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Detector Media sums up the media year of 2023 with traditional reviews of key events and trends in the world of media. The texts are organized under the tag “#Results of the year 2023.”
The Detector Media Research Center also presents its findings, particularly analyzing the global context. Read here about how Russian propaganda attempted to polarize Ukrainian society through Telegram.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies in London published its annual review of armed conflicts, noting an increase in violence in many regions. Ukraine, the Gaza Strip, Nagorno-Karabakh, Sudan, and Congo are just a few of the hotspots in the modern world. This year’s report covers 183 conflicts, a record number for the last three decades. Researchers note that modern conflicts increasingly involve various non-state armed groups, becoming less regional and more internationalized. As a result of the diminished influence of traditional conflict resolution actors, resolving them has become complicated significantly. Moreover, the accelerated internationalization of local wars has increased the average duration of armed escalations over the last three decades. Notably, these trends are evident in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Firstly, it involves key geopolitical players — from international organizations to major regional participants from different continents. Secondly, in 2023, there was a peak of activity (and de-facto deactivation) of quasi-military formations such as the Wagner group within the Russian army, recognized by the Ukrainian parliament as an international criminal organization.
According to analysts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the trend of competition between major powers and developing states resembles the proxy wars of the Cold War era (i.e., those led by puppets, proxies of big powers — DM). Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 escalated the situation to a new level, intensifying geopolitical differences between Western states and those partially undermining democratic principles and the existing international order. Through its extensive propaganda, the Kremlin exploits global conflicts to advance its goals through information manipulation. This article summarizes the year 2023 and explores how propagandists described events in Nagorno-Karabakh, Israel, and Niger.
South Caucasus
The war against Ukraine has impacted crises across the world, with its influence also observed in the South Caucasus. Two years after the last war over Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a new confrontation flared up. In mid-September 2023, Azerbaijan launched an “anti-terrorist operation” in Nagorno-Karabakh — a historical region on Azerbaijani territory populated by Armenians. In the early 1990s, this region declared independence from Azerbaijan after a war and existed for thirty years as an unrecognized republic. The Armenians lost the decisive war in 2020, after which the Armenian population of Karabakh was effectively surrounded, unable to receive military support from Yerevan. This led to their quick capitulation in 2023. Against the backdrop of the earlier lost war, Armenia was not confident in its military strength and feared the conflict might spill over into its main territory. Ultimately, Yerevan no longer believed in Moscow’s advocacy as an ally within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). As a result of the Azerbaijani military operation, which lasted one day, from September 19 to 20, 2023, the local armed formations of Karabakh (Armenians call this region Artsakh) capitulated. Subsequently, protests erupted in Armenia, calling for the overthrow of the government that allowed this “defeat and national humiliation.”
Russian propaganda accused the Armenian government, especially Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, of “betrayal” and capitulation of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan while attempting to justify Azerbaijan’s actions. Propagandists blamed Armenia’s loss of the Nagorno-Karabakh region on its “pro-Western pivot” and provocations against Russia and Azerbaijan. They insisted that Western interference in the region’s affairs destroyed the 2020 ceasefire, which, according to propaganda, was beneficial to both sides. According to the agreement at the time, Russian “peacekeepers” were stationed in the region, in particular, to guarantee the security of the Armenian population of Karabakh. However, in 2023, they did not intervene in Azerbaijan’s operation, which led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Armenians from Karabakh to Armenia.
Since Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan criticized the Russian peacekeeping contingent as ineffective, propaganda sought to create the opposite impression. Russian propaganda tries to impose the false notion that Moscow is the only guarantor of security in the region while the West is by no means a reliable ally. However, in September 2023, Russia did nothing to stop Azerbaijan’s so-called anti-terrorist operation, after which Nagorno-Karabakh came under the control of Azerbaijan. The activities of the Russian peacekeepers, stationed there under the terms of the 2020 ceasefire, were limited to assisting in the evacuation of the Armenian population, which almost completely left the unrecognized republic by early October due to fear of Azerbaijani reprisals. Since 2020, Armenia has been trying to diversify its foreign partners by increasing interaction with Washington and Brussels. According to Pashinyan and his supporters, this strategy aims to reduce dependence on Moscow’s support and expand its geopolitical possibilities.
