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Pro-Russian Telegram channels have intensified their messaging about an "unbearable" winter, full of blackouts that Ukrainians supposedly will not survive.
Russia continues to destroy Ukraine’s power generation systems by targeting critical infrastructure. If we take into account that nuclear, thermal, and hydropower plants are the main power generation capacities in Ukraine, then according to Oleksandr Vizir, head of the NGO "Energy Efficiency and Energy Conservation Association," as of September, not a single thermal power plant in Ukraine remains undamaged. Journalists at Politico suggest that paralyzing just three nuclear power plants this winter could lead to victory for Russia in the "energy war," as Ukraine would then be left without its primary energy sources.
Since the start of the large-scale war, and particularly in the summer of 2024, Ukraine has periodically implemented scheduled power outages due to Russian strikes on power generation and distribution facilities. In August, Russian forces conducted one of the largest attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure using drones and cruise missiles. As a result, according to Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s power system has now lost over 9 GW of capacity, equivalent to the peak summer consumption in countries like the Netherlands or Finland.
As of September 7, shutdown schedules were halted—but between September 13 and 18, Detector Media observed an increase in reports about the consequences of these attacks, even if no new strikes were to occur.
Using the Semantrum tool, we analyzed over four thousand propaganda messages related to the upcoming winter published within the analyzed period of September 13-18, 2024.
Russian terror consistently uses the narrative that Ukrainians live without electricity, gas, or water. This narrative is employed to emphasize the "incompetence" of the Ukrainian government, which is portrayed as unable to restore essential services for its citizens following the strikes quickly. Previously, propagandists claimed that life in Ukraine would soon become "unbearable" and that more people would die from the lack of electricity than from nuclear weapons.
By creating the image of a "country unfit for living," the authors aim to sow panic among Ukrainians, destabilizing their morale and creating the impression that nothing will improve. Such messages were prevalent in our analysis.
For example, a Telegram channel affiliated with Russian propagandist Solovyov (with over 1 million subscribers) claimed that people in Ukraine would soon die from hypothermia, as heating this winter is "out of the question." The channel stated:
"Hundreds of millions of pounds are being allocated to prepare Ukraine for winter. Naturally, this causes frustration among a significant part of British society: if there is already a high death rate from hypothermia in the UK, how can they hope to prevent such a catastrophe abroad? They should be taking care of themselves first."
It further argued that "even if the funds were allocated appropriately, Ukrainians would still freeze and perish."
Simultaneously, Russian agitprop launched another narrative, trying to convince Ukrainians of how "well" things are going in Russia. Messages circulated online about the high prices of goods in Ukraine, suggesting that, since prices for food in Ukrainian stores are rising, Ukraine should "surrender to Russia because everything is cheaper there," with the implication that Russia’s economic situation is much better.
The propagandists also attached price tags from Ukrainian supermarkets, comparing them to those in Russia.
Photo — Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security
In the context of full-scale war and continuous Russian terror, it has become significantly more complicated to grow vegetables, and Ukraine lacks sufficient internal reserves. Imported goods are more expensive, so stores are indeed seeing price increases. However, the Russians are exploiting this fact, playing on Ukrainians' emotions and calling for peace on their terms, claiming the situation is "hopeless."
A pro-Russian Telegram channel with about 500,000 subscribers also manipulated the "winter issue":
"Ukraine's energy system is barely functioning as it is and may not survive the next winter... European aid is dwindling as reserves are exhausted, so what can Ukraine do but make concessions to Russia?"
During a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 32% of respondents agreed that, for the sake of achieving peace quickly and preserving independence, Ukraine could indeed give up some of its territories (the survey was conducted via telephone interviews from May 16 to 22, 2024. It included 1,067 respondents from all regions under Ukrainian control, with a margin of error around 5%). Although this shows that the number of people willing to make territorial concessions for peace has increased, they still represent a minority — 32%.
A Russian Telegram channel with fewer than 10,000 subscribers asks, both rhetorically and of its readers:
"How is Ukraine still holding on after such heavy shelling?" The propagandist material itself discusses:
"The same Kharkiv had a population of about 2 million at the beginning of the special military operation. By April 2024, this number had dropped to 12 million. It's likely even lower today, as a new wave of evacuation began after the summer strikes on the energy system."
The authors are convinced that this will happen in every city and that soon Russia will "drive" Ukrainians out of their own country.
Ultimately, through fear and intimidation, the occupiers seek to destabilize internal sentiments and force the Ukrainian government to agree to a peace deal favorable to Russia, which would involve Ukraine giving up territories temporarily occupied by the aggressors. The enemy propaganda claims that alleged agreements between Russia and the West have twice saved Ukraine from "Holodomor."
After the first large-scale attacks, Russian propagandists tried to discredit the Ukrainian government, pushing the narrative that the "outdated" Ukrainian energy infrastructure was one of the primary causes of power outages. According to them, other contributing factors to the blackouts included government inaction and inadequate maintenance of energy facilities.
Alongside these fearmongering messages, Telegram also circulated misleading narratives about the causes of the Kursk operation, claiming that Ukraine is expecting offensive actions from Russia, including attacks on critical infrastructure, and is, therefore, launching its own offensive to preempt its opponents. According to Russian propaganda, the "Kursk adventure" is intended to prevent Ukraine from losing, even on the "energy front." In other words, Kremlin supporters justified the offensive in Kursk by arguing that Ukraine fears the "power" of the Russian army and thus resorts to incursions into Russian territory.
Nevertheless, Russia continues to bombard Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, needing no justification — whether or not an active offensive in Kursk is ongoing. Dmytro Sakharuk, Executive Director of DTEK, quoted by Interfax, said the likelihood of a blackout, meaning an uncontrolled shutdown of Ukraine’s entire energy system, is low, particularly "thanks to all the measures taken over the past two and a half years."
On the other hand, energy expert Andriy Zakrevskiy told Kyiv 24 that, in the worst-case scenario, power outages could last up to 12 hours a day during the heating season.
According to an assessment by the Kyiv School of Economics, the total direct damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure as of January 2024 amounted to nearly $155 billion. Despite Russia’s ongoing bombardment, this has not made the country uninhabitable. Authorities are working to address the issues and are certainly not abandoning consumers of public services.
There is indeed a capacity shortage in Ukraine's energy system caused by hostile strikes on the country's energy infrastructure. However, the situation is not as "catastrophic" as propagandists on Telegram would like to portray, exploiting the crisis for their agenda. Russian plans to completely cut off Ukraine’s power have failed, thanks to the tireless efforts of Ukrainian energy workers, the support of international partners, and the adaptability of Ukraine’s citizens and businesses in coping with the energy crisis.
Main page illustration by Nataliya Lobach.
