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Russian propagandists on Telegram channels are trying to extract maximum benefit from Russia's ballistic missile strike with the "Oreshnik" and the massive attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.
On November 21, Russian forces launched a missile strike using a ballistic missile on the territory of the Pivdenmash plant in Dnipro. Shortly after, Vladimir Putin addressed the public, announcing that the strike was allegedly carried out using a new intermediate-range missile called "Oreshnik." He also stated that the attack was a "response" to Western countries' authorization of long-range strikes on military targets within Russia's territory.
The theme of "responding" to this authorization dominated Russian propaganda prior to the "Oreshnik" strike, gaining new rhetorical "fuel" afterward. An analysis of messages in Russian Telegram channels reveals how the "new" missile's ability to carry nuclear warheads, along with attacks on Ukraine's energy sector, is being used to intimidate Ukrainians.
How to sell the "Oreshnik"
Regarding the strike on the Pivdenmash plant, Russian propaganda Telegram channels, posing as Ukrainian ones, adopted two contradictory narratives. The first claims the "Oreshnik" attack was merely a political gesture, lacking direct military objectives, causing minimal (so far) damage, and intended as a warning to Ukraine and its Western allies to cease using Western weapons for strikes on Russian territory.
The second narrative alleges that the Ukrainian government knew about the attack but failed to warn Dnipro residents because they "don't care."
"Today's session of the Verkhovna Rada was canceled due to an increased threat of missile strikes… The residents of Dnipro are like, 'Wait, you could do that?'" an anonymous Telegram channel with over 400,000 subscribers ironically commented.
The same channel claimed in another post that Ukrainians "weren't warned," even though Russians allegedly informed the West about the missile launch, leading to the closure of embassies. The propagandists ignore the fact that the embassies were closed in Kyiv while the strike occurred in Dnipro, meaning the exact location of the attack was unknown to both the West and Ukraine. The logical impossibility of warning residents of a specific city about a precise ballistic missile strike, which cities across Ukraine face nearly daily, does not concern the propagandists. Their main goal is to shift responsibility and emotional backlash from the actual perpetrators—Russia's military and leadership—to the Ukrainian government.
As for the first narrative, which frames the "Oreshnik" strike as a warning, anonymous Telegram channels claim that the missile was equipped with mock warheads without explosives and caused "minor" damage: "Just as we suspected, it was a signal, not a strike. Putin demonstrated delivery capability."
However, Ukrainians should not rejoice, as the next strike might be "not just a regular warhead but tactical nuclear weapons," wrote a channel with over a million subscribers. Allegedly, it all depends on whether Ukraine continues to use Western weapons for strikes on Russian territory. In such a case, Ukrainians are promised not only nuclear strikes but also electricity, heating, and water outages, destruction of bridges and tunnels, hyperinflation, and food shortages. Propagandists equate the current situation with the start of the full-scale invasion, habitually blaming the war on Ukraine's leadership: "It all depends on Zelensky again, just like in 2022, when he could have initially implemented the Minsk agreements and later the Istanbul agreements. But in both cases, he escalated, causing ordinary Ukrainians to suffer."
"Ukrainian" pro-Russian Telegram channels differ little from regular Kremlin propaganda in their attempts to deflect responsibility for the war. The only distinction is that they don’t need to explain the essence of the new "escalation." Unlike Russian spokespeople, they don't have to engage in verbal gymnastics to differentiate between "old Russian territories" and the occupied Ukrainian ones, where Ukraine has long been striking military targets with Western weapons.
"Atlantists want a 'dirty' escalation"
Propagandists are confident that Putin's "warnings" will be ignored by Ukraine. This might be due to the fact that the Russian army, without any prior warnings, destroys Ukrainian cities with all types of weapons it can reach them with, excluding nuclear ones. These weapons target critical civilian infrastructure, residential buildings, hospitals, and schools, while nuclear arms remain unused for international political reasons largely unrelated to Ukraine's actions or inaction. However, propagandists claim that Ukraine’s strikes using Western weapons lack any direct military goal of weakening Russian offensives, framing them instead as purely "provocations" aimed at "escalating the conflict." Ukrainians, they say, should prepare for the worst, as unlike the "kind Putin," who promised in his address to "warn" the Ukrainian population about further "Oreshnik" strikes in advance, "Zelensky won’t warn anyone. On the contrary, he needs disaster and more civilian casualties to capitalize on them." Interestingly, in the same statement, an anonymous Telegram channel with over a million subscribers suggests that Putin turn his "warnings" into a military tactic and predicts its effects:
"Ukraine will face mass panic if Putin, for instance, announces that starting from a certain date, we will strike these '50 locations,' and then actually hits one of them. Millions of refugees will flood Europe again. The economy will collapse entirely. The hryvnia will crash."
However, propagandists claim that Kyiv is not the only party interested in escalation. They cite Politico, noting that U.S. President Joe Biden requested an additional $24 billion from Congress to support Ukraine and replenish Pentagon stockpiles, advancing the narrative that Democrats need this funding to "prolong the war as much as possible, preventing Trump from fulfilling his promises of achieving peace in the Ukrainian crisis." According to propagandists, "Soros loyalists and bureaucrats" are also working against Trump, as it is "essential for them to continue the war that has made them multimillionaires."
They also quote U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who announced continued support for Ukraine by G7 countries through 2025 and confirmed new sanctions against Russia.