However, propagandists continued to insist that there is no alternative solution in the South Caucasus without Russian involvement. Such rhetoric is designed to remind Yerevan of the practical realities of its geopolitical position.
However, it is noteworthy that Russia did not respond to the deployment of troops into Nagorno-Karabakh and the restoration of the territorial status quo with Armenia. Although Russia had repeatedly participated in previous phases of the Armenia-Azerbaijan confrontation, this time, the Kremlin did not react to Baku’s actions against its long-time ally, Armenia. This can be explained in part by the fact that Russian troops are concentrated in Ukraine, and it was impractical for the Kremlin to disperse them to other regions. Additionally, due to Western sanctions pressure, Moscow cannot afford to sever ties with neutral hubs such as Azerbaijan or its ally Turkey.
Middle East
On October 7, 2023, hundreds of armed Hamas militants crossed from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel. This ground attack was preceded by a massive rocket barrage on Israeli cities. This strike caught all Israeli security forces by surprise. Armed individuals indiscriminately killed civilians, attacked settlements and a music festival, and took hostages, placing them in underground tunnels. Russia used the war in Israel and the Gaza Strip as a convenient disinformation tool to promote its own agenda.
“Escalation in the Middle East – the fault of the United States.” Propaganda accuses the U.S. of escalating the situation while trying to present it as a diplomatic failure of the Americans. In this way, the Kremlin sought to shift the blame from the terrorists to the ally of one of the parties, implying that the Pentagon is the real root of the conflict. In this situation, Russia embodies anti-Americanism, and the escalation in the Middle East is portrayed as a proxy war with the U.S. In reality, the U.S. has been seeking ways to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for many decades, particularly to increase the effectiveness of its international policy by reconciling its key ally, Israel, with other regional partners such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. The Trump administration pursued a pro-Israel policy, for example, opening the American embassy in Jerusalem, which is contentious for both Arabs and Jews. This caused additional outrage in the Arab world. In contrast, the Biden administration tried to restore balance in its Middle East policy, reinstating aid programs for Palestinians.
“War is the new normal.” Propaganda presents wars as a common phenomenon of our modern age. As media consumers’ sensitivity threshold to images of violence decreases, wrong perceptions can emerge of war as a normal global process. Thus, the war against Ukraine seems less horrific and less bloody, and the killing of civilians does not provoke the justified outrage or empathy it should.
“Ukraine sold Western weapons to Hamas.” As supposed proof of this falsehood, propagandists spread a video purporting to show that Middle Eastern social media groups report that most of the RPGs (rocket-propelled grenades) used by Hamas against Israel were purchased from Ukraine. Another misinformation trigger was a June statement by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding weapons supplied to Ukraine. Netanyahu’s words were taken out of context, resulting in a narrative that he was concerned that weapons transferred to Ukraine by the West would be used against Israel.
As a matter of fact, Iran supplies the majority of Hamas’ weapons. Such rhetoric reflects Iran’s long-standing ambitions to surround Israel with legions of militarized militants, increasingly armed with sophisticated weaponry. Historically, Hamas has maintained a certain independence from Tehran and is not a full-fledged Iranian proxy group, unlike Lebanon’s Hezbollah. However, in recent years, Hamas has received technical support from Iran in missile and drone production. Therefore, baseless accusations against Kyiv of supporting militants are yet another attempt to undermine Ukraine’s international image.
Amplification of Russian anti-semitic discourse. The Kremlin is intimidating those Russians who moved to Israel and supported Ukraine; if they now want to return to Russia, they are threatened with harsh treatment, metaphorically referred to as “Magadan” (a reference to a city known for its harsh labor camps). Supporters of Putin’s regime, including Putin himself, are increasingly indulging in anti-Semitic language. In this regard, late Putinism resembles late Stalinism. Joseph Stalin, who did not exhibit anti-Semitism in the early years of his rule, began to fight against “Zionists” and “rootless cosmopolitans,” essentially targeting the Jewish minority after World War II. We wrote more about this here.
