Detector Media analyzes how the enemy’s agitational propaganda responded to the U.S. decision to allow strikes with Western missiles on Russian territory and why Russia’s new nuclear deterrence doctrine is yet another form of blackmail.
On November 17, several U.S. media outlets reported that the Biden administration had lifted restrictions on the use of American-made long-range missiles to target military facilities on Russian territory. The story was first published by Reuters and The New York Times.
Negotiations with Ukraine’s partners about the potential use of cruise and ballistic missiles intensified in July 2024, on the eve of the Kursk offensive, when Ukraine unsuccessfully sought permission from the United Kingdom. In September, Ukrainian diplomats once again received a refusal from the United States to allow the use of American-made missiles within internationally recognized Russian territories.
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Ahead of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Ukraine on September 11, media outlets reported that the U.S. was planning to announce its approval for the missile use. However, this information was not confirmed, and the decision was only granted two months later. According to the news agency Axios, the decisive factor in granting the approval was North Korean military involvement on Russia’s side in combat operations in the Kursk region.
Pro-Russian Telegram channels told their audiences that the U.S. president’s decision would inevitably provoke a Russian response. Propagandists placed full responsibility for the consequences of Russia’s retaliation on Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. They also spread claims that the "war is escalating to a new level with corresponding consequences." Russian officials, in their responses to the U.S. decision, resorted to nuclear threats against Ukraine and NATO.
To track the reactions of Russian and pro-Russian channels to these developments, Detector Media analyzed 806 messages in Russian and pro-Russian Telegram channels from November 18 to noon on November 20, containing key phrases in Russian such as “permission” (разрешение), “ATACMS,” and “USA”. The data was provided by the LetsData company.
"Biden wants to take half the world to the grave with him"
In posts discussing the U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles against targets on Russian territory, pro-Russian Telegram channels repeatedly echoed the claim that "the West is pushing the world closer to World War III." Among the analyzed messages, at least 68 contained fear-mongering about the onset of "World War III" as a result of this decision. A shared narrative across 13 Russian and pro-Russian Telegram channels included the phrase that Biden’s approval reflects his desire to "take a large portion of humanity to the grave with him." The origin of such claims traces back to a Telegram post by Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, in which he once again threatened the West with a nuclear strike and the outbreak of global war.
Propagandists personally blamed Joe Biden for the decision to allow Ukraine to strike with U.S.-supplied long-range weaponry. In 18 pro-Russian and Russian channels, it was reported that U.S. Representative Thomas Massie, a Republican, called for Biden's impeachment on the social network X, accusing him of endangering American lives and being a "puppet of the deep state." However, this statement appears to be more of a populist and emotional comment rather than a serious call for impeachment proceedings. This is especially relevant given the political context: in November 2024, the U.S. presidential elections resulted in Republican Donald Trump winning, with power currently transitioning from the 46th administration to the 47th. Thus, impeachment is pointless, as Joe Biden will leave office on January 20, 2025, regardless.
Former Ukrainian People's Deputy (MP) and collaborator Oleg Tsaryov, who has 339,000 Telegram followers, labeled the approval of long-range weaponry as "the Democrats’ attempt to sabotage Trump." According to him, Biden's decision complicates efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine, considering Trump’s promises to end the war before his inauguration. Tsaryov also claimed that the use of these missiles would not significantly alter the balance of power in the conflict, forcing Ukraine to negotiate. He argued that Zelenskyy "would no longer have the opportunity to blame the West for losing the war."
A pro-Russian Telegram channel with a million subscribers echoed this narrative without directly quoting Tsaryov, calling the U.S. decision a "staged act to take down Zelenskyy." Another post in the same channel suggested that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, were allegedly seeking to escalate hostilities through "massive missile strikes" on Russian territory. According to this line of thought, such actions could anger Trump, prompting him to "try to personally work to remove them from the scene as inconvenient figures." In another post, the same channel claimed that Yermak and Zelenskyy were planning to attack power lines at the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant to destabilize the Russian region. Such narratives are a staple of propaganda, aiming to demonize Ukraine's military and political leadership further.
Propaganda Telegram channels also discussed Russia’s anticipated reaction. In one channel with a million subscribers, the massive missile strike by Russia on November 17 was described as a response to the U.S. decision regarding long-range missiles. According to Ukraine’s State Emergency Service, the attack resulted in the deaths of ten people, including two children, and injuries to 51 others, five of whom were children. Following the attack, power outages resumed again across Ukraine.
In another propaganda Telegram channel with 300,000 subscribers, which presents itself as an insider source from Kremlin circles, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was blamed for future power and gas shortages in Ukraine. The channel claimed that Russia resumed attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as a direct reaction to Ukraine’s strikes. The propagandist alleged that a "plan to destroy all Ukrainian nuclear power plants has already been approved" and accused Zelenskyy of "concealing this information from the public."
