Українською читайте тут.
The main topic in the Russian segment of Telegram last week was the situation in the Kursk region. At that time, we observed panic and confusion among Russian Telegram channels. This week, the reports have become even more contradictory as the territory controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) and the geography of the combat operations have expanded. The enemy’s propaganda is trying to conceal Russian losses, including the number of killed and captured, by presenting a victorious image. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for them to maintain the image of successful resistance and downplay the consequences of the Ukrainian offensive.
As a result of the operation in the Kursk region, as of August 13, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had taken control of 74 settlements, according to a statement by the President of Ukraine on his Telegram channel. A day earlier, during a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff, Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that more than 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory were under UAF control. Within a week, Ukraine managed to take control of an area equivalent to what Russia had occupied since the beginning of 2024.
Western media view the offensive in Kursk as a “turning point in the war” and an erasure of the last of Putin’s red lines. Bloomberg writes about the dismantling of Putin’s image as a “protector of ordinary Russians” and suggests that it will “bolster Kyiv’s argument that US and European allies shouldn’t fear Kremlin threats of escalation and that it should be allowed to take the fight to Putin in any way it sees fit.”
Russian propaganda is attempting to downplay the significance of the Ukrainian offensive by crafting a specific narrative in the media. To minimize panic, terms like “voluntary evacuation” are being used; in the Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk regions, a counterterrorist operation (CTO) regime is being introduced instead of martial law. The introduction of the CTO legal regime expands the powers of the FSB, which means that this special service, rather than the military, bears full responsibility for the course and outcomes of this CTO. This has caused outrage and dissatisfaction among Russian military bloggers, who have accused the authorities of hiding the scale of the invasion following a comment by Maria Zakharova that “the attack on Kursk is just another terrorist act.”
The goal of enemy propaganda aimed at the Ukrainian audience, besides spreading narratives about Ukraine’s “suicidal attack” and the need to “generate media attention,” is to promote claims of “unfulfilled expectations” by the Ukrainian command regarding the weakening of other frontlines, allegedly disrupted peace initiatives by Ukraine, and mass killings of civilians.
“After Kursk, There Will Be No Negotiations with Ukraine”
On August 8, during a meeting with security service representatives and regional governors focused on the events in the Kursk region, Putin stated that, in his view, Ukraine is “seeking to improve its negotiating position in the future” by taking control of parts of Russian territory. In response to these actions by the Ukrainian army, the Russian president questioned the feasibility of negotiations with Ukraine:
“But what negotiations can there be with people who indiscriminately strike at civilians, at civilian infrastructure, or attempt to create threats to nuclear energy facilities? What can we even discuss with them?”
The rhetoric of the Kremlin and Putin himself diverges from Russia’s real actions. Despite statements about a willingness for peace, Putin continues to engage in new offensive operations. However, in the Kremlin’s view, peace equates to Ukraine’s capitulation, and there were no signs of genuine Russian readiness for negotiations even before the hostilities in Kursk began. On the other hand, Ukraine is ready for a just peace and has developed a formula to achieve it, which Russian propaganda still tries to undermine.
Putin’s words were picked up by pro-Russian channels targeting the Ukrainian audience, which began spreading claims that the Kursk offensive supposedly made peace talks impossible. One Telegram channel with a million followers reported that “one of the main goals of Zelenskyy’s Kursk adventure is to disrupt peace negotiations. Zelenskyy doesn’t need peace because he would lose power; he needs a long war and perpetual personal rule.” This narrative also continued the theme of alleged power usurpation in Ukraine and the supposed establishment of an authoritarian regime under Zelenskyy.
Another similar message accused the Ukrainian president of deliberately sabotaging alternative peace plans proposed by China and Hungary. According to this propaganda channel, Zelenskyy “lied about peace negotiations,” and the main goal of the offensive was supposedly to escalate the conflict further. The same channel also claimed that by escalating the situation, Ukraine is trying to provoke Russia into using tactical nuclear weapons, which would force the West to increase its support for Kyiv.
Another channel with over a million subscribers posted a message calling the UAF’s offensive actions in Kursk a “Bankova’s geopolitical failure,” alleging that “all attempts by the President’s Office to establish productive relations with the Global South ahead of the announced second Peace Summit have been destroyed.” The channel predicts that after such an invasion, Ukraine “will turn almost the entire Global South against itself, which will now take Russia’s side.” However, the propagandists did not provide clear reasoning as to why the countries of the Global South would change their stance on supporting Ukraine. The only justification for this prediction was the claim that after the offensive, Ukraine “became the aggressor” in the eyes of the Global South.
Thus, propagandists are trying to influence Ukrainian audiences by promoting narratives that Russia, Hungary, China, and the countries of the Global South are interested in establishing peace, while Ukraine and the West are pursuing a “deliberate escalation of the conflict” to weaken Russia and deepen the cycle of violence.
“The Russian Army Is Not Planning to Weaken Other Frontlines”
In Ukrainian media, there have been speculations that the purpose of the Kursk operation is to force Russia to redeploy combat units from other frontlines. In response, enemy propaganda has either outright denied the transfer of Russian troops to the Kursk region or deliberately downplayed its significance. For example, a pro-Russian Telegram channel with one million subscribers claimed that “contrary to the strategic plan of Zelenskyy and Yermak in the Kursk region, Russia will not redeploy forces from the front.” This statement is false: analysts from Politico confirmed on August 13 that Russia had indeed relocated some of its troops from the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson sectors. However, to refute this fact, propagandists have been citing an Economist article from August 11, which, according to sources in the Ukrainian General Staff, mentioned that Russia had engaged far fewer troops from the “vital Donbas front” than from the Kharkiv sector.