The “denazification message” played a key role in justifying the war in Ukraine, so Russia tried to invoke these misinformation narratives again. However, in response to the escalation in the Middle East, an anti-Semitic incident flared up in Makhachkala, Russia. A mob of aggressively-minded people attempted to find Jews at the airport. Following this episode, the Kremlin’s anti-Semitic rhetoric intensified — Russia simultaneously used anti-Semitic rhetoric against Ukraine and its leaders and also accused Ukraine of anti-Semitism. In this way, propaganda claimed that the incidents of searching for Jews at the Makhachkala airport occurred due to calls from a Telegram channel supposedly operated from Ukraine. This was reported by Ukrainska Pravda with references to Russian channels The Moscow Times and Gulagu.net and the propagandistic RIA Novosti and TASS.
Against this backdrop, propagandists also stoked the flames of the conspiracy theory about the so-called “Heavenly Jerusalem” or “New Khazaria” in southern Ukraine. As the theory goes, a certain international secret body is implementing a cunning plan for the mass resettlement of Jews to Ukraine (Crimea, southern regions, and also Uman). According to their version, this territory is to be organized into a new Jewish state, which will become a full or partial replacement for the current Israel. Therefore, Russia’s full-scale invasion is part of a grand plan for “cleansing” territories and preparing for resettlement, and the new escalation between Israel and Hamas in Palestine accelerates the creation of the “New Jerusalem.”
The African Continent
According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, nearly 200 million people worldwide live under the control of 450 armed groups. This phenomenon is particularly prevalent in African countries, where almost 300 such groups operate, but less so in Asia, America, Europe, and Eurasia, where 83, 68, and 14 such groups operate, respectively.
The USSR traditionally actively cooperated with various African countries, thus trying to compete with the USA. Russia “inherited” these connections and is still trying to maintain influence in the region in various ways. Having started the war against Ukraine and facing the threat of international isolation, Moscow first got involved in the Syrian war on the side of President Bashar al-Assad and then began to look for new allies on the African continent. In particular, Russia has economic ties and military-technical cooperation with three main regional strategic partners — Algeria, Egypt, and South Africa. According to the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, arms supplies to Africa account for 30–40% of the total volume of Russian arms exports.
Overall, Africa has experienced more coups than any other continent. In recent years, there have been a series of coups in the region: in Mali, Chad, Guinea, Sudan, Niger, and Burkina Faso. In 2023, coups affected Niger and Gabon, while in Congo, an attempt was unsuccessful. The wave of regime changes in recent years is partly associated with Russia’s return to the region and the decline of Western, particularly French, influence. The Kremlin takes advantage of these political upheavals, offering relatively simple terms: Russia guarantees the security of the regime, often through mercenaries of the Wagner PMC, and in return, extracts money from the exploitation of local resources. None of the countries that have gone through coups have condemned Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. According to Matthias Basedau, political scientist and director of the German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Russian support for military juntas and authoritarian regimes could accelerate a “new fight for Africa.” African governments might attract non-Western foreign support or encourage Western countries to overlook authoritarian or corrupt governance to keep them in their “camp.”
Let’s examine the situation in Niger to demonstrate the manipulative strategies of Russian propaganda on the African continent. In July 2023, the incumbent head of state, Mohamed Bazoum, was restrained in the presidential palace in the country’s capital, Niamey, by soldiers of his guard. The Niger General Staff announced that the republic’s armed forces were siding with the rebellious presidential guard. Bazoum’s election in 2021 marked the first relatively democratic transfer of power in a country that has experienced four military coups since gaining independence from France in 1960. Under President Bazoum, Niger was a key ally in the region for the West, particularly France, which has a small military contingent in the country. The military coup poses significant risks of the country drifting towards Russia, as has already happened in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, where military juntas rule following recent coups.
