conflict between the country's political and military leadership. Accordingly, the President's Office plans to fire Zaluzhnyy, replacing him with a more favorable candidate. Russians also argued that Zelenskyy would blame Zaluzhnyy for "the failure of the counteroffensive" and dismiss him for "defeat".
A vivid example of speculation was the agitational propaganda commenting on Lloyd Austin's tweet after his arrival in Kyiv. The tweet said: “I just arrived in Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian leaders. I am here today to convey an important message — the United States will continue to support Ukraine in its fight for freedom against Russian aggression, now and in the future." But in the word "leaders" (not "leader"), pro-Russian Telegram channels saw traces of a conspiracy and the readiness of the United States to support Zaluzhnyy in his alleged confrontation with Zelenskyy. Therefore, in their interpretations, Russian propagandists modeled internal Russian realities, where there can probably only be one leader, and the multiple use of the word becomes a signal for special services about a conspiracy.
Agitational propaganda disperses such "betrayal" statements about the alleged conflict between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyy, seeking to sow distrust in the country's political leadership. In addition, propagandists are trying to portray Ukraine as mired in civil and internal strife instead of being united and directing efforts toward victory. Claims of "political competition" between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyy echo the theses that the military may seize power in Kyiv, and Ukraine will end up under junta rule. The Kremlin hopes that as a result of the "coup", the Ukrainian government will lose its legitimacy and trust both in the eyes of Ukrainians and the eyes of the world community.
"We insist that there is no conflict. Again, I emphasize that President Zelenskyy constantly communicates with Mr. Zaluzhnyy. Undoubtedly, there is a situation when it is necessary to hold certain conversations at the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, taking into account how our offensive operations are progressing, what adjustments need to be made, and what needs to be done to make it more effective. But I emphasize once again: these communications occur daily in a working format," — said Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.
Afterword
Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the scale of "agitational propaganda machine production" and the use of disinformation by Russian propagandists has grown and changed almost every month. If, at the beginning of the invasion, Ukrainians could openly laugh at ridiculous fakes and manipulations or messages created with the help of Google Translate, by the end of the second year of the great war, Russian lies and manipulations became more adaptable. This year, propagandists did not need to invent fakes about Bucha or a "dirty" nuclear bomb. They focused on the issues concerning Ukrainian society, which is traumatized and exhausted by the war. Using Telegram, agitational propaganda tries to make Ukrainians lose hope in the further struggle by hyperbolizing existing problems and provoking sensitive topics, such as Western support, mobilization, or economic issues. Debunking fakes, manipulations, disinformation, and hostile propaganda in social networks was one of the work components of Detector Media’s team this year. Critically assessing the information, maintaining "information hygiene", and keeping the responsible consumption of content in social networks can help unite our society, without which it will be more difficult to overcome the challenges of war. In 2024, we will closely monitor Kremlingram’s activities and regularly update our readers on the critical manipulations of the enemy's agitational propaganda.