"PR, informational campaigns, and provocation"
On November 19, reports emerged in the media about a Ukrainian strike using American ATACMS missiles, which allegedly hit an ammunition depot in Russia's Bryansk region. Pro-Russian Telegram channels shared skeptical take on the news. For instance, a channel with 436,000 followers described the first use of American missiles as a "carefully planned information campaign." A similar narrative appeared in a channel with over a million subscribers, claiming that this type of campaign was allegedly necessary for President Zelenskyy to ensure the U.S. does not revoke its permission for missile use amid changes in Russia’s nuclear deterrence doctrine.
Another propaganda channel dismissed reports of ATACMS strikes as a Pentagon "advertising campaign," alleging that "one of the most powerful air defense systems in the world managed to intercept only 25% of the ATACMS missiles... Thanks to such promotional stunts, the U.S. military-industrial complex has secured orders for decades to come."
In some Russian Telegram channels, news about American missile strikes on targets within internationally recognized Russian borders was overshadowed by reports of supposed Russian successes. For example, a Russian military-focused Telegram channel with 775,000 subscribers reassured its audience by claiming that "over 10 HIMARS and M270 MLRS systems carrying ATACMS missiles" were destroyed near Kursk.
Changes to Russia’s nuclear deterrence doctrine
The start of Ukrainian strikes using Western-made missiles on Russian territory coincides with the adoption of a new nuclear doctrine by Russia. Pro-Russian Telegram channels cited Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, who mentioned the possibility of a nuclear response if Western missiles are used against Russia. A pro-Russian Telegram channel with 291,000 subscribers called Peskov's statement "a frank admission that the Kremlin is now seriously considering the use of nuclear weapons."
The changes to the nuclear deterrence doctrine were announced in late September when reports circulated about Ukraine's request to strike Russian territory in the Kursk region. Article 11 of the new policy of nuclear deterrence states that Russia may use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state if a nuclear-armed country supports it. Under this doctrine, the nuclear-armed state is also considered a participant in the conflict. Additionally, Article 11 allows the use of nuclear weapons if foreign military forces attack Russia’s allies. Propagandists claimed that such changes would exacerbate the conflict and are intended to pressure Ukraine's allies, particularly the United States.
"This clause is specifically written for the war with Ukraine to justify the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine and the states that support it," a pro-Russian channel with 291,000 followers wrote while analyzing Article 11.
The nuclear doctrine also applies to North Korea due to a comprehensive partnership agreement between Russia and North Korea, which includes mutual assistance in the event of armed aggression against either party. Against the backdrop of worsening relations between North and South Korea, there is a risk of a new theater of war where Russia's nuclear weapons might potentially be used. South Korea, a key U.S. ally outside NATO, has priority access to surplus U.S. defense equipment under the U.S. Foreign Assistance Act.
Another change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine expands the list of "primary military threats" that nuclear deterrence is intended to neutralize. Russia now considers "the creation or expansion of military blocs bringing their infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders" a threat. According to the doctrine, NATO expansion, including the accession of new members, could be grounds for using nuclear weapons. Given that one of Russia's critical demands for ending its aggression against Ukraine is Ukraine's commitment to a neutral status, these changes aim to deter Ukraine's NATO aspirations and strengthen Russia's negotiating position.
The revised doctrine also introduces a new condition for the use of nuclear weapons: "a mass launch of aerospace attack assets crossing Russia’s borders." These assets include cruise missiles, UAVs, and strategic and tactical aircraft. This provision likely aims to prevent large-scale Ukrainian strikes on Russian military infrastructure.
The changes to the nuclear doctrine outline new "red lines" for the Kremlin and are designed to exert pressure on the West through nuclear blackmail. By introducing this doctrine, the Kremlin seeks to limit Ukraine’s ability to conduct a defensive war and force it to agree to peace on Putin’s terms. However, in practice, Russia has repeatedly established new "red lines" that were later crossed, such as Ukraine’s operations in the Kursk region.
Russia’s adoption of its new nuclear doctrine was a pre-planned response to the potential lifting of restrictions on long-range missile strikes on its territory. This is evident from the fact that the Kremlin announced changes to the doctrine shortly after discussions began regarding Ukraine's possible use of U.S. weaponry against Russian military infrastructure. Through nuclear blackmail, diplomatic pressure, and attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the Kremlin aims to force Ukraine and the West to capitulate on Russian terms. Propaganda efforts are focused on spreading panic among Ukrainians, undermining trust in the government, fostering a sense of constant fear, and bolstering Russia’s image as a powerful geopolitical player. In response to violations of its ever-shifting "red lines," Russia resorts to outright terror, including mass missile strikes on civilian targets and psychological operations. For instance, on November 20, reports of an "exceptionally massive strike" were circulated to incite panic within Ukrainian society.
Main page illustration: Natalia Lobach