“Ukraine is similar to Niger, which underwent a coup.” Pro-Russian Telegram channels used the coup in Niger to indirectly launch a whole bouquet of propagandistic messages and accusations through comparison with the situation in Ukraine: “The slaves (people of Niger) decided to overthrow the TNCs (transnational corporations) and change the vector. Do you think corporations will just allow this? Now they’ll compel the states nearby, where their puppets are in power, to send armies and reclaim the ‘master’s assets’... You know, what’s very similar between the situation in Niger and the Ukrainian crisis? In both Niger and Ukraine, the security concerns of a global player were violated... Ukraine threatened Russia’s physical security... Niger threatens France’s energy security... War is near.” On the one hand, this post refers to Niger’s legitimate government as a puppet of transnational corporations. On the other hand, it justifies Russian aggression against Ukraine by likening it to a hypothetical military intervention by France or its African allies to restore legitimate power in Niger. Such contradictions are typical of Russian propaganda, which can portray any event in the world as beneficial to Russia.
Russian Telegram channels spread an audio recording of the leader of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in which he supported the coup and called it a “fight against the colonizers.” Prigozhin also accused France of “economic crimes” regarding its uranium partnership with Niger, one of the world leaders in uranium mining (4.7% of global production in 2020). This discourse resonates with anti-colonial rhetoric, which will be discussed below.
Russia supports the so-called alter-globalist movements in Niger, which criticize current global economic policies, corporate practices, and institutions like the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and World Trade Organization. However, there are instances where local civil society representatives or unions call for the withdrawal of the French army from Niger while regularly using Russian symbolism. Furthermore, there is a plethora of local politicians sympathetic to Russia who maintain close ties with the Kremlin. The development of the pro-Russian movement in Niger occurs against the backdrop of France’s inability to combat the spread of jihadist terrorism in the Sahel, a region characterized by weak governance, corruption, a shift away from democracy, a lack of legitimacy in government, and human rights violations.
One of the main factors fueling the process in West Africa and the Sahel is the rejection of the consequences of French imperialism — the actual dependence on the French economy, business opportunities, and military support. Russia seeks to win the support of African countries primarily through the use of anti-colonial narratives, a topic that resonates with countries in the Global South. Accusations of neocolonialism suggest that after the formal political dissolution of empires, former Western metropoles continued to economically exploit their historical colonies economically, thus perpetuating global inequality.
The withdrawal of Western forces is likely to accelerate the spread of the wave of jihadists and coups to the western coast of the continent. At the same time, active military involvement of the West could strengthen anti-Western sentiments, especially against the backdrop of dissatisfaction with France and the influence of Russian propaganda in the region. EU countries need to develop a joint position that learns from past mistakes.
What to Expect in 2024
As we prepare to enter 2024, the world witnesses several points of escalation — from Europe to the Middle East — as well as a series of latent tension spots on the verge of explosion.
“Conflicts have become more complex, deadly, and harder to resolve. Concerns about the possibility of nuclear war have re-emerged. New potential domains of conflict and weapons of war are creating new ways in which humanity can annihilate itself.,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
Professor Paul Poast of the University of Chicago identifies three reasons for global military escalation. First, a cascade of coincidences: a number of frozen conflicts are reigniting anew, complemented by the emergence of new ones. Second, there is a fundamental change in the old geopolitical formation of Pax Americana after World War II. The USA can no longer exert influence over the preservation of lasting peace worldwide. In other words, many geopolitical centers have emerged, and the world is becoming increasingly multipolar. Third, global instability may be a result of Russia’s actions: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and Moscow’s decision to continue this war.
In 2024, Russia faces presidential elections. The topic of war is a recurring theme in Putin’s election program, and the theme of aggression is the foundation of his “triumphant” strategy. The hotspots of global conflicts worldwide help propaganda obscure the severity of Moscow’s crimes against Ukrainians. Putin is betting on the military card, and it is expected that in 2024, the stakes will only rise. Consequently, propagandistic manipulations of conflict and escalation issues will intensify.