Despite claims of no redeployment of Russian troops, propagandists remain silent about the fact that Russian conscripts are being forced to sign contracts and go into combat. Evidence of this can be found in a petition to the Russian president, where conscripts’ mothers demand that Putin immediately arrange a prisoner exchange and grant them the status of “combat veterans.” The petition also places the blame for the capture of conscripts on the fighters from the Akhmat unit: “This criminal cowardice [of Akhmat — DM] led to the capture of part of Russian territory and the capture of conscripted servicemen.”
“The Operation’s Failure Is Imminent”
Propagandists also describe the Kursk offensive as “doomed to fail,” citing logistical issues and drawing comparisons to the beginning of the Russian invasion. Two Telegram channels with a combined reach of 2 million users promote the narrative that the Ukrainian army is repeating Russia’s mistake by advancing rapidly into enemy territory and stretching its supply lines, making its flanks “an easy target.” These propagandists are attempting to convince their audiences that Ukraine, like Russia in 2022, will eventually have to withdraw its forces from unfavorable positions in Kursk. Such a scenario, they claim, would be a “disaster for Ukraine,” predicting “the collapse of the front and the morale.”
The ultimate outcome of the operation in Kursk remains unknown, as does the specific objective set by Ukraine’s military and political leadership. Therefore, arguments like “withdrawing Ukrainian troops from Kursk would be a catastrophe” do not hold water. For instance, the troops could be withdrawn after completing their objectives.
Additionally, several Telegram channels are claiming that the Kursk offensive is Bankova’s last attempt to turn the tide of the war or that it is an “agony that will lead to irreversible fatal consequences.” These messages are designed to incite public opposition against the Ukrainian government in the event of a troop withdrawal from the Kursk region and to destabilize the situation in the country. Propagandists are compelled to fabricate reasons for dissatisfaction and continue trying to turn their audience against the President of Ukraine, his team, and the military leadership, especially considering that Ukraine has not officially announced the objectives of the operation in Kursk.
In contrast, the political goals mentioned by Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, in his interview have largely been achieved: the Ukrainian offensive has brought the war to Russian territory and demonstrated the incompetence of Russia’s civilian and military leadership. Additionally, as a result of the operation, hundreds of captured Russian soldiers, including Kadyrovites and FSB officers will be able to be exchanged for Ukrainian POWs and captured civilians. However, cutting off Russian army supply lines and pushing Russian artillery further from the Ukrainian border remain ongoing tasks.
“Ukrainian Soldiers Are Killing Civilians”
Since the start of the Ukrainian offensive operation in Kursk on August 6, Russian Telegram channels have begun accusing the Ukrainian military of crimes against civilians. Several propaganda channels have spread messages about the interrogation of a Ukrainian prisoner who allegedly confessed that they “were ordered to shoot Kursk residents on the spot.” These channels also claimed the kidnapping of local residents by Ukrainian soldiers, citing the example of two residents from the village of Poroz, who were allegedly captured by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF).
To support the narrative of alleged “atrocities by the Ukrainian army,” enemy propaganda has employed tactics of demonizing the Ukrainian military and glorifying “ordinary Russians.” An example of the former is a message on a channel with an audience of 60,000 subscribers, which claimed that “Ukrainian Nazis shot a person with cerebral palsy.” Ukrainian soldiers were depicted as murderers of civilians, supposedly shooting at locals’ vehicles and killing people with disabilities.
Another trend in Russian propaganda has been the portrayal of “heroic deeds of ordinary Russians,” exemplified by a post on the RT In Russian Telegram channel, which was later shared by another propaganda channel with 3 million subscribers. This post told the story of a “father of many children who walked 25 kilometers to Sudzha under UAF machine gun fire to save his family.” The Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) has already debunked this and similar fake stories, citing the lack of evidence. According to the NSDC, these accusations by Russian propagandists are based on unverified testimonies and fabricated videos. The NSDC reported that these messages are part of the Kremlin’s information strategy in response to the events in the Kursk region.
Russian social media groups have also seen accusations against the Ukrainian side of allegedly using chemical weapons, with propagandists reporting two supposed instances of chemical poisoning. However, no evidence of such weapon use was provided by the propagandists, aside from the claims of Kadyrovites.
Russian propagandists are trying to discredit the Ukrainian army by accusing it of allegedly killing civilians and using chemical weapons, thereby committing war crimes and violating international law. This propaganda effort aims to portray Ukraine as the aggressor, supported by fabricated “eyewitness accounts” and videos of Ukrainian prisoners confessing to crimes against locals. These actions are also intended to influence Western public opinion and put pressure on Ukraine’s Western partners, who are indirectly blamed for these alleged crimes due to their support of the Ukrainian army.
The topic of Ukraine’s operation in Kursk remains a central focus for enemy propaganda, which resorts to speculation and the fabrication of fakes in an attempt to discredit the UAF. Ukrainian pro-Russian Telegram channels primarily focus their audience’s attention on the idea of the Kursk operation’s failure and the inevitable collapse of the frontline. Reports about the events in Kursk are often intertwined with recurring claims of Zelenskyy’s supposed authoritarian rule, the disregard of peace initiatives, and the incapacity of Ukraine to act independently. Russian propagandists, meanwhile, emphasize the alleged crimes of the Ukrainian army and the successes of their own military countermeasures.
Additionally, propagandists are attempting to frame the border breach as a “deception” by the Ukrainian leadership, which is advancing instead of surrendering, supposedly giving Russia a pretext to withdraw its previously stated peace proposals.
Main page illustration and infographic by Nataliya Lobach