"Democrats are fully 'loading' the Ukrainian conflict to make it as difficult as possible for Trump to resolve it by finding a compromise between Kyiv and Moscow," propagandists claim, commenting on this news.
They do not, however, address statements by Russian officials declaring the impossibility of "freezing" the war and the necessity of achieving the "objectives of the Special Military Operation."
Moreover, propagandists argue that the demonstrative "Oreshnik" strike not only failed to make Western leaders, particularly from "Anglo-Saxon" countries, reconsider their stance but instead worked to their advantage. Since the Western missile strike on Russian territory affected only an engineering plant in Dnipro, Americans, and Brits, have nothing to worry about. In the propagandists' interpretation, their primary goal is to conceal their own "schemes" from Trump.
"The globalists encountered no significant new obstacles after the 'Oreshnik' demonstration. Putin made it clear that there would be no direct strike on the West. The main burden of retaliation will fall on Ukraine—and they [Western leaders] couldn’t care less. As we said, their main goal is to prevent Trump from exposing their schemes. Even a radiation-contaminated territory would suit them better than peace," claimed an anonymous Telegram channel with over 400,000 subscribers.
The same channel points to the confirmation from White House Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby regarding authorization of strikes on Russian territory as supposed proof of this approach: "For now, everything is going according to the globalists' plan. Now Putin will have to respond following his (Kirby’s – DM’s note) announcement."
Pro-Russian Telegram channels claim that to avoid a potential "audit from Trump" and prevent him from winning the Nobel Peace Prize, "globalists" are allegedly prepared to do anything. They cite remarks from FSB head Alexander Bortnikov, who claims that "the Anglo-Saxons are pushing Kyiv toward dangerous escalation, including acts of nuclear terrorism." They add, "This may mean that in response to the 'Oreshnik' strikes, Zelensky is preparing dirty bombs… and Russia will only be able to respond again by striking Ukraine—this time, to the very end."
Once again, in the propagandists' narrative, Russia can only "respond"—be it to long-range Western weapons or a "dirty" nuclear bomb. Still, agitprop reassures its audience that a global "nuclear apocalypse" resulting from a direct confrontation between Russia, the U.S., and Britain is unlikely, despite claims that the "military conflict between Russia, the U.S., and Britain has reached a level close to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962." However, the continuation of the war involving European countries is entirely plausible according to several anonymous Telegram channels, which urge Russians not to get too optimistic about Trump’s promises to dismantle NATO: "The U.S.’s presence in NATO provided some kind of insurance. But a military alliance without the U.S. and Britain, led by globalists, could well wage war against Russia in the name of globalists in London and Washington."
There will be definitely no light now
Propagandists also face the task of linking Russian attacks on civilian energy infrastructure to Ukrainian strikes on military targets using Western weapons. This is not an easy assignment, as Russian energy infrastructure attacks have been ongoing since 2022. In contrast, Ukraine only obtained broad authorization to use Western weapons on Russian territory two years later. To accuse Ukraine of "escalation," propaganda exploits every possible opportunity. For instance, it accuses Ukraine of using ATACMS missiles to "attack the substation of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant," citing as its source Russian "opposition" journalist Yulia Latynina.
"The President's Office is deliberately escalating and targeting the substations of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant so the Kremlin can justify destroying our energy system," comments an anonymous Telegram channel with an audience of over one million subscribers.
Citing "their own sources," propagandists also report that the Kremlin is allegedly coordinating lists for a massive combined strike on Ukraine, of course as a "response" and due to the use of Western weapons.
"'Geran' drones will be fired en masse, followed by 'Kalibr' and 'X' missiles, then 'Iskanders' and 'Oniks,' and finally the 'Oreshnik' as the grand finale... Most likely, many will target western Ukraine and Kyiv. Many will strike logistics and railways. Many will hit energy infrastructure and possibly dams," wrote propagandists on November 26.
They also advised Ukrainians to "stock up on water, food, and charge everything they can," as if Ukrainians had not already been living for two years under the constant threat of a humanitarian catastrophe caused by the Russian army. In some frontline territories, such a catastrophe has already occurred.
On the morning of November 28, Russian forces indeed launched another massive missile-and-drone attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. This attack was one of many similar assaults carried out long before the use of Western weapons on Russian territory. The "Oreshnik" was not used in this instance.
However, Putin mentioned his new "favorite toy" on November 28 during a speech at a CSTO meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan. There, he stated that in the case of a "massive, collective deployment of these missiles... in a single strike, their power would be comparable to that of nuclear weapons." He also threatened to use the "Oreshnik" against "decision-making centers" in Kyiv. Predictably, this would be "in response to the use of Western weapons on the territories of the Bryansk and Kursk regions." Why such a reaction did not occur following the use of ATACMS or Storm Shadow missiles on, for example, occupied Crimea, Putin did not explain.
Russian agitational propaganda, positioning itself as "Ukrainian" Telegram channels, praised Putin and adjusted its forecasts, promising the "Oreshnik" would be used in the future.
"So, the current and recent shelling is part of the response. Somewhere, the 'Oreshnik' will still be used. For now, everything is proceeding as we expected: a very measured response, without extremes," propagandists write.
The fact that they had recently predicted nuclear strikes has been conveniently forgotten by the anonymous authors—at least for now.
Main page illustration: Natalia Lobach
